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10/1/02, 10/2/02, 10/3/02, 10/4/02, 10/7/02, 10/8/02

The Anals of Stock Proctology

Published weeknights by 8:30PM Happy Acres, Florida Time
Weak End Edition Saturday Afternoon

 The American Academy of Stock Proctology and 
the American Society of Shortsellers
Dr. Stepan N. Stool, A.S.S. Chair

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Doc will be traveling until October 23, God willing. The Anals will be published in a scaled down format, whenever possible. Pre-market and Mid-day updates will be published irregularly. There will be no mid-day update Thursday or Friday. I will try to do pre-market updates both days. Publication notices will be posted on the message board during this period. Since we are nearing a short term turning point, I'll do my best to report to you regularly on how the charts look. 

Suctors and Stoolwethers will not be updated today. 

Road Warrior Update 10/11/02

He missed the tag! He missed the tag! He's out! No, he's safe! The argument must be raging. Unfortunately, Doc wasn't there to see the play. He is still reviewing it in the replay booth. 

But for what it's worth, here's a quickie on the Sphincters Index charts. No AM or intraday updates tomorrow. 

The upturn on the 29 day rate of change says the 10-13 week cycle is bottoming. Most of the time there is a retest or lower low within a week after the initial signal. Breaking the center line of the downtrend channel in the 12th week of the cycle is another sign. Finally the cycle oscillator turned up. Those signals are usually timely, but are also followed by a retest within a couple of days.  The cmaps are still down at 700-760, and they didn't quite get there. They got close, and could still get into that range if there's another dip within 2-3 days.

Sentiment and Momentum Indicators
The 17 day rate of change is a proxy for the 6-7 week cycle. the 29 day rate of change is a proxy for the 10-13 week cycle.  The dark blue overlaid line is the 10-13 week cycle oscillator, while the red line is the 6-7 week cycle oscillator. The VIX is a measure of implied options volatility reflecting relative fear or complacency. It is plotted below on an inverse scale to better show the relationship to the price chart. The "Stool Bands may reflect either 6 month or 10-12 month cycles.

The 10-13 week cycle oscillator on the chart below has not turned up, also suggesting there will be a retest and possible lower low. 

Does Doc expect a big rally to follow, you axe? 

Whaddyouse? Some kinda wiseguy? OK, a quick answer. With the 6 month cycle topping out probably not, but it's too early to say for sure. One thing seems likely. It  should be a difficult few weeks for shorts, and even tougher if your playing with putzes.  The market should at least go sideways, and a 10% rally  is also a reasonable supposition. 

But first, a retest of the retest. A retest he says! 

The red channel is the idealized 2 year cycle. Dark blue is the 10-12, or 6 month cycle. Teal is the 10-13 week cycle. Purple is the 4 or 6-7 week cycle. 

The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings.

SPX Cycle Conditions as of 10/10/02

PTT - Periods Till Turn
L-Low, H-High
SWD= Sideways Down Phase- Trading Range
SWU=Sideways Up
p: preliminary
Too Early: Too soon to project 
No Factor: Low amplitude is dominated by larger cycles

Golden Stool- Published daily by 7:30 AM NY time

No turn for HUI yet, but it's coming. The 13 day, and 10-13 week cycle cmaps are both at 106. As long as it doesn't break that, the long term uptrend is intact.

Suctor Watch and Stoolwethers- Now posted on separate page.  Updated each morning between 8 AM and 9:30 AM NY time. Suctors and Stoolwethers will not be updated Thursday (10/10/02) or Friday. 

See you in Intraday Stool. 

Dr. Stepan N. Stool
Chairman of the Department of Stock Proctology
A.S.S. Endowed Chair
American Society of Shortsellers Endowment
American Academy of Stock Proctology

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Explanation of Intraday Commentary-Build charts at http://www.livecharts.com.  For custom time bars insert a comma after symbol and number of minutes, e.g. compx,90. This will give you a bar chart of the Nas with 90 minutes per bar. The one day cycle is usually most clear with 8 minute bars and 26/18 stochastics. It varies from day to day. Sometimes 6 minutes works best. Experiment to find the best fit for your trading style, and the market's dominant frequency at the time.

The goal here is primarily to monitor the condition of the 8 and 13 day cycles. I typically use 90 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics for the 13 day cycle proxy on the indices during regular trading hours. Other cycles use 26/18 stochastics with the following:

8 days- 60 minute bars
5 days- 40 minute bars
3 days- 24 minute bars
2 days- 16 minute bars
1 day- 6, 7, or 8 minute bars

On the 24 hour futures charts, use a time per bar approximately 3 to 4 times the above number of minutes, to represent the cycles listed above.

ABBREVIATIONS:

cma: centered moving average
cmap: centered moving average projection
os or ozzie: oscillator
sto: stochastic
swup: sideways up phase
swdp: sideways down phase