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Archives 12/30/01, 1/1/02, 1/2/02, 1/3/02, 1/4/02, 1/7/02, 1/8/02, 1/09/02, 1/10/02, 1/11/02, 1/14/02, 1/15/02, 1/16/02, 1/17/02, 1/18/02, 1/22/02, 1/23/02, 1/24/02, 1/25/02, 1/28/02, 1/29/02, 1/30/02, 1/31/02, 2/1/02, 2/4/02, 2/5/02, 2/06/02, 2/7/02, 2/9/02, 2/11/02, 2/12/02, 2/13/02, 2/14/02, 2/16/02, 2/19/02, 2/20/02, 2/21/02, 2/23/02, 2/25/02, 2/26/02, 2/27/02, 2/28/02, 3/1/02, 3/04/02, 3/05/02, 3/06/02, 3/7/02, 3/10/02,3/11/02, 3/12/02, 3/13/02, 3/14/02, 3/15/02, 3/18/02, 3/19/02, 3/20/02, 3/21/02, 3/22/02, 3/25/02, 3/26/02, 3/28/02, 3/30/02 4/1/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, 4/4/02, 4/6/02, 4/8/02, 4/9/02, 4/10/02, 4/11/02, 4/13/02, 4/15/02, 4/16/02, 4/17/02, 4/18/02, 4/20/02, 4/22/02, 4/23/02,4/24/02,4/25/02, 4/26/02, 4/27/02, 4/29/02, 4/30/02 5/01/02, 5/2/02, 5/4/02, 5/6/02, 5/07/02, 5/8/02, 5/09/02, 5/10/02, 5/13/02, 5/14/02, 5/15/02, 5/16/02, 5/17/02, 5/20/02, 5/21/02, 5/22/02, 5/23/02, 5/24/02, 5/28/02, 5/29/02, 5/30/02 6/01/02, 6/3/02, 6/4/02, 6/5/02, 6/6/02, 6/7/02, 6/10/02, 6/11/02, 6/12/02, 6/13/02, 6/14/02, 6/17/02, 6/18/02, 6/19/02, 6/20/02, 6/22/02, 6/24/02, 6/25/02, 6/26/02, 6/27/02, 6/30/02 7/1/02, 7/4/02, 7/5/02, 7/11/02, 7/14/02, 7/15/02, 7/16/02, 7/17/02, 7/18/02, 7/19/02, 7/22/02, 7/23/02, 7/24/02, 7/25/02, 7/27/02, 7/29/02, 7/30/02 8/1/02, 8/3/02, 8/5/02, 8/6/02, 8/7/02, 8/8/02, 8/10/02, 8/12/02, 8/13/02, 8/14/02, 8/15/02, 8/16/02, 8/19/02, 8/20/02, 8/21/02, 8/22/02, 8/23/02, 8/26/02, 8/27/02, 8/28/02, 8/29/02, 8/30/02 9/3/02, 9/4/02, 9/5/02. 9/6/02
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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished weeknights by
8:30PM Happy Acres, Florida Time The American Academy of Stock Proctology and Is your subscription up for renewal? If you want to renew, do nothing, unless your credit card has expired. Please be sure your credit card info is current. If your credit card has expired, you must enter the new expiration date in your Paypal account in order for your subscription to be processed. If you subscribed via Paypal, your subscription will be renewed for one year on the 90 day anniversary of your sign-up and your credit card will be charged. If you want to cancel, use the button at the bottom of the page. This applies only if you subscribed through Paypal. Mailed-in subscriptions are for 1 year. If you subscribed by prior contribution, I will send you a notice before your subscription expires. If you have any questions, see the subscription page and FAQ's. If you can't find the answer, email me. Update 9/10/02 12:45PM Terms and methodology This market is going nowhere fast. Cycles have shifted a bit. Both the low and high AM cmaps were already hit. The highs came earlier than expected, so there may be a decent 8 day cycle down phase on the other side of this. Looks like the 5 hour low came around 10 AM. Then the 5 hour and 1 day cycle highs came at 11. It now looks like we'll see a low amplitude, high frequency situation, with lots of little ups and downs for the rest of the day. There's no sign of a big move either way. The 8 day cycle still appears to be in an up phase. Doc still likes the sidelines under the circumstances.
