|
10 Minute Bar Charts 7/24/02 Dow Jokes Inflatables
Archives 12/30/01, 1/1/02, 1/2/02, 1/3/02, 1/4/02, 1/7/02, 1/8/02, 1/09/02, 1/10/02, 1/11/02, 1/14/02, 1/15/02, 1/16/02, 1/17/02, 1/18/02, 1/22/02, 1/23/02, 1/24/02, 1/25/02, 1/28/02, 1/29/02, 1/30/02, 1/31/02, 2/1/02, 2/4/02, 2/5/02, 2/06/02, 2/7/02, 2/9/02, 2/11/02, 2/12/02, 2/13/02, 2/14/02, 2/16/02, 2/19/02, 2/20/02, 2/21/02, 2/23/02, 2/25/02, 2/26/02, 2/27/02, 2/28/02, 3/1/02, 3/04/02, 3/05/02, 3/06/02, 3/7/02, 3/10/02,3/11/02, 3/12/02, 3/13/02, 3/14/02, 3/15/02, 3/18/02, 3/19/02, 3/20/02, 3/21/02, 3/22/02, 3/25/02, 3/26/02, 3/28/02, 3/30/02 4/1/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, 4/4/02, 4/6/02, 4/8/02, 4/9/02, 4/10/02, 4/11/02, 4/13/02, 4/15/02, 4/16/02, 4/17/02, 4/18/02, 4/20/02, 4/22/02, 4/23/02,4/24/02,4/25/02, 4/26/02, 4/27/02, 4/29/02, 4/30/02 5/01/02, 5/2/02, 5/4/02, 5/6/02, 5/07/02, 5/8/02, 5/09/02, 5/10/02, 5/13/02, 5/14/02, 5/15/02, 5/16/02, 5/17/02, 5/20/02, 5/21/02, 5/22/02, 5/23/02, 5/24/02, 5/28/02, 5/29/02, 5/30/02 6/01/02, 6/3/02, 6/4/02, 6/5/02, 6/6/02, 6/7/02, 6/10/02, 6/11/02, 6/12/02, 6/13/02, 6/14/02, 6/17/02, 6/18/02, 6/19/02, 6/20/02, 6/22/02, 6/24/02, 6/25/02, 6/26/02, 6/27/02, 6/30/02 7/1/02, 7/4/02, 7/5/02, 7/11/02, 7/14/02, 7/15/02, 7/16/02, 7/17/02, 7/18/02, 7/19/02, 7/22/02, 7/23/02
|
The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished weeknights by
8:30PM Happy Acres, Florida Time The American Academy of Stock Proctology and Is your subscription up for renewal? If you want to renew, do nothing, unless your credit card has expired. Please be sure your credit card info is current. If your credit card has passed its expiration date and you have received a new card, you must enter the new expiration date in your Paypal account in order for your subscription to be processed. If you subscribed via Paypal, your subscription will be renewed for one year on the 90 day anniversary of your sign-up and your credit card will be charged. If you want to cancel, use the button at the bottom of the page. This applies only if you subscribed through Paypal. Mailed-in subscriptions are for 1 year. If you subscribed by prior contribution, I will send you a notice before your subscription expires. If you have any questions, see the subscription page and FAQ's. If you can't find the answer, email me. PM Update 7/25/02 3:20 PM Terms and methodology Using the 2 day cycle, the cmaps for this move are Nas 1205, SPX 815 and NDX 880. PM Update 7/25/02 1:00 PM Terms and methodology No surprises the first half of today. The market followed the cycle map surprisingly well after yesterday's debacle hitting or exceeding the AM downside cmaps. At this point it looks like the 3 day cycle is topping out, or has topped out, and the 5 hour and 1 day cycles are making a low. The 5 and 8 day cycles still may be in an up phase. The wave band is wide, but the upslope is weak, and a meltdown may be in progress, which would result in rollovers in the 5 and 8 day cycle ozzies. If that happens today, no doubt the market will take out the lows and resume the collapse. The lack of Feed results in an enormous drain of liquidity. The market may start to fall apart after 2:30. Doc tanks stoolie mjkst27, aka agent 27, for the Feed reminder. Although the 5 hour lows appear to be forming, they are not complete, and the 12:30 low may be broken by 5 or 10 points before the up phase takes hold. It's too early to forecast the size of the up phase. With the weakened longer waves, it should be relatively mild. If it is, and shows signs of faltering in the last hour and half, Doc thinks it would be shortable. Doc does not make trading recommendations. This update reports intraday time cycle estimates and centered moving average projections based on the Hurst cycle analysis method. Doc assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or inaccuracy of these estimates and projections. The market may or may not meet these projections. New stoolies should thoroughly familiarize themselves with the methodology before trading based on this method. There is no free lunch. Those who do not have the time or inclination to develop a trading strategy based on testing and research should not trade. Trade at your own risk. On the other hand, if you made any extra this week on account of The Stool, send it in!
