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Archives 12/30/01, 1/1/02, 1/2/02, 1/3/02, 1/4/02, 1/7/02, 1/8/02, 1/09/02, 1/10/02, 1/11/02, 1/14/02, 1/15/02, 1/16/02, 1/17/02, 1/18/02, 1/22/02, 1/23/02, 1/24/02, 1/25/02, 1/28/02, 1/29/02, 1/30/02, 1/31/02, 2/1/02, 2/4/02, 2/5/02, 2/06/02, 2/7/02, 2/9/02, 2/11/02, 2/12/02, 2/13/02, 2/14/02, 2/16/02, 2/19/02, 2/20/02, 2/21/02, 2/23/02, 2/25/02, 2/26/02, 2/27/02, 2/28/02, 3/1/02, 3/04/02, 3/05/02, 3/06/02, 3/7/02, 3/10/02,3/11/02, 3/12/02, 3/13/02, 3/14/02, 3/15/02, 3/18/02, 3/19/02, 3/20/02, 3/21/02, 3/22/02, 3/25/02, 3/26/02, 3/28/02, 3/30/02 4/1/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, 4/4/02, 4/6/02, 4/8/02, 4/9/02, 4/10/02, 4/11/02, 4/13/02, 4/15/02, 4/16/02, 4/17/02, 4/18/02, 4/20/02, 4/22/02, 4/23/02,4/24/02,4/25/02, 4/26/02, 4/27/02, 4/29/02, 4/30/02 5/01/02, 5/2/02, 5/4/02, 5/6/02, 5/07/02, 5/8/02, 5/09/02, 5/10/02, 5/13/02, 5/14/02, 5/15/02, 5/16/02, 5/17/02, 5/20/02, 5/21/02, 5/22/02, 5/23/02, 5/24/02, 5/28/02, 5/29/02, 5/30/02 6/01/02, 6/3/02, 6/4/02, 6/5/02, 6/6/02, 6/7/02, 6/10/02, 6/11/02, 6/12/02, 6/13/02, 6/14/02, 6/17/02, 6/18/02, 6/19/02, 6/20/02, 6/22/02, 6/24/02, 6/25/02, 6/26/02, 6/27/02, 6/30/02 7/1/02, 7/4/02, 7/5/02, 7/11/02, 7/14/02, 7/15/02, 7/16/02, 7/17/02, 7/18/02, 7/19/02, 7/22/02, 7/23/02, 7/24/02, 7/25/02, 7/27/02, 7/29/02, 7/30/02 8/1/02, 8/3/02, 8/5/02, 8/6/02, 8/7/02, 8/8/02, 8/10/02, 8/12/02, 8/13/02, 8/14/02, 8/15/02, 8/16/02, 8/19/02, 8/20/02, 8/21/02, 8/22/02, 8/23/02, 8/26/02, 8/27/02, 8/28/02, 8/29/02, 8/30/02 9/3/02, 9/4/02, 9/5/02. 9/6/02, 9/9/02, 9/10/02, 9/11/02, 9/12/02, 9/13/02, 9/16/02, 9/17/02, 9/18/02, 9/19/02, 9/20/02, 9/23/02, 9/24/02, 9/25/02, 9/26/02, 9/27/02, 9/30/02 10/1/02, 10/2/02, 10/3/02, 10/4/02, 10/7/02, 10/8/02, 10/9/02, 10/10/02, 10/11/02, 10/14/02, 10/15/02, 10/16/02, 10/17/02, 10/18/02, 10/21/02, 10/22/02, 10/23/02, 10/24/02, 10/25/02, 10/28/02, 10/29/02, 10/30/02, 10/31/02 11/1/02, 11/4/02, 11/5/02, 11/6/02, 11/7/02, 11/8/02, 11/11/02, 11/12/02, 11/13/02, 11/14/02, 11/15/02, 11/18/02, 11/19/02, 11/20/02, 11/21/02, 11/22/02, 11/25/02, 11/26/02, 11/27/02, 11/29/02 12/2/02,
12/3/02, 12/4/02,
12/5/02 1/1/03, 1/2/03, 1/03/03, 1/6/03, 1/7/03, 1/8/03, 1/9/03, 1/10/03, 1/13/03, 1/14/03, 1/15/03, 1/16/03, 1/17/03, 1/21/03, 1/22/03, 1/23/03, 1/24/03, 1/27/03, 1/28/03, 1/29/03, 1/30/03, 1/31/03 2/3/03, 2/4/03, 2/5/03, 2/6/03, 2/7/03, 2/10/03
 Doc's view of the Street. |
The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished weeknights by
8:30PM Happy Acres, Florida Time The American
Academy of Stock Proctology and Is your subscription up for renewal? If you want to renew, do nothing, unless your credit card has expired. Please be sure your credit card info is current. If your credit card has expired, you must enter the new expiration date in your Paypal account in order for your subscription to be processed. If you subscribed via Paypal, your subscription will be renewed for one year on the 90 day anniversary of your sign-up and your credit card will be charged. If you want to cancel, use the button at the bottom of the page. This applies only if you subscribed through Paypal. Mailed-in subscriptions are for 1 year. If you subscribed by prior contribution, I will send you a notice before your subscription expires. If you have any questions, see the subscription page and FAQ's. If you can't find the answer, email me. Big Fine Print Doc does not make trading recommendations. This update reports time cycle estimates and centered moving average projections based on the Hurst cycle analysis method, and other