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Archives 12/30/01, 1/1/02, 1/2/02, 1/3/02, 1/4/02, 1/7/02, 1/8/02, 1/09/02, 1/10/02, 1/11/02, 1/14/02, 1/15/02, 1/16/02, 1/17/02, 1/18/02, 1/22/02, 1/23/02, 1/24/02, 1/25/02, 1/28/02, 1/29/02, 1/30/02, 1/31/02, 2/1/02, 2/4/02, 2/5/02, 2/06/02, 2/7/02, 2/9/02, 2/11/02, 2/12/02, 2/13/02, 2/14/02, 2/16/02, 2/19/02, 2/20/02, 2/21/02, 2/23/02, 2/25/02, 2/26/02, 2/27/02, 2/28/02, 3/1/02, 3/04/02, 3/05/02, 3/06/02, 3/7/02, 3/10/02,3/11/02, 3/12/02, 3/13/02, 3/14/02, 3/15/02, 3/18/02, 3/19/02, 3/20/02, 3/21/02, 3/22/02, 3/25/02, 3/26/02, 3/28/02, 3/30/02 4/1/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, 4/4/02, 4/6/02, 4/8/02, 4/9/02, 4/10/02, 4/11/02, 4/13/02, 4/15/02, 4/16/02, 4/17/02, 4/18/02, 4/20/02, 4/22/02, 4/23/02,4/24/02,4/25/02, 4/26/02, 4/27/02, 4/29/02, 4/30/02 5/01/02, 5/2/02, 5/4/02, 5/6/02, 5/07/02, 5/8/02, 5/09/02, 5/10/02, 5/13/02, 5/14/02, 5/15/02, 5/16/02, 5/17/02, 5/20/02, 5/21/02, 5/22/02, 5/23/02, 5/24/02, 5/28/02, 5/29/02, 5/30/02 6/01/02, 6/3/02, 6/4/02, 6/5/02, 6/6/02, 6/7/02, 6/10/02, 6/11/02, 6/12/02, 6/13/02, 6/14/02, 6/17/02, 6/18/02, 6/19/02, 6/20/02, 6/22/02, 6/24/02, 6/25/02, 6/26/02, 6/27/02, 6/30/02 7/1/02, 7/4/02, 7/5/02, 7/11/02, 7/14/02, 7/15/02, 7/16/02, 7/17/02, 7/18/02, 7/19/02, 7/22/02, 7/23/02, 7/24/02, 7/25/02, 7/27/02, 7/29/02, 7/30/02 8/1/02, 8/3/02, 8/5/02, 8/6/02, 8/7/02, 8/8/02, 8/10/02, 8/12/02, 8/13/02, 8/14/02, 8/15/02, 8/16/02, 8/19/02, 8/20/02, 8/21/02, 8/22/02, 8/23/02, 8/26/02, 8/27/02, 8/28/02, 8/29/02, 8/30/02
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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished weeknights by
8:30PM Happy Acres, Florida Time The American Academy of Stock Proctology and Is your subscription up for renewal? If you want to renew, do nothing, unless your credit card has expired. Please be sure your credit card info is current. If your credit card has expired, you must enter the new expiration date in your Paypal account in order for your subscription to be processed. If you subscribed via Paypal, your subscription will be renewed for one year on the 90 day anniversary of your sign-up and your credit card will be charged. If you want to cancel, use the button at the bottom of the page. This applies only if you subscribed through Paypal. Mailed-in subscriptions are for 1 year. If you subscribed by prior contribution, I will send you a notice before your subscription expires. If you have any questions, see the subscription page and FAQ's. If you can't find the answer, email me. Update 9/4/02 2:40 PM Terms and methodology Upside cmaps on this move (5 hour cycle) are SPX 889 and Nas 1283. The high appears to be due around 3 PM. Update 9/4/02 2:20 PM Terms and methodology The 5 day cycle oscillators have come out of a trough, but it's not clear whether more than a swup will result. The downside cmaps are negated for now. The veg-o-matic has claimed Doc today. Update 9/4/02 12:45 PM Terms and methodology The averages have pulled back to form a double bottom. Where are the bottom pickers. Have they learned it's not nice to pick bottoms? Lots of flop and chop today, as the veg-o-matic market is running full bore. Best guess is that both the 5 hour and 1 day cycles will head lower for the bulk of the PM, with lows at 2:30, and again at the bell. However, it does not look like a big movement coming down. The downside cmaps are little changed from this morning's posting, even though they crossed Doc up, on the open. Doc does not make trading recommendations. This update reports intraday time cycle estimates and centered moving average projections based on the Hurst cycle analysis method. Doc assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or inaccuracy of these estimates and projections. The market may or may not meet these projections. New stoolies should thoroughly familiarize themselves with the methodology before trading based on this method. There is no free lunch. Those who do not have the time or inclination to develop a trading strategy based on testing and research should not trade. Trade at your own risk.