AM Update 7/25/02 9:15 AM Terms and methodology After examining dozens of individual stock and sector charts, Doc concluded that the downside potential has been exhausted for this six month cycle. A near term test of the lows can not be ruled out, but neither can it be ruled in. Most stocks should establish a trading range that lasts weeks or months. That would surprise no one, but the conclusions drawn from that action will vary widely. Bulls will say it's base building for the new bull market. We know otherwise. Fucutures are starting to selloff at 9AM NY time. The short squeeze overshot the cmaps yesterday. The 5 hour and 1 day cycles should head down until 11 AM with a second low around 1 PM. Expect a lot of chop, and be mindful that the 5 and 8 day cycles are up, until proven otherwise. Should be a good sized upward reaction in the PM which may or may not be an entry for scalping a short. The upside cmaps for the 5 day cycle remain a little higher than yesterday's highs. If the AM selloff is strong enough, those projections would be negated. We'll take a second look at in then. I've posted two sets of downside cmaps. If the first is hit quickly, I'll hold out for the second. Doc does not make trading recommendations. This update reports intraday time cycle estimates and centered moving average projections based on the Hurst cycle analysis method. Doc assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or inaccuracy of these estimates and projections. The market may or may not meet these projections. New stoolies should thoroughly familiarize themselves with the methodology before trading based on this method. There is no free lunch. Those who do not have the time or inclination to develop a trading strategy based on testing and research should not trade. Trade at your own risk. On the other hand, if you made any extra this week on account of The Stool, send it in!
Stock Proctologist Examines Bottom (7/24/02) Anytime the Dow does a 600 point reversal, it's a bottom, that's for sure, but which cycle is it? 13 day cycle? Sure. Four week and 6-7 week cycles, certainly. The all important 10-13 week cycle? Pretty sure, although, we need to see the degree of staying power tomorrow, to be more certain. What about the big 6 month cycle? That's the one you really don't want to be trading against. That's the one that can kill a bear who's a disbeliever. That's the one that causes most bears to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, and give back most of their hard earned gains. Where are we on that one? The answer is complicated. On the SPX, the cmaps have moved up, and prices have hit the revised targets. Certainly the time frame is right, but it's too early for confirmation from the 6 month cycle indicators, which typically lag the turns by a week or so. On the Nas, in spite of the gargantuan spike, the projections still show the potential for one more down wave to 1050-1100, but it's iffy. Finally is this "The Bottom," the four year cycle low? Once again, the time is approximately right, so the idea can't be written off, but so what? It's a useless concept anyway from the trader's perspective. The thing to keep in mind is that it's the 6 month cycles that can kill a bearish trader. As for the secular trend, there's no doubt that it is still down, but the trend channel is hundreds of points high on both the Nasgap and Sphincter's Index, and about 1800 points on the Dow, so crazy things can happen withion the confines of those downtrending channels, especially if the credit bubble is reinflated. That can't be ruled out. Seems in this day and age crisis is the catalyst for excess credit creation. So in the great tradition of all technical analysts, Doc says that this may or may not have been a bottom. Truth is, there isn't enough confirmation from the indicators to say what it is or isn't. And does it really matter? No. The idea is to read what the indicators are telling us. And right now they're saying, Duhhhh? When they're saying that, why gamble? As our friend, the great stoolie, blackbelt, said today, "Cash is a position." The Feed added a