techniques. This publication is for entertainment and educational purposes only. Doc assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or inaccuracy of the estimates and projections presented. The market may or may not meet the projections. Stoolies should thoroughly familiarize themselves with the methodology before trading based on this method. Those who do not have the time or inclination to develop a trading strategy based on testing and research should not trade. Trade at your own risk. Yadda yadda. How's your motha? More disclaimers at the bottom of the page. Intraday Updates 2/12/03 12:30 PM 3 hour wavelet high is forming in conjunction with 1 day cycle reaction high. Doc expects downturn in next hour, with lows due between 2 and 4 PM. Cmaps are on chart. Chart below. Get regular updates throughout the day in Stooltrading. 9:15 AM Fucutures have been bobbing and weaving, trading in a range of 826-30 all night, essentially where the market closed yesterday. No change in outlook from yesterday's closing comment below. Intraday Tuesday - Stocks opened strong on anticipation of Al's Congressional soft shoe routine. Like the smarmy, ass kissing senators, the market's stage managers always applaud beforehand. Get the crowd whipped up, and then distribute. By 11:15, the 1 day cycle high was in. Then it was two steps down into the 1 day cycle low at 3:30, right on schedule. Suckers didn't know what hit them. The media of course blamed it on the Orange alert and Osama tape. Excuses, excuses. The 3 day cycle turned lower on the downturn, and the 8 day cycle appeared to abort early as well. Look for a 1 day cycle swup to continue tomorrow morning, with a high around 11 AM again. Depending on whether the 5 hour or 1 day cycle dominates, the down phase should last until 2PM or 3:30. A 3 day cycle cmap of 817 will come into view in the afternoon. Pre Market Update at 9:15 AM NY time. Get StoolieSignal Special offer here only! The cycle map below is en estimate of how the market might behave over the next few hours. Should the pattern be broken, the map should be redrawn to fit the actual. Cmaps and times shown are guidelines only. Cycles vary in wavelength and amplitude. Directional changes within an hour of the expected turn and a few points of the cmap should be respected. The indicators rule. Times and prices are the projected cycle highs and lows with cmaps. 5-8 Day Cycle______ 2-3 Day Cycle_______ 5 Hr-1 Day Cycle
Tuesday's
Markets 2/11/03 Wary Eye Back in Socket Doc has had a nervous eye on the approaching 6-7 week cycle low, but after today's action he put it back in its socket. The up phase due to begin in the next 5 days isn't going to amount to a hill of you know what. The cascading 10-13 week cycle is in control, and the 6-7 week cycle up phase will barely be noticeable, other than a day or two of short side profit taking here and there. A little pop here, a little pop there, and done. In fact the worst case scenario is beginning to look more and more likely, in spite of the fact that cmaps aren't pointing there yet. In that scenario the up phase will be as weak or weaker than the one in June and July of last year, when there were no more than a couple of scattered up spikes in the middle of a two month plunge. This move is starting to look a lot like that one. Even worse perhaps. The cycle map below is a picture of what this worst case scenario might look like. At the low, the index is likely to plunge through the bottom of the channel. But, as always, we'll have to watch the indicators day to day, and let them tell us what to expect.