Update 9/4/02 10:20 AM Terms and methodology Straight up off the opening bell, and the pullback was minimal. All cycles up to 3 days on buy signals. It now looks like a 5 hour cycle high is due before Noon with 1 day cycle high still looking like 1:30. The 5 and 8 day cycle ozzies have not turned up yet. Upside cmaps of 1285 already hit on Nas. Update 9/4/02 9:00 AM Terms and methodology The stogies on the all sessions fucutures chart indicate a 1 day cycle top following a gradual rise all night, as the NY open approaches. Combined with yesterday's trading indicating a low is due around 10:30, the indication is for a weak first hour. The up phase should top out around noon-1:30, unless the AM is a washout which bottoms the 5-8 day cycle. Doc does not make trading recommendations. This update reports intraday time cycle estimates and centered moving average projections based on the Hurst cycle analysis method. Doc assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or inaccuracy of these estimates and projections. The market may or may not meet these projections. New stoolies should thoroughly familiarize themselves with the methodology before trading based on this method. There is no free lunch. Those who do not have the time or inclination to develop a trading strategy based on testing and research should not trade. Trade at your own risk.
The Beat(ing) Goes On (9/3/02) Doc had the rare good fortune of hearing a sound bite from a CNN radio interview with Joe Fattipiglia after the close on Tuesday. Truly inspirational, stirring and awe inspiring. Joe said late today that the market was great, and getting ready to launch so that all of the year's losses would be recovered by year end. The question is who is more psychotic, Buttipluglia, or the media outlets who continue to interview him. The media's irresponsibility is largely to blame for the horrendous losses being faced by so many today. The media actively conspired with the guilty to promote the greatest criminal conspiracy in history. Yet they go blithely on their way, as if they've done nothing wrong. They have no shame. They are owned lock, stock, and barrel, by the very crooks they report on every day, either through direct ownership, or advertising revenue. And the lies just keep on coming. Meanwhile, the ISM data was unch from July and there was weak news on the employment front. All that refi money coming down the pipeline isn't doing much for the manna factoring sector, mostly because most US shoppers shop at ChinaMart, and ChinaMart gets most of its merchandise from..., well..., China. Which doesn't do a helluva lot to help US manna factor. That anyone would have been surprised enough by that data to send the Jokes down 350 points shows that they aren't paying attention. OK, so Doc was surprised. And he does expect flurries of economic activity as a result of the mortgage money bulge which should now be hitting the street. Perhaps the non-manufacturing sector will do better. But who cares. The news is the excuse for which the media exist, not the reason the market does what it does. Everybody now knows that the emperor has no clothes, no matter how many times a day the emperors advisers tell us how well dressed he is. Nobody listens to the boys who cry bull anymore. They have become, simply, irrelevant. The Feed added $11 billion in overnight repos. $5 billion in 4 day repos expired, for a net gain of $6 billion. The $11 billion will mature tomorrow, while $6 billion in 7 day repos will expire on Thursday. Houston we have liftoff, liftoff
of the Feed Shuttle Greenspewman. Al and friends saw the fucutures
meltdown, and the flat ISM and panicked. So, what else is noooo? The
problem now is the big rollovers in the next two days. Until we see whether
the Fed rolls all the paper, we don't know if this is just a one day wonder,
or a return to massive Feeding in the hopes of triggering a burst of
inflation to stave off implosion of the bubble. The Feedometer
rose and the slow Feedometer also upticked, but it's not clear whether
this is a trend change or just a blip. Excess Feeding aimed to jam the
markets has not had the desired effect since May. Sooner or later, you'd
think Al would get the message and stop the presses. For now, the bond
market is the beneficiary of the largesse.
All of Doc's
cycle charts
are powered by METASTOCK Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) and Sentiment The VIX exploded to 43.86. This huge move pulled the Stool Band lower on the inverted scale chart, apparently confirming that the near 30 reading in late August was the 10-13 week cycle high. Once again, a price low will not be confirmed until the lower blue band is broken and the index reverses. The 17 day rate of change
plunged into negative territory. The red
line on the chart is the superimposed 6-7 week cycle oscillator. It's
still heading down with what should be the 2 to 7 trading days left in
this cycle. The
10-13 week cycle oscillator (dark blue) rolled over. It should be at least
4 to 5 weeks before a low in this cycle. However, an upturn in the 6-7
week cycle within 7 days will trigger a reaction rally. It will be another
fake and a monumental short selling opportunity.
The 6 month cycle oscillator is still headed up, in a barely sideways up phase. The trading stoolicator is topping out. The 10-13 week
cycle oscillator is also topping out, but, amazingly, has not yet
generated a sell signal. The short cycle oscillator is on the trampoline.