Update 9/10/02 9:15AM Terms and methodology Fucutures had a 1 day cycle low overnight and look like they are topping out heading into the close of the AM session. Stock indices had a late sell signal on the 1 day cycle near the bell. Look for a little pop on the open, then a pullback. Early highs on the SPX look like 906 and on the NDX 937. That would correspond with 1310 on the Nas. A 1 day cycle low is due at 10:30. The pullback into the low may not amount to much. After the AM lows, look for recovery into 5 hour cycle high due at 1 PM, and possible extension into 1 day cycle high due at 2:30. Today looks like a good one to be sidelined again. Still too early to short. Will re-evaluate in the PM. The 5 and 8 day cycle highs could occur at any time, with the greater probability being Wednesday.
Doc does not make trading recommendations. This update reports intraday time cycle estimates and centered moving average projections based on the Hurst cycle analysis method. Doc assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or inaccuracy of these estimates and projections. The market may or may not meet these projections. New stoolies should thoroughly familiarize themselves with the methodology before trading based on this method. There is no free lunch. Those who do not have the time or inclination to develop a trading strategy based on testing and research should not trade. Trade at your own risk.
Hold Your Nose, Big Stinker Coming (9/9/02) Over the past two trading we have witnessed a perfect example of what typically happens when 3 cycles turn up at the same time, regardless of where the 10-13 week cycle is. The market goes up. Yes, the 10-13 week cycle has probably topped out, but last week we saw the lows in the 13 day, 4 week and 6-7 week cycles come on time and on cmap. So the market bounces. It's also getting a little help from the 6 month and 10-12 month cycle up phases. That means the longer term types are still outstanding in their fields, picking their bottoms, along with their noses, and stocks. Regrettably, even though the 10-13 week cycle has topped, we may be stuck with a sideways down phase. There is only one thing that can cure that. The market either has to go up, or time has to pass while it goes nowhere for awhile. There you have it. The one thing. Until that one thing happens, it's too early to establish a swing cycle short position. The best policy at this point is to look for trades lasting part of a day or overnight, or possibly catch the top or bottom of an 8 day cycle, which might be good for a 3 day hold. This is a market which will only be profitable if you grab what you can when you can. Otherwise, you will be pureed in the bass-o-matic, or find yourself on a treadmill generating plenty of commish, but no gains for you. Of course, if you've been short since May, or March or January, fine, sit tight if you want. But be prepared to be be bored and frustrated. The worst part of this mess may be that while the 10-13 and 6-7 week cycles are juxtaposed, with the 10-13 down and the 6-7 heading up, it's possible that they could reverse phase around the same time, which would lead to an extension of the trading range. Then the two cycles might finally getting in gear for a couple weeks in November, unfortunately to the upside. That's not a given, but it is a possibility. Under any circumstances, the next major down leg is probably at least 3 months away. If the lows are tested before that, they will hold. The sphincters' reaction will be entirely predictable. We'll just have to hold our noses. The Feed added a net of $1.5 billion by rolling over $3 billion in weekend repos with $4.5 billion in new overnight repos. Only the $4.5 billion will expire Monday. Anything less than that in new repos will represent a drain. As a result of three days of draining
and Monday's small feed, Al is parked in neutral. He is smack in the
middle of his yellow caution box, which, with the exception of last week,
he has been in for three months. But he is still hugging the lower limit
of the 10% growth trend, so we can't be certain what he's doing. No more certain than he
is, anyway. At this point, seems he's paralyzed into inaction, with no clear policy other than to react to
economic data or market meltdowns in knee jerk fashion. The Feedometer, which theoretically
measures excess Feed available for bond or stock market jamming, is back to the lower
side of its 3 month range. Al does not appear to be using monetary policy
to support the market at this point, and will probably only step in when
there's danger of financial calamity stemming from a market meltdown. In
fact, it would not be surprising to see Feed taken back when the market
rallies. A few days of that and the market would collapse. The Gang of 22
may be the only thing standing between current levels and oblivion.
Without steady Feeding, they cannot continue to support the market.