Doc's Pooper Scooper. Be a Johnny Applestool! Help spread the Stool! Feel free to repost snippets from the Anals on message boards around the web. Just give a link back! Many tanks - Doc The Feed added $5.25 billion in overnight repos against expirations of $4.75 billion for a net addition of $500 million. This overnight repo is the only expiration scheduled for Wednesday. Total Feed remains in a steep short term downtrend in spite of Al's three day mini-jam. Now that Jim Bunning has tossed another perfect game while falling off the mound by calling Al a boob, we can only wonder how Al will react. Just like the '64 Mets perhaps. What would Choo Choo do? What would Casey say? Come to think of it, Al's beginning to sound a lot like Casey these days. All you can do is stand there, scratch your head and wonder what the hell he just said. It's that convoluted. Be that as it may, he still has room to add reserves to stay on his trend, and the bond market was kind to him yesterday, so we'll probably see steady feeding in the days ahead. Two
trends are evident on the Feed Index, which is the total Fed holdings of
loans and securities. One is the 10% growth trend beginning in May of
2001. The blue channel going back to last December suggests a 5% growth rate. Look at the 4 week moving
average (brown line) and compare it with the slope of the two larger
channels for an indication for whether the slope of short term growth is
slower or faster than the 2 longer term trends. Will he Feed enough to reverse the Feedometer and provide some minimal support for stock prices? You might guess that if the SPX falls back below the trendline and begins to accelerate down he'll whip out his wallet for a day or two. But without that he'll probably just keep the status quo. And even if he did pump, just like last summer, at this stage of the cycle it will do no good. The bottom line is that there's nothing here to move the market any way but lower. They can Feed all they want. The Gang of 22 has no interest in being long this market. The
Feedometer theoretically measures excess Feed available for bond or stock
market jamming. Al selects a trend level he feels is needed to reflatulate
the economy. The Feedometer measures the difference between the apparent
trend target, and actual day to day Feeding (Fastow Feedometer), as well
as a four week moving average (Slowmo Feedometer). A break above the
orange trendline might indicate a more aggressive jamming policy. 10 Year Bond yields were down slightly.
Multiple cycle juxtaposition is keeping them in an extremely tight range. There's
no sign that will change any time soon. Dow Inflatables- The
6-7 week cycle cmap remains at 7650. The 13 day cmap dropped to 7700. The
bottom is due in the 6-7 week cycle within a week. It probably won't
matter. If the Dow drops
out of this consolidation area below 7750 before the upturn, the up phase will be
solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short, after which the Jokes will head for
7000. All of Doc's daily cycle charts
are powered by METASTOCK Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) and Sentiment Cycle Chart Short Term Cycles The short cycle oscillator is still tacking higher in spite of the market's drift lower. This tells us that the 4 week cycle is in an up phase. The usually dominant 6-7 week cycle is juxtaposed, with less than 6 days remaining in the down phase, and a cmap of 800. The bottom window is open for that cycle but the downturn due in the 4 week cycle seems likely to cancel it out, allowing the 10-13 week cycle down phase to govern. The 6-7 week cycle traders may only do the ground hog thing. Look around, see their shadow, and crawl back in their holes. The 6-7 week cycle oscillator superimposed on the chart below upticked again. Normally, in a longer term downtrend, the first signal on that indicator results in a brief pop, but then price diverges south as the indicator continues to rise. The 17 day rate of change (chart below) remains in a downtrend. Given the current conditions, the coming up phase in the 6-7 week cycle isn't going anywhere. When the short cycle oscillator rolls over, the downtrend is likely to accelerate. 10-13 Week Cycle Roughly 5 to 8 weeks should remain in the 10-13 week cycle down phase. The cycle oscillators continue to move slowly lower. The one in the top chart is in the bottom zone, but it can bounce around down there for weeks while the market trends. The flat movement below the zero line in the 29 day ROC also indicates mild trending which can go on for weeks. There will be no substantial rally until all of these indicators turn up in concert. The preliminary cmap for this cycle, which has been oscillating between 770 and 820, dropped back down to 770. It looks likely that the market will get to the lower end of the range, and if it closes below 825 in the short run, the cmap is likely to drop again. Sentiment Amazingly VIX dropped. (up on the inverted scale chart). In the market at least, fear actually diminished a bit. In the context of the current cycle, the reading is neutral. The next significant intermediate cycle low should reach at least 50-60.
