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Archives 12/30/01, 1/1/02, 1/2/02, 1/3/02, 1/4/02, 1/7/02, 1/8/02, 1/09/02, 1/10/02, 1/11/02, 1/14/02, 1/15/02, 1/16/02, 1/17/02, 1/18/02, 1/22/02, 1/23/02, 1/24/02, 1/25/02, 1/28/02, 1/29/02, 1/30/02, 1/31/02, 2/1/02, 2/4/02, 2/5/02, 2/06/02, 2/7/02, 2/9/02, 2/11/02, 2/12/02, 2/13/02, 2/14/02, 2/16/02, 2/19/02, 2/20/02, 2/21/02, 2/23/02, 2/25/02, 2/26/02, 2/27/02, 2/28/02, 3/1/02, 3/04/02, 3/05/02, 3/06/02, 3/7/02, 3/10/02,3/11/02, 3/12/02, 3/13/02, 3/14/02, 3/15/02, 3/18/02, 3/19/02, 3/20/02, 3/21/02, 3/22/02, 3/25/02, 3/26/02, 3/28/02, 3/30/02 4/1/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, 4/4/02, 4/6/02, 4/8/02, 4/9/02, 4/10/02, 4/11/02, 4/13/02, 4/15/02, 4/16/02, 4/17/02, 4/18/02, 4/20/02, 4/22/02, 4/23/02,4/24/02,4/25/02, 4/26/02, 4/27/02, 4/29/02, 4/30/02 5/01/02, 5/2/02, 5/4/02, 5/6/02, 5/07/02, 5/8/02, 5/09/02, 5/10/02, 5/13/02, 5/14/02, 5/15/02, 5/16/02, 5/17/02, 5/20/02, 5/21/02, 5/22/02, 5/23/02, 5/24/02, 5/28/02, 5/29/02, 5/30/02 6/01/02, 6/3/02, 6/4/02, 6/5/02, 6/6/02, 6/7/02, 6/10/02, 6/11/02, 6/12/02, 6/13/02, 6/14/02, 6/17/02, 6/18/02, 6/19/02, 6/20/02, 6/22/02, 6/24/02, 6/25/02, 6/26/02, 6/27/02, 6/30/02 7/1/02, 7/4/02, 7/5/02, 7/11/02, 7/14/02, 7/15/02, 7/16/02, 7/17/02, 7/18/02, 7/19/02, 7/22/02, 7/23/02, 7/24/02, 7/25/02, 7/27/02, 7/29/02, 7/30/02 8/1/02, 8/3/02, 8/5/02, 8/6/02, 8/7/02, 8/8/02, 8/10/02, 8/12/02, 8/13/02, 8/14/02, 8/15/02, 8/16/02, 8/19/02, 8/20/02, 8/21/02, 8/22/02, 8/23/02, 8/26/02, 8/27/02, 8/28/02, 8/29/02, 8/30/02 9/3/02, 9/4/02, 9/5/02. 9/6/02, 9/9/02
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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished weeknights by
8:30PM Happy Acres, Florida Time The American Academy of Stock Proctology and Is your subscription up for renewal? If you want to renew, do nothing, unless your credit card has expired. Please be sure your credit card info is current. If your credit card has expired, you must enter the new expiration date in your Paypal account in order for your subscription to be processed. If you subscribed via Paypal, your subscription will be renewed for one year on the 90 day anniversary of your sign-up and your credit card will be charged. If you want to cancel, use the button at the bottom of the page. This applies only if you subscribed through Paypal. Mailed-in subscriptions are for 1 year. If you subscribed by prior contribution, I will send you a notice before your subscription expires. If you have any questions, see the subscription page and FAQ's. If you can't find the answer, email me. Update 9/11/20 1:30PM Terms and methodology Pretty good guess for the early action. The averages topped out near the cmaps, and projected times. The 5 hour and 1 day cycles are heading down. Look for lows around 2:30 and at the bell. The 8 day cycle ozzie is beginning to reverse to the downside. top formation is underway, but may not be complete. Taking bets on SPX close of 911.
Update 9/11/20 11:30AM Terms and methodology Here are the projections based on the AM jam. The 8 day cycle cmaps have been hit.
Doc does not make trading recommendations. This update reports intraday time cycle estimates and centered moving average projections based on the Hurst cycle analysis method. Doc assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or inaccuracy of these estimates and projections. The market may or may not meet these projections. New stoolies should thoroughly familiarize themselves with the methodology before trading based on this method. There is no free lunch. Those who do not have the time or inclination to develop a trading strategy based on testing and research should not trade. Trade at your own risk.