All of Doc's
cycle charts
are powered by METASTOCK Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) and Sentiment The VIX fell to 38.4. The 30.96 reading on August 22 was the 10-13 week cycle high, as the upper Stool band projection dropped to that level after the fact. The indicator will likely make several touches of that band before the 6 month cycle up phase is complete. The 17 day rate of change, a
proxy for the 6-7 week cycle, is holding in a flat pattern in neutral
territory, but still in a downtrend. It should turn up imminently. The superimposed 6-7 week cycle
oscillator (red line) upticked Monday from the level which launched previous bounces. That
was the cycle low. The
10-13 week cycle oscillator (dark blue) is heading down. It should be at least
4 weeks, and as much as 7 weeks, before a low in this cycle. The down
phase is likely to be sideways, with prices breaking
lower only near the end of the cycle. The 6 month cycle oscillator is in a weak up phase. The trading stoolicator is heading down. The 10-13 week cycle oscillator topped out last week, but it is staying at a high level indicating that the uptrend is maintaining a constant, if weak, positive slope. The 10-13 week cycle should continue in a sideways down phase, or a very long topping phase, with the 6 month cycle still heading up. This would be similar to the long top and short down phase from November to February. Prices did not break lower until the final weeks. It's probably not a good idea to establish swing short positions until the 6-7 week cycle shows signs of getting in gear to the downside with the 10-13 week cycle. The short cycle oscillator is coming off the trampoline. It needs to correct upward before a low risk shortsale entry point can be considered. The only upside cmaps at
this point are for the 8-13 day cycles which point to 910-920. Because it's early in the
6-7 week cycle upturn there's a risk that cycle could push higher. A
retest of the August highs can't be ruled out. Neither can a stall near current levels. We'll have a better idea in a few days.
Fiber Nacho Dump- Support levels and downside targets.
Fiber Nacho Reflux- Resistance levels and upside targets The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 9/9/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasgap Charts Lows for the 13 day through 6-7 week cycles were probably set last week. The 17 day rate of change is still downtrending, but is in position to make an upturn after backing and filling for a week. The 29 day rate of change is flashing a sell signal, but it is not decisive. The 10-13 week cycle is entering a down phase that should last 4-6 weeks. The 6-7 and 10-12 month cycles are still headed up. The 4 and 6-7 week cycles will be trying to go up while the 10-13 week cycle people are opting out. The best bet under the circumstances is for weeks, or months, of bass-o-matic churning before the next down leg. As
always, Doc will be on the alert for signs of change in the scenario. One
of the things we should be aware of is the possibility of a spike upmove
and early failure in the 6-7 week cycle up phase. If the up phase burns
out in a week, there's still plenty of time for a nice long downleg in
conjunction with the 10-13 week cycle. That looks
like a long shot at the moment, but nothing should ever be ruled out.
Trading range markets are peculiarly fickle. They end when the players at
the margin decide, not when we decide.
Fiber Nacho Dump- Support levels and downside targets.
Fiber Nacho Reflux- Resistance levels and upside targets Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 9/9/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn AM Edition Features (Previous) These features are in morning edition, published around 9 AM ET US, or the Saturday Weak End Edition, published, uh, let's see, Saturday! Golden Stool Short term
cmaps say 145-150. The 10-13 week cycle cmap is 150. After that it will probably
spend some weeks consolidating. Then 250, here we come.
Yields are still locked in a downtrend, but a major reversal may be in
process. Gotta get through 4.10 to confirm beginning of the turn. Department of Yes We Have No Inflation
Uncle Buck's Illness
Uncle rides again! It's pretty easy to tell what the stock market will do.
Just watch Uncle. He's in a 10-13 week cycle sideways down phase. Aerospace may crash after
take-off. Look for stall at 225. Biodrech will retrace to
360-70. Should stay rangebound for months. The following suctors have short cycle up, but mixed cycles overall keep things rangebound. Bonkers Consumer Druggies HMO's Retail Housing Bubble Small Craps Energy Trannies Even tech is poised to bounce. SOX Soft Where Nutworkers Internuts Telecommunists Stoolwethers Same Pattern in most. Short cycle bounce in 10-13 week cycle top, while 6 and 10-12 month cycles still rise. Citicorpse JPM Fannie General Custer The Other General Wally's Market Maker Manipulation PiG Even techies have bounce potential and could settle into months long trading ranges. Mr. Bill The Tell Crisco DELL IBM AMZN could be more trouble
for bears if 17 is broken. See you in Intraday Stool. Dr. Stepan N. Stool Share your thoughts on the Stool Pigeons Wire.
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Explanation of Intraday Commentary-Build charts at http://www.livecharts.com. For custom time bars insert a comma after symbol and number of minutes, e.g. compx,90. This will give you a bar chart of the Nas with 90 minutes per bar. The one day cycle is usually most clear with 8 minute bars and 26/18 stochastics. It varies from day to day. Sometimes 6 minutes works best. Experiment to find the best fit for your trading style, and the market's dominant frequency at the time. The goal here is primarily to monitor the condition of the 8 and 13 day cycles. I typically use 90 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics for the 13 day cycle proxy on the indices during regular trading hours. Other cycles use 26/18 stochastics with the following: 8 days- 60 minute bars On the 24 hour futures charts, use a time per bar approximately 3 to 4 times the above number of minutes, to represent the cycles listed above. ABBREVIATIONS: cma: centered moving average
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