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Archives 12/30/01, 1/1/02, 1/2/02, 1/3/02, 1/4/02, 1/7/02, 1/8/02, 1/09/02, 1/10/02, 1/11/02, 1/14/02, 1/15/02, 1/16/02, 1/17/02, 1/18/02, 1/22/02, 1/23/02, 1/24/02, 1/25/02, 1/28/02, 1/29/02, 1/30/02, 1/31/02, 2/1/02, 2/4/02, 2/5/02, 2/06/02, 2/7/02, 2/9/02, 2/11/02, 2/12/02, 2/13/02, 2/14/02, 2/16/02, 2/19/02, 2/20/02, 2/21/02, 2/23/02, 2/25/02, 2/26/02, 2/27/02, 2/28/02, 3/1/02, 3/04/02, 3/05/02, 3/06/02, 3/7/02, 3/10/02,3/11/02, 3/12/02, 3/13/02, 3/14/02, 3/15/02, 3/18/02, 3/19/02, 3/20/02, 3/21/02, 3/22/02, 3/25/02, 3/26/02, 3/28/02, 3/30/02 4/1/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, 4/4/02, 4/6/02, 4/8/02, 4/9/02, 4/10/02, 4/11/02, 4/13/02, 4/15/02, 4/16/02, 4/17/02, 4/18/02, 4/20/02, 4/22/02, 4/23/02,4/24/02,4/25/02, 4/26/02, 4/27/02, 4/29/02, 4/30/02 5/01/02, 5/2/02, 5/4/02, 5/6/02, 5/07/02, 5/8/02, 5/09/02, 5/10/02, 5/13/02, 5/14/02, 5/15/02, 5/16/02, 5/17/02, 5/20/02, 5/21/02, 5/22/02, 5/23/02, 5/24/02, 5/28/02, 5/29/02, 5/30/02 6/01/02, 6/3/02, 6/4/02, 6/5/02, 6/6/02, 6/7/02, 6/10/02, 6/11/02, 6/12/02, 6/13/02, 6/14/02, 6/17/02, 6/18/02, 6/19/02, 6/20/02, 6/22/02, 6/24/02, 6/25/02, 6/26/02, 6/27/02, 6/30/02 7/1/02, 7/4/02, 7/5/02, 7/11/02, 7/14/02, 7/15/02, 7/16/02, 7/17/02, 7/18/02, 7/19/02, 7/22/02, 7/23/02, 7/24/02, 7/25/02, 7/27/02, 7/29/02, 7/30/02 8/1/02, 8/3/02, 8/5/02, 8/6/02, 8/7/02, 8/8/02, 8/10/02, 8/12/02, 8/13/02, 8/14/02, 8/15/02, 8/16/02, 8/19/02, 8/20/02, 8/21/02, 8/22/02, 8/23/02, 8/26/02, 8/27/02, 8/28/02, 8/29/02
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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished weeknights by
8:30PM Happy Acres, Florida Time The American Academy of Stock Proctology and Is your subscription up for renewal? If you want to renew, do nothing, unless your credit card has expired. Please be sure your credit card info is current. If your credit card has expired, you must enter the new expiration date in your Paypal account in order for your subscription to be processed. If you subscribed via Paypal, your subscription will be renewed for one year on the 90 day anniversary of your sign-up and your credit card will be charged. If you want to cancel, use the button at the bottom of the page. This applies only if you subscribed through Paypal. Mailed-in subscriptions are for 1 year. If you subscribed by prior contribution, I will send you a notice before your subscription expires. If you have any questions, see the subscription page and FAQ's. If you can't find the answer, email me. Update 9/3/02 12:45 PM Terms and methodology We got the early weakness, which smashed the downside cmaps, but no bounce. The 1 day cycle up phase is running out of time, with a high forecast no later than 2:30 and possibly as early as 1 PM. It is so weak, it can barely be called a swup. However, we need to be on the lookout for an upturn at any time in the 5 and 8 day cycles, as they have been extremely irregular of late. The downside cmap on the SPX has already been hit. There was a big $11 billion overnight repo by the Feed, with no rollovers today, but big expirations tomorrow. At this point the Feed simply clouds the issue. Doc does not make trading recommendations. This update reports intraday time cycle estimates and centered moving average projections based on the Hurst cycle analysis method. Doc assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or inaccuracy of these estimates and projections. The market may or may not meet these projections. New stoolies should thoroughly familiarize themselves with the methodology before trading based on this method. There is no free lunch. Those who do not have the time or inclination to develop a trading strategy based on testing and research should not trade. Trade at your own risk.