Update 9/11/02 10:55AM Terms and methodology Fucutures are up in honor of this day. Looks like a hot open, about 20 points up. Once we see the opening, I will post cmaps. Look for highs shortly after the open, and again about 12:30. The 5 and 8 day cycle highs could occur at any time JP Morgan's Turning Brown (9/10/02) The thing to do now is to get September 11 over with, and get on with our lives. Tomorrow should be a prayerful day for all of us. Then it's back to business as usual on Thursday, assuming the T's don't manage to pull off something horrendous. Doc, in spite of his misgivings about our gummit's actions "in defense of liberty", hopes to heck that our little war has done more than we give credit for to eviscerate the worldwide T network, and that all the threats are nothing but hot air. None of us have a clue how the market will behave tomorrow. Doc suspects it will be another quiet day, and may even be an 8 day cycle top. Beyond that, there remain cyclical forces which may give the market a more or less neutral tone for at least a few weeks. The 10-13 week cycle is in what looks like a sideways down phase. That means that rising 4 week and 6-7 week cycles can push prices a bit higher for a week or two. A lot of that is attributable to short covering. For people asking who would buy this crapola at these levels, the answer is simple. Us. Then there are the folks with a six month or 1 year time horizon. These are mostly your portfolio sphincter types and the "believers" from the Brown commercial. (I believe in the market, I believe in me.) They are still out there bottom picking, after having done no buying through most of the summer. In the absence of selling, the market will go up. And if you're looking for an on-line broker, remember who now owns Brown & Co., and go somewhere else. The Feed added a net of $1.5 billion by rolling over $4.5 billion in overnight repos with $6.0 billion in new 2 day repos. Al seems mildly concerned about tomorrow. There are no expirations tomorrow. In addition to the $6 billion expiring Thursday, there are the usual 28 day repos, which total $4 billion. There are three trends evident on the Feed Index. One is the 10% growth trend beginning in May of 2001. It looks like they are beginning to slow Feed growth below that trend. The blue channel going back to last December suggests they may now be targeting an 8% growth rate. Then there's the golden box which says they've stopped growing Feed altogether over the last three months. Doc suspects that the 8% growth channel will be the path for awhile. Dang, looks a lot like the
gold chart! The Feedometer, which theoretically
measures excess Feed available for bond or stock market jamming, remains
in the lower portion of its 3 month range. Al does not appear to be using
monetary policy to support the market at this point. To the contrary, it
looks like they used the recent rally as a cover for slowing Feed growth a
bit. Although today's $6 billion did smell a bit pre-emptive, didn't it?
All of Doc's
cycle charts
are powered by METASTOCK Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) and Sentiment The VIX fell to 36.96. The 30.96 reading on August 22 was the 10-13 week cycle high. The indicator will likely make several touches of that band before the 6 month cycle up phase is complete. A move below 35 could mark a short term high, but short cycle tops normally last up to a week, so there's no need to jump the gun. The 17 day rate of change, a
proxy for the 6-7 week cycle, is still holding in a flat pattern in neutral
territory. The superimposed 6-7 week cycle
oscillator (red line) upticked Monday from the level which launched previous bounces. That
was the cycle low. The
10-13 week cycle oscillator (dark blue) is heading down. It should be at least
4 weeks, and as much as 7 weeks, before a low in this cycle. The down
phase should be sideways, with prices breaking
lower only near the end of the cycle. If the 17 day rate of change breaks
down instead of up, that would signal failure of the up phase, and would
mean that the 10-13 week cycle down phase was pushing down enough to
overcome the upside influences of shorter cycles. In particular if both
the 17 day and 29 day R.O.C.'s dropped below zero, that would be a signal
to get short. The 6 month cycle oscillator is in a weak up phase. On the other hand, the trading stoolicator is heading down. The stoolicator as currently configured mimics the 10-13 week cycle. The 10-13 week cycle oscillator topped out last week, but it is staying at a high level indicating that the uptrend is maintaining a constant, if weak, positive slope. The 10-13 week cycle should continue in a sideways down phase, or a very long topping phase, while the 6 month cycle is still heading up. This would be similar to the long top and short down phase from November to February. Prices did not break lower until the final weeks. It's probably not a good idea to establish swing short positions until the 6-7 week cycle shows signs of getting in gear to the downside with the 10-13 week cycle. Keep an eye on the 17 day rate of change for any sign that the market is either strengthening or weakening. The short cycle oscillator has begun its upward correction. A little more recovery in this indicator will put it in position for a good sell signal. The only upside cmaps at
this point are for the 8-13 day cycles which point to 910-920. Because it's early in the
6-7 week cycle upturn there's a risk of higher highs. A
retest of the August highs can't be ruled out. Neither can a stall near current levels. We'll have a better idea in a few days.
