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Archives 12/30/01, 1/1/02, 1/2/02, 1/3/02, 1/4/02, 1/7/02, 1/8/02, 1/09/02, 1/10/02, 1/11/02, 1/14/02, 1/15/02, 1/16/02, 1/17/02, 1/18/02, 1/22/02, 1/23/02, 1/24/02, 1/25/02, 1/28/02, 1/29/02, 1/30/02, 1/31/02, 2/1/02, 2/4/02, 2/5/02, 2/06/02, 2/7/02, 2/9/02, 2/11/02, 2/12/02, 2/13/02, 2/14/02, 2/16/02, 2/19/02, 2/20/02, 2/21/02, 2/23/02, 2/25/02, 2/26/02, 2/27/02, 2/28/02, 3/1/02, 3/04/02, 3/05/02, 3/06/02, 3/7/02, 3/10/02,3/11/02, 3/12/02, 3/13/02, 3/14/02, 3/15/02, 3/18/02, 3/19/02, 3/20/02, 3/21/02, 3/22/02, 3/25/02, 3/26/02, 3/28/02, 3/30/02 4/1/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, 4/4/02, 4/6/02, 4/8/02, 4/9/02, 4/10/02, 4/11/02, 4/13/02, 4/15/02, 4/16/02, 4/17/02, 4/18/02, 4/20/02, 4/22/02, 4/23/02,4/24/02,4/25/02, 4/26/02, 4/27/02, 4/29/02, 4/30/02 5/01/02, 5/2/02, 5/4/02, 5/6/02, 5/07/02, 5/8/02, 5/09/02, 5/10/02, 5/13/02, 5/14/02, 5/15/02, 5/16/02, 5/17/02, 5/20/02, 5/21/02, 5/22/02, 5/23/02, 5/24/02, 5/28/02, 5/29/02, 5/30/02 6/01/02, 6/3/02, 6/4/02, 6/5/02, 6/6/02, 6/7/02, 6/10/02, 6/11/02, 6/12/02, 6/13/02, 6/14/02, 6/17/02, 6/18/02, 6/19/02, 6/20/02, 6/22/02, 6/24/02, 6/25/02, 6/26/02, 6/27/02, 6/30/02 7/1/02, 7/4/02, 7/5/02, 7/11/02, 7/14/02, 7/15/02, 7/16/02, 7/17/02, 7/18/02, 7/19/02, 7/22/02, 7/23/02, 7/24/02, 7/25/02, 7/27/02, 7/29/02, 7/30/02
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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished weeknights by
8:30PM Happy Acres, Florida Time The American Academy of Stock Proctology and Is your subscription up for renewal? If you want to renew, do nothing, unless your credit card has expired. Please be sure your credit card info is current. If your credit card has expired, you must enter the new expiration date in your Paypal account in order for your subscription to be processed. If you subscribed via Paypal, your subscription will be renewed for one year on the 90 day anniversary of your sign-up and your credit card will be charged. If you want to cancel, use the button at the bottom of the page. This applies only if you subscribed through Paypal. Mailed-in subscriptions are for 1 year. If you subscribed by prior contribution, I will send you a notice before your subscription expires. If you have any questions, see the subscription page and FAQ's. If you can't find the answer, email me. Limited Publication Schedule - (7/29/02) Due to a death in the family, I will be traveling for the remainder of the week and will rejoin you sometime this weekend. I will publish an abbreviated nightly update when possible, but will be unable to do the intraday updates. See you this weekend. Chop Chop (8/1/02) On Thursday morning when I posted in the Intraday Stool threads that the charts suggested that the market would chop for awhile, I did mean a karate chop. The market does indeed resemble the pictures of "Galloping Gertie" the suspension bridge that collapsed back in the 1940's, (credit to stoolie Gladiator for his reminder about that great analogy to this market..
Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) and Sentiment
Couple of interesting things
on the SPX chart. The VIX ran to the upper inner Stool Band on Monday and
Tuesday. That's good enough for a short term sell signal if the market is
still in a downtrend, and lo and behold, the rally stropped dead at the
upper channel of the 6 month cycle band on the second chart below. (dark
blue channel.) The 6-7 week and 10-13 week cycle up phases are beginning
to smell like a garden variety, albeit extremely volatile, swup, and not
the powerful six month cycle up phase it looked like it might be.
The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 8/1/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasgap Charts Well, looky here boys and girls. The moment of truth came, and went! And nothing happened! All of the downtrending cycle channels are still intact. The short cycle got to overbought and got its head chopped off. The 10-13 week cycle indicator is in an up phase, but this sucker looks like it's headed for a retest of the low. A weak bounce off the retest would guarantee a Hobbesian up phase. Nasty, brutish, and short. From the looks of the indicators, the 6-7 month cycle hasn't quite turned yet after all, and the Nas may still have a date with that sub 1100 cmap. Another down day Friday, and Doc might even do a George Zimmer.
Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 8/1/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn AM Edition Features (Previous) These features are in morning edition, published around 9 AM ET US, or the Saturday Weak End Edition, published, uh, let's see, Saturday! Suctor Watch- Will return this weekend Stoolwethers -Will return this weekend Uncle Buck's Illness Golden Stool See you in Intraday Stool. Dr. Stepan N. Stool Share your thoughts on the Stool Pigeons Wire.
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Explanation of Intraday Commentary-Build charts at http://www.livecharts.com. For custom time bars insert a comma after symbol and number of minutes, e.g. compx,90. This will give you a bar chart of the Nas with 90 minutes per bar. The one day cycle is usually most clear with 8 minute bars and 26/18 stochastics. It varies from day to day. Sometimes 6 minutes works best. Experiment to find the best fit for your trading style, and the market's dominant frequency at the time. The goal here is primarily to monitor the condition of the 8 and 13 day cycles. I typically use 90 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics for the 13 day cycle proxy on the indices during regular trading hours. Other cycles use 26/18 stochastics with the following: 8 days- 60 minute bars On the 24 hour futures charts, use a time per bar approximately 3 to 4 times the above number of minutes, to represent the cycles listed above. ABBREVIATIONS: cma: centered moving average |
Veddy
in-ter-esting. Was the sharp selloff the beginning of a top, or just
a normal blip in a sideways up phase consolidation? Consider that the 6-7
week cycle is just over 6 weeks from the last high, that the 4 week cycle
is almost 4 weeks from its last high, and that on a very short term basis
the Dow is 13 days from the last minor peak, with the 13 day oscillator
turning down. There's plenty of reason to be suspicious. Suspicious of
what you ask? Suspicious that the market's wild swings of the last few
weeks, in particular the mushroom cloud rally, may have been a reflection
of a derivatives crisis, the picture of a modern day Galloping Gertie.
. (Sorry about the bull.)
You've seen the software advertised on TV. 
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