Update 9/3/02 8:30 AM Terms and methodology The one day cycle low is due soon after the open, with a 5 hour low due around 10:15. Look for a choppy day after that with 1 day cycle highs from mid to late PM. Whether the up phase will be a swup or will have an upward bias isn't clear. The 5 and 8 day cycle positions are unclear as well and cmaps for that cycle are uncertain and preliminary. Things could be choppy and sloppy this week as the 10-13 week cycle topping process is juxtaposed with lows due in shorter cycles within a day or two. Call it scalpers heaven, or channelingstool.com. Doc is still thinking of shorting strength and taking profits quickly, although shorts established at good entries can be held, with protection, of course. Doc does not make trading recommendations. This update reports intraday time cycle estimates and centered moving average projections based on the Hurst cycle analysis method. Doc assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or inaccuracy of these estimates and projections. The market may or may not meet these projections. New stoolies should thoroughly familiarize themselves with the methodology before trading based on this method. There is no free lunch. Those who do not have the time or inclination to develop a trading strategy based on testing and research should not trade. Trade at your own risk.
Holiday Weak End Anals - Doc Calls The Bottom (8/30/02) (Do not reveal this to anyone! not even your dog, Dogboy!) The 4 year cycle low will be on February 7, 2003, at 722 on the Nasgap and 500 on the Sphincters Index. Keep in mind, this will be in the context of a secular bear. Details below. The Feed added a net $2.25 billion by adding $5 billion in 4 day repos for the holiday weekend while $2.7 billion in overnight repos expired. There are no expirations Tuesday. Chicago manufacturing data was stronger than expected, and personal consumption expenditures had a huge jump in July. No surprise there if you've been watching the money supply. As we watched the uptick in the market and broad money supply, it was totally predictable that we'd see upticks in the economic data. It was so easy to predict that even a part time convenience store clerk saw it coming after the market began to rally. Was the market somehow prescient, was it somehow discounting this improvement in personal spending, manufacturing and also durable goods? Of course not! What really happened was that a big pile of money just dropped out of the sky. So investors and consumers, jammed up on the interstates in summer traffic, all scurried out of their broken down old cars and ran around like drunken looters picking up all this free money. Since it wasn't theirs, naturally they all went out and bought something real quick, like a new car, or some "cheap" stock, because, let's face it, it's not too often you get free money falling out of the sky. As soon as that free money stops falling, the spending and speculating will stop dead, and the house that free credit built will come tumbling down. As expected, Al took the Feed to
the top of his caution box. What next? Given the data out of Chicago, Doc
guesses that Al will drain a little, back toward the bottom of the box.
The stock market will not take kindly to that, if he does. The Feedometer
rose but the trend of draining is unbroken. There's just not enough here
for a good old fashioned jam session. Doc continues to think that Al has
pulled the plug, but we need to keep an eye on the Feedometer trend, as
always.
Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) and Sentiment
The VIX downticked to 35.80.
A few more days in the middle of the inverted scale Stool Bands could pull
the upper band down to touch the recent peak, confirming a 10-13 week
cycle high. The 17 day rate of change is starting to roll over. The red
line on the chart is the superimposed 6-7 week cycle oscillator. It's
still heading down in what should be the last week of this cycle. The
10-13 week cycle oscillator (dark blue) is beginning to roll over. These
two oscillators could reverse directions nearly simultaneously. The 29 day
rate of change is still headed up, reaching the level where it peaked in
November. The market continued higher for a few weeks after that.
The 6 month cycle oscillator is still headed up, in what appears to be a
sideway up phase. The trading stoolicator is topping out. The 10-13 week
cycle oscillator is also topping out, but the short cycle oscillator is
near the trampoline level. Next week may be soft, but a bounce could begin
art any time. Mixed cyclicality will lead to a rangebound market for
weeks. Short term downside cmaps are 880-910, and upside camps for the
10-13 week cycle are still around 960-970, and possibly higher.
Fiber Nacho Reflux- Resistance levels
Fiber Nacho Barf- Support levels
The SPX is hovering around the bottom of its secular trend channel with
the 6 month cycle in an up phase. It has failed to break the centerline of
the descending 4 year cycle channel. When the intermediate cycle
rolls over, it will retest the July low.