According to longer term cmap configurations, a shot at 1000 is still
possible before the 6 month cycle peak.
Fiber Nacho Dump- Support levels and downside targets.
Fiber Nacho Reflux- Resistance levels and upside targets The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 9/10/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasgap Charts The Nas extended its rally off last weeks short cycle lows. The 17 day rate of change is treading water, and has not yet confirmed the upturn. The 29 day rate of change is flashing a sell signal, but it is not decisive. A move of these two momentum indicators off the neutral line in the same direction will signal a move with some staying power, regardless of direction. Unfortunately for traders, the market could stay in a narrow trading range for awhile. The forces of buying and selling are relatively in balance at the moment, and juxtaposed cycles could keep it that way for a couple of weeks. Likewise, a big rock in the pond will create enough wave action of its own to tip the balance. A neutral market is especially susceptible to big swings as a result of news and noise. They would not be the drivers of a trend but could create a short tradable swing. The 10-13 week cycle is in a down phase that should last 4-6 weeks. The 6-7 and 10-12 month cycles are still headed up. The 4 and 6-7 week cycles will be trying to go up while the 10-13 week cycle heads down or sideways. Stay
alert for any sign that the market may be getting in gear, in either
direction. For now, prices are likely to meander. The projections below
suggest that October may turn out to be a weak month after all.
Fiber Nacho Dump- Support levels and downside targets.
Fiber Nacho Reflux- Resistance levels and upside targets Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 9/10/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn AM Edition Features (Previous) These features are in morning edition, published around 9 AM ET US, or the Saturday Weak End Edition, published, uh, let's see, Saturday! Golden Stool The 13 day
cycle down phase has a cmap of 126, but there's still and upside cmap of
154 on the 10-13 week cycle.
Downtrend still intact. Could still plunge to long term cmaps of 3.70-3.80
before completing bottom. Uncle Buck's Illness
Classic picture of a sideways down phase in the 10-13 week cycle, with
short cycles heading up to test the top of channel.
Department of Economic Data - Want to know what the economic data
will look like next month? Here's a clue. Industrial metals prices are a
good gauge of manufacturing activity and demand in real time. Ohhhh, yes
we have no inflation! Of course, as yesterday's chart showed, overall
commodity prices are forging new highs. Aerospace- The picture of
ambiguity. Doc's bet is that the sideways up phase in the 10-13 week cycle
will be followed by a down phase that retests the July low. In most sectors short cycles are in up phases, but mixed cyclicality in longer cycles will keep things rangebound. Biodrech Bonkers Consumer Druggies Retail Housing Not-a-Bubble shows
signs of long term top formation. Small Crap- Moment of Truth
is at hand. Energy also faces a moment
of decision. Trannies- Shortable, with
stops above the trendline. Tech is drech- Doc is thinking, when this rally runs out of gas, he's gonna short 'em again. SOX Soft Where Nutworkers Internuts Telecommies Stoolwethers Ahol- The party's about
over. JPM- Is this dude in
trouble or what? General Custer wants to
bounce. Wally testing high on mixed
signals. PiG- Putting on lipstick Mr. Bill wants to get high
like last month. DELL- Farmer getting out. Tell- Talk about a dead
cat! BM-Wants to try for 80
again. Fat chance. Crisco skid can also
bounce.
See you in Intraday Stool. Dr. Stepan N. Stool Share your thoughts on the Stool Pigeons Wire.
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Explanation of Intraday Commentary-Build charts at http://www.livecharts.com. For custom time bars insert a comma after symbol and number of minutes, e.g. compx,90. This will give you a bar chart of the Nas with 90 minutes per bar. The one day cycle is usually most clear with 8 minute bars and 26/18 stochastics. It varies from day to day. Sometimes 6 minutes works best. Experiment to find the best fit for your trading style, and the market's dominant frequency at the time. The goal here is primarily to monitor the condition of the 8 and 13 day cycles. I typically use 90 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics for the 13 day cycle proxy on the indices during regular trading hours. Other cycles use 26/18 stochastics with the following: 8 days- 60 minute bars On the 24 hour futures charts, use a time per bar approximately 3 to 4 times the above number of minutes, to represent the cycles listed above. ABBREVIATIONS: cma: centered moving average
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. (Sorry about the bull.)
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