A bounce could begin at any time, but it could correct upward without a
substantial price rise. Mixed cyclicality should still lead to a rangebound market for
weeks. True, it's a big range, and the cmaps suggest we haven't seen its
lows yet. Very short term downside cmaps are 840-70, with preliminary projections
of 760, a month or so from now. At which point we'll get yet another rally
that fools the majority.
Fiber Nacho Barf- Support levels The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 9/3/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasgap Charts The 17 day rate of change, proxy for the 6-7 week cycle broke down. The 4 week cycle is due for a low within 3 days. Short cycle targets are in the 1235-1265 range. The 6
month cycle up phase definitely is barely a weak swup. There are still no
sell signals on the 29 day rate of change or the 10-13 week cycle
oscillator. The short cycle ozzie says at least a weak bounce is due. A rollover in the 10-13 week cycle could be the precursor to an early
failure in the 6 month cycle which would be followed by a steady drop to
either 1100 in 4 to 6 weeks, and/or 722 in the next 4-5 months. That
should be the 4 year cycle low. So for arguments sake, let's say this 4
year cycle bear will end on February 7, 2003, at 722 on the Nas.
Fiber Nacho Dump Levels- Support Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 9/3/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn AM Edition Features (Previous) These features are in morning edition, published around 9 AM ET US, or the Saturday Weak End Edition, published, uh, let's see, Saturday! Golden Stool The 13 day,
6-7 week, and intermediate cycle cmaps remained at 132-33. The stoolicator
and short cycle oscillator say a pullback or consolidation is near. The 10 Year
Bond Yield chart now sports the never before seen Double Hanging Chad
formation. The presence of multiple hanging chad places the outcome in
doubt, in spite of the fact that earlier it looked like the bottom is in.
This one will have to be decided in the bond supreme court. Uncle Buck's Illness
Following last month's Double Big Giant Whopsaw, Uncle Buck, who is as
sick as ever, is headed for a bottom testing, and possibly the dreaded
bottom dropping. Biodrech- All signs point
down except short cycle ozzie which says bounce soon. Bonks got bonked while
10-13 week cycle still topping out. Consumer- 10-13 week cycle
sell signal, but bounce within a day or two. Retail has similar pattern
a half step behind. Drugs- Another chart with a
Big Giant Whopsaw. Once all the suckers were in the dropped the lid and
flushed. And the 10-13 week cycle just turned down. Health Services- Doc hates
the HMO's and he's being well rewarded following last month's Big Giant
Whopsaw. Only the beginning. Moral of the story- never own a group the
customers hate. Bad politics. Bubble- Massive Hunchback
top almost complete in the homebuilders. Energy- The trend is still
down, and the 10-13 week cycle is just topping out. Trannies- In the AM, they
tried to construe the failure of the third largest US trucker as bullish.
That didn't last long. Small Crap- A prettier
downtrend you couldn't find. SOX- Bottom dropping at
hand. Soft Where- Another bottom
dropping coming down. Nutworkers- The beat(ing)
goes on. Internuts- Bottom dropping
ahead following new 10-13 week cycle top signal. Telecoms- Another great
shorting opportunity on the next bounce. Stoolwethers General Custer- 10-13 week
sell signal after Big Giant Whopsaw. And it's still early. Citicorpse- Bounce in a day
or two, before bottom dropping. JPM- One step behind C. Fannie- Lower highs and
lower lows equals what? AMAT- Bounce again, then
bottom dropping for the quintessential supermodel.. INTC- Leading the market
through thick and thin. Bounce due from level formerly known as support. Collapse
to follow. CSCO- Where's the bounce.
It won't amount to much following 10-13 week cycle sell signal. DELL- A little bounce
before retesting low. IBM- Ditto, except long
term trend in much worse shape. Mr. Bill- in the bounce
zone as top building progresses. AMZN- Good short entry as
top of right shoulder looks complete on 10-13 week cycle ozzie top. (With
a stop at 16+.) AhOL- Another short entry
with obvious stop. Market Maker Management-
They'll bounce the market from 117ish. Wally- Bounce due, to
complete 10-13 week cycle top. See you in Intraday Stool. Dr. Stepan N. Stool Share your thoughts on the Stool Pigeons Wire.
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Explanation of Intraday Commentary-Build charts at http://www.livecharts.com. For custom time bars insert a comma after symbol and number of minutes, e.g. compx,90. This will give you a bar chart of the Nas with 90 minutes per bar. The one day cycle is usually most clear with 8 minute bars and 26/18 stochastics. It varies from day to day. Sometimes 6 minutes works best. Experiment to find the best fit for your trading style, and the market's dominant frequency at the time. The goal here is primarily to monitor the condition of the 8 and 13 day cycles. I typically use 90 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics for the 13 day cycle proxy on the indices during regular trading hours. Other cycles use 26/18 stochastics with the following: 8 days- 60 minute bars On the 24 hour futures charts, use a time per bar approximately 3 to 4 times the above number of minutes, to represent the cycles listed above. ABBREVIATIONS: cma: centered moving average
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