There are two possible long term centered moving average projections for
the 4 year cycle low. 700 is based on the 4 year cycle. 500 is based on a
"guess" for the 8 year cycle. Consider it a worst case scenario
for now. The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 8/30/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasgap Charts The 17 day rate of change, proxy for the 6-7 week cycle has formed a top pattern. Another downtick will confirm the down phase. The 4 week cycle is down and is due for a low within 5 days. Shorter cycles have developed an irregular heartbeat but look like they could drop below 1300 again next week. The 6
month cycle up phase definitely is looking more and more like a weak swup.
A rollover in the 10-13 week cycle could be the precursor to an early
failure in the 6 month cycle which would be followed by a steady drop to
either 1100 in 4 to 6 weeks, and/or 722 in the next 4-5 months. That
should be the 4 year cycle low. So for arguments sake, let's say this 4
year cycle bear will end on February 7, 2003, at 722 on the Nas.
Fiber Nacho Upchuck Levels- Resistance
Fiber Nacho Dump Levels- Support
The long term chart shows prices hugging the center line of the 4 year
cycle channel and bumping along the bottom of the secular trend channel.
The intermediate (6 month) cycle is in a sideways up phase.
Using centered moving averages and linear regressions there are two
possibilities for the 4 year cycle low due this year or early next, 1100
or 722. That's for the cycle low only, not the bottom of the secular bear
market. Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 8/30/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn AM Edition Features (Previous) These features are in morning edition, published around 9 AM ET US, or the Saturday Weak End Edition, published, uh, let's see, Saturday! Golden Stool More
indicators are getting in gear to the upside. 13 day cycle cmap is 133. 10
week and 6-7 week cycle cmaps are 130., but there's no sign of a top
yet. Be watchful and follow the indicators.
Headed for a recount after the hanging chad. Uncle Buck's Illness
Buck is trading around 106 this morning this morning. He's sick again
following last week's intermediate cycle roll over. 104 should hold for
the time being. A major collapse may lie beyond a bounce off that
level.
Bonks- Stoolicator gave
sell signal Friday. Other indicators should follow, the 10-13 week cycle
ozzie first. Consumer- 10-13 week cycle
ozzie also near sell signal. Drugs- 10-13 week cycle top
under way here too. Retail- Close to a signal
but not quite there as of Friday. Trannies- Well defined
downtrend with Stoolicator and 17 day rate of change sell signals Friday. SOX- Multiple short and
intermediate downturns as index heads to bottom of long term channel and
beyond.. Soft Where- Cycles began
turning down last week but no downturn on 10-13 week ozzie yet.. Question
is whether bottom holds as bounce is due within 2-3 days. Nutworkers- Considering the
last month was an up phase, what will the down look like? Internuts look
the same. Stoolwethers AMZN- 10-13 week cycle
ozzie sell signal part of massive right shoulder? AhOL- Another chart with a
10-13 week cycle sell signal Friday. Citicorpse- Another 10-13
week cycle ozzie topping out. General Custer- Last stand
closing as 10-13 week and 6 month cycles top out. Market Maker Management- On
verge of 10-13 week cycle roll over. CSCO- Tech leader also top
building. DELL- Ditto. INTC- Bottom dropping with
bounce due within 2 days. Mr. Bill- coming off
perfect short setup. But bounce due in a day or two to complete 10-13 week
cycle top. IBM- Short cycle nears low
following Big Giant Whopsaw sell signal.
See you in Intraday Stool. Dr. Stepan N. Stool Share your thoughts on the Stool Pigeons Wire.
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Explanation of Intraday Commentary-Build charts at http://www.livecharts.com. For custom time bars insert a comma after symbol and number of minutes, e.g. compx,90. This will give you a bar chart of the Nas with 90 minutes per bar. The one day cycle is usually most clear with 8 minute bars and 26/18 stochastics. It varies from day to day. Sometimes 6 minutes works best. Experiment to find the best fit for your trading style, and the market's dominant frequency at the time. The goal here is primarily to monitor the condition of the 8 and 13 day cycles. I typically use 90 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics for the 13 day cycle proxy on the indices during regular trading hours. Other cycles use 26/18 stochastics with the following: 8 days- 60 minute bars On the 24 hour futures charts, use a time per bar approximately 3 to 4 times the above number of minutes, to represent the cycles listed above. ABBREVIATIONS: cma: centered moving average
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. (Sorry about the bull.)
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