total of $6 billion in overnight repos. There were no rollovers. $3.5 billion in 3 day repos, and this $6 billion, expire tomorrow. Don't be alarmed if you see big numbers tomorrow. It's only a jam if it substantially exceeds $9.5 billion. After the market's explosion today, my guess is that Al will hold his fire and drain a little. The $6 billion dollar jam is not as big as it seems either. The Treasury refunding today added an additional $6 billion to the amount of Two Year Notes to be rolled over. We've seen before that the Feed tries to insure a successful auction by adding just enough Feed to cover the excess sucking of the T-Note sale. If the sale doesn't look like it's going well, The Gang has a little extra ready cash available to make sure that it does. Yesterday, Doc pointed out that there would be "a big Feed tomorrow to replace the $6 billion that will be sucked out of the system by the sale," and Whoop, there it is! All in all, this doesn't look like what jammed the market today. It was probably a combination of the cash built up over the last few weeks burning a hole in the portfolio sphincters' pockets, and a panic by all the newbie shorts, who, as someone said on the Stool Pigeons Wire today, got their first real taste of a short squeeze. Did they ever! They won't be shorting again any time soon, is Doc's guess. The total Feed is back to trend.
It's when they overshoot the center line that the market tends to take off.
Keep an eye on that. Watch what they do tomorrow morning, keeping in mind
the $9.5 billion coming off. 2:30 is zero hour. That's when the money
starts moving back to the Fed, or vice versa. If the slow Feedometer moves up
from here, after nearly 3 months of steady Feeding, the market may begin to
respond, just as it did after last fall. Right now we're in
limbo, with the indicator almost directinless. IT'S ALIVE! The mortgage bubble
has been reflatulated Mortgage applications were up big in the week
ended July 12. This latest bulge really started to take off in June. As
these applications begin to be funded, probably starting now, the money
will start flowing into the system. Unlike the Feed, this does not
directly flow to the stock and bond markets, but in the chain reaction financial system
we operate in, some of it will find its way there. Some folks, flush with
their cash-out refi money, and with the sight of corporate execs being led
off in handcuffs, are going to decide to gamble. Here come the refi's again. Not as
much as late last year yet, but big enough to temporarily liquefy the system
again. Al's actually pretty good with this Houdini thing. It's no help at
all in the long run. Instead, it just prolongs the agony, and raises
false hopes. We get these furious rallies, followed by even more massive
collapses. When will the Street and everybody else catch on?
Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) and Sentiment The Sphincters exploded, after dumping more than 20 right after the open. They rocketed about 70 points from the low to close at 844. Downside cmaps moved up to 775-800. Those numbers have been met. Doc isn't one to bet on a retest. We'll get some kind of pullback before the bottoming phase is complete, and the bottoming phase might last anywhere from a few days to 3 or 4 weeks, but if you are praying for a complete retest in the near future, may the force be with you. Same goes if you are thinking of going long here (godferbid). This is a day traders market. Until there's clarity, or unless you get an astoundingly good entry and can afford to hold through the next intraday wave, it's not time to set up swing cycle positions. The 17 day rate of change, which represents the 6-7 week cycle, upticked, but not enough for a confirming signal. The superimposed 6-7 week cycle oscillator (red) dropped to levels indicating a cycle low. These indicators suggest that those of you who need a pullback should get your prayers at least partially answered. The 29 day rate of change also upticked, but not enough for a buy signal. It normally stabilizes and turns up ahead of price when the 10-13 week cycle turns. The 