The 15 day rate of change is a proxy for the
4-7 week cycle. The 29 day rate of change is a proxy for the 10-13 week
cycle. The dark blue overlaid line is the 10-13 week cycle
oscillator, while the red line is the 6-7 week cycle oscillator. The VIX
is a measure of implied options volatility reflecting relative fear or
complacency. It is plotted below on an inverse scale to better show the
relationship to the price chart. The "Stool Bands" may reflect
either 6 month or 10-12 month cycles. The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 2/11/03
PTT - Periods Till Turn Suctor Watch and Stoolwethers- Updated each morning between 8 AM and 9:00 AM NY time. Nasgap Charts The Nas is expected to behave more like the SPX with the continued de-weighting of tech. In the interest of publishing the Anals earlier in the evening Doc is presenting the charts and data without commentary, as it is largely redundant relative to the SPX commentary above. Cycle Chart Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 2/11/03
PTT
- Periods Till Turn Suctor Watch and Stoolwethers- Updated each morning between 8 AM and 9:00 AM NY time. Long Bong Hit - See top of page. Golden Stool 2/10/03 PM Gold dipped again, but it's near a bottom. The 4 week cycle cmap is 357 on a closing basis. The Jimmy Jones Cramer Memorial Selloff is near an end. Since Cramer turned bullish the gold market got decapitated. Remember, this is the guy who screams, there's always a bull market somewhere and we're gonna find it for you every day on the radio. Well, he missed this one for nearly three years. But he's really good at catching the last phase of a move, then overstaying. So after this correction we have one more leg up. A 4 month cycle low is due any day now and then we get one more big ride this year. Gold will see 400 by mid year.
Charts as of 2/10/03 Close HUI reversed most of Monday's clubbing. The 4 month (or 13 week, take your pick) cycle has been in a sideways down phase for 6 weeks. The bottom can come at any time is due at any time. Cmaps are generally 133-134, although the 4 week cycle cmap is down around 127. Doc doubts it will get there. HUI Cycle Conditions as of 2/11/03
Uncle Buck's Illness Uncle Buck was ramped Monday night, and rallied into the day session in NY until Al opened his mouth. That was all she wrote. The high for the day was just shy of the cmap of 101on the shorter cycles. Longer term cmaps have risen to mid 90's by mid year, but may be as low as 80 looking toward 2004. Chart as of 2/11/03 close Uncle B and SPX (gray line on chart)
usually move together because Uncle Buck's index measures the flow of
capital into and out of US paper assets. The relative magnitude of the
moves varies and wide divergences are followed by convergence.
Central banks intervening to buy dollars are not
going to help stock prices, and cannot drive sustainable advances in the
dollar. Get StoolieSignal Special offer here only! Suctor Watch and Stoolwethers- Now posted on separate page. Updated each morning between 8 AM and 9:00 AM NY time. See you in Intraday Stool. Dr. Stepan N. Stool Share your thoughts on the Stool Pigeons Wire.
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Explanation of Intraday Commentary-Build charts at http://www.livecharts.com. For custom time bars insert a comma after symbol and number of minutes, e.g. compx,90. This will give you a bar chart of the Nas with 90 minutes per bar. The one day cycle is usually most clear with 8 minute bars and 26/18 stochastics. It varies from day to day. Sometimes 6 minutes works best. Experiment to find the best fit for your trading style, and the market's dominant frequency at the time. The goal here is primarily to monitor the condition of the 8 and 13 day cycles. I typically use 90 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics for the 13 day cycle proxy on the indices during regular trading hours. Other cycles use 26/18 stochastics with the following: 8 days- 60 minute bars On the 24 hour futures charts, use a time per bar approximately 3 to 4 times the above number of minutes, to represent the cycles listed above. About centered moving average projections. ABBREVIATIONS: cma: centered moving average |
. (Sorry
about the bull.) 
![[Most Recent HUI from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_hui_en_2.gif)
![[Most Recent XAU from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_sp500_en_2.gif)
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_2.gif)