10-13 week cycle oscillator (navy) began to trough. Today was just the start of the process. The market usually does some backing and filling during the trough phase. Then it takes off to the upside when the indicators get in gear. The VIX fell to 45.29, after being above 50 yesterday, and hitting 56.74 today. At a major low, extreme fear readings normally persist for several days. A buy signal is generated when the index drops below the blue band and then reverses. Look back at the September low, when VIX remained outside the channel for 5 days before reversing. So this doesn't look "good" in terms of the 6 month cycle low, but perhaps it's "good enough" for a 10-13 week cycle low. Just a reminder that there is no absolute limit, and historical levels do not apply. The chart should be read just as you would a stock price chart. The trend is your friend, and this one isn't broken yet. So, let's fold our arms for another day and see whether this indicator confirms the turn or not.. The blue channel lines are the extension of a linear
regression channel from the September 2000 and March 2002 highs. The 6 month cycle oscillator and the trading stoolicator are still trending down. The short cycle oscillator turned right on schedule. Unfortunately that only tells us that the short cycle phase is up, but not what the ultimate slope of the up phase will be. The oscillator is relative to the trend slope, and unless the 6 month cycle is making a "V" bottom, which is improbable, the slope of the up phase is likely to be no more than flat. The index has only recovered to the top of the shortest downtrending wave bands. Now we need to see if those trendlines can be broken. The 10-13 week cycle oscillator didn't
budge from its downtrend, and while it is in a bottom zone, it would need to turn up sharply to
signal anything other than a sideways consolidation. For now, until the
market can prove that it can hold these gains, all we can say for sure is that
it's a spike. Doc is not trying to be a hero here and emphatically call,
or not call, a bottom. The important thing is to be as certain as possible
as to the direction of the cycle you are trading. At this point we can't
be sure. There are so many reflux levels
on the way up, we won't recount them. Three are immediately overhead in
the 850-860 area. The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 7/24/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasgap Charts The Nas staged an absurd 96 point gain off the intraday low below 1200 to close at 1290. downside cmaps moved up to 1200 on key trading cycles, so this looks like a bottom on those, with the possibility of a retest within a couple of weeks. The initial upside cmap on the 13 day cycle is 1300-1325, which if correct doesn't leave much upside. The 5-6 month cycle cmap still projects a possible shot at 1050, but that will only happen if Wednesday's gains melt away in a few days. The
10-13 week cycle oscillator is now in neutral, but in a potentially
bullish configuration. If it turns up tomorrow, the rally is for real. If
it turns down, there's going to be a real mess on Wall Street. The short cycle oscillator
bottomed, with the same comments applying as for the SPX. Can you
read this chart. Heh, heh. Neither can Doc. However, there are a few of
you who follow fiber nacho regurgitation levels. Today's recovery stooped
at the first cluster. Next is 1310, the 50% retracement area of the most
recent 1 week plunge. Next is a dense cluster from 1325 to 1345. Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 7/24/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn AM Edition Features (Previous) These features are in morning edition, published around 9 AM ET US, or the Saturday Weak End Edition, published, uh, let's see, Saturday!. Recovery? What Recovery? The Industrial Metals Index
says the manufacturing "recovery" is falling apart. Looks like bonds may have had a reversal day yesterday, but there's no signal from the oscillators yet. Watch for yields to rise back to within the major channel. If that happens, the 6 month cycle low in yields is in.
Doc was
wrong about the dirty SOX yesterday. The swup is not yet over. Aerospace- A
break through the long term channel, and recovery, could be a good intermediate
buy signal. Have to wait for the ozzies to confirm. It could also be a
fakeout. Biodrech is
in a swup. If this is the beginning of the market's intermediate up phase,
we'll see trading ranges like this develop in suctor after suctor. The
bulls will, of course, recognize it as base building for the new bull
market. Actually, it will be the opposite, consolidation for the next
plunge. Bonkers
broke the bottom of the major channel and then recovered. That's usually a
bottom signal, but again, there's no confirmation from the oscillators
yet, so we fold our arms and wait. Con sumer-
Ditto from comments on bank stocks. Ditto for
Retail Drugs are
also close to confirming a turn, but the major downtrend downslope is such
that the upside potential is severely limited. Real Estate
Bubble- Is it alive? Builders say maybe. Again, the next few days are
critical. A true bear would say that even if a rally ensues, it will mark
the final distribution phase, with lower highs. That's what Doc would say. Internuts
are swuppin' and could head back for upper edge of short term trend
channel. (dark green). Software
stocks are also in position to come off the bottom of the channel for a
few weeks or months. But again, there's no confirmation from the
indicators as yet. Networkers
have been in a swup for 3 weeks. Hasn't gotten them too far. We'll watch
for a second upturn. Could have potential for a vicious short squeeze. Ditto for
Telecoms. The Dow
Transports didn't recover much, and the downtrend is still intact. Dover
Sole bounce in the HMO's hasn't disturbed the trend yet.. AMAT is typical
of a supermodel in a weak swup. There's potential for a short squeeze
carrying price back to the top of the 10-13 week channel. (dark green) The AhOL may
go swuppin before the bankruptcy death dive. Doc hates
big banks. Keep that prejudice in mind when he tells you that he doesn't
think yesterday's bounce means anything.
Wally's
bounce off the bottom of the major channel does not impress. Fannie
should return to the scene of the crime at 75 before settling into its
major downtrend.. Seems like
Mr. Bill put in a 10-13 week cycle low and will swup for a few weeks. BUT,
again, we still need to see the indicators confirm. Intel's been
swuppin' for a month already. Ditto for
IBM. GM's trend
is undisturbed, but a swup is due. The other
General, Custer, bounced off the bottom of its major trend channel. Time
to swup for awhile. Henceforth and forevermore, if you would like to request a "stock o'der", please post your request in Dear Dr. Stool. If you have not already registered for the message board, please do so. The only required info is user name and password which you choose yourself, and your email address, which you can keep private by selecting the keep private option. Doc looks forward to featuring your ideas. We've had some good ones! Uncle Buck's Illness Doc's data vendor is behind the curve and didn't update Buck's status yesterday. This chart is from Tuesday. The index is back down to 105.37 this morning, back within the channel. The stock market rally was led by the dollar rally the day before. You don't suppose that's a coincidence, do you? The PPT and Feed at work. Expect Buck to be range
bound for awhile. Golden Stool Cousin HUI
recovered a bit yesterday. If this is still a bull, this is the place for
the gold stocks to make a stand. Any lower, and the long term cycle up
phase begins to be violated. the indicators are certainly in place to make
a bottom. The next few days are critical. See you in Intraday Stool. Dr. Stepan N. Stool Let me know what you think on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Renewals Welcome, and thank you for subscribing to the Anals of Stock Proctology. Your trial subscription will run for 90 days. At the end of that period your subscription will renew automatically, unless you cancel. If you wish to cancel your subscription use the button below. If you want to renew your subscription do nothing. Your subscription will renew and your credit card or Paypal bank account will be charged. Again, thanks for subscribing!
Explanation of Intraday Commentary-Build charts at http://www.livecharts.com. For custom time bars insert a comma after symbol and number of minutes, e.g. compx,90. This will give you a bar chart of the Nas with 90 minutes per bar. The one day cycle is usually most clear with 8 minute bars and 26/18 stochastics. It varies from day to day. Sometimes 6 minutes works best. Experiment to find the best fit for your trading style, and the market's dominant frequency at the time. The goal here is primarily to monitor the condition of the 8 and 13 day cycles. I typically use 90 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics for the 13 day cycle proxy on the indices during regular trading hours. Other cycles use 26/18 stochastics with the following: 8 days- 60 minute bars On the 24 hour futures charts, use a time per bar approximately 3 to 4 times the above number of minutes, to represent the cycles listed above. ABBREVIATIONS: cma: centered moving average |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
![[Most Recent XAU from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_nasdaq_en_2.gif)
![[Most Recent XAU from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_sp500_en_2.gif)
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_2.gif)
The
Dow rose 489. Now that is some bear market rally ladies and germs. The
question in everyone's mind is, "Is that all it is?" 
. (Sorry about the bull.)
You've seen the software advertised on TV. 
