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10 Minute Bar Charts 6/10/02 Dow Jokes Inflatables
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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished 5 times
per week by the American Academy of Stock Proctology and Market Sideshow Freaks (6/10/02) Terrorism fears shook Wall Street today as Abby Justa Colon reiterated her bullish stance. Fortunately, the market has become immune to her attacks. Other strat-ego-ists chimed in, including Prunedential's Dr. Ed the talking horse's ass, and Tobias Leftdabitch of Slimyhand Smith Borkedme. Does Dr. Stool have to tell you what they said? No. You know what they said, the market's going up blah blah blah. Undervalued blah blah blah. The model is blah blah blah. Not working because blah blah blah. These people are pathetic. For two years their incompetence and dishonesty has been exposed for all the world to see. They are no longer an issue. The market doesn't budge. No one pays attention any more. Their one-way thundering herd mental institutional customers are all fully invested anyway. After all, it's their sacred duty to stay fully invested. Ed Cursenerd of YouBS (enough said), Tom the Tin Man Galvin of Creditsuisse Cheese, Jeffrey Applegate Scandal of LayMe Brothers, and Alfred What Me Worry E. Goldman of Agony Edwards and Art Smokin Hogan of Jerkfries are all in the same boat. All parroting the same boring timeworn old lines. But nobody's listening and nobody cares. Ah, but Crapvision cares - kid gloves care. Sue Herass and Ron Insane interviewed The Mother tonight. They treated the Street's greatest sheep-fleecing, flimflamming, con artist mastermind as if she were the embodiment of Joan of Arc, Amelia Earhart, and the Virgin Mary rolled into one. Watching supposed professional reporters serve up obviously scripted, pre-screened questions, is sickening. They don't even try to hide the fact that the questions are scripted. The Mother's answers are on the screen before the question is even asked. Do they give the whoremaster the questions in advance for prior approval? There was not a single question about her track record, not one question about the fact that her recommended strategies over the past three years have cost millions of investors untold billions in losses. The interview was just another unvarnished infomercial sales pitch by the largest market making firm in the universe, Goldman Sucks. One can only wonder how much Crapvision gets paid to feature this disgusting garbage. It is a wonder that Insane and Herass can go home at night and face their families. As for two folks Doc generally likes, Tom McManus of Bonk of America got a little less bearish. That's disturbing, but he's still only 55% weighted in stocks, 40% bonds and 5% cash. Tom only expects a small rally. It's clear that he's talking a trade here. Doc thinks he's way too premature. Then there's our Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde friend Richard Bernstein of Mohel Lynch (Oy do we got tips for you.) Rich is Dr. Jekyll today, quoted in the media as saying it won't be the bottom until investors stop asking whether it is. Rich sometimes tells it like it is, especially when speaking about the market as a whole. But he still pitches stocks and sectors when necessary for Mohel to move inventory. Doc wants to like Rich, but at times feels that he's a two faced rat in bear's clothing. The bottom line is that if they work for Wall Street, they cannot be trusted. But, it's meaningless, because we know the Street's portfolio sphincter customers are all fully invested, the sheeple are not funneling in any new money, The Feed isn't jamming, and furriners are starting to get the hell out while the getting's good. Nobody's listening to the sideshow freak strat-ego-ists, nobody cares any more, and the market is working it's way inexorably, inevitably lower. The Feed,
having hit the bottom of the Total Feed Index
growth channel after draining for a week, added reserves today via $7.5
billion in 3 day repos. This rolled $2.1 billion in over-the-weekend repos,
leaving an extra $5.4 billion with The Gang of 22 primary dealers to do as
they wish. There's not enough here to support the stock market, let alone
jam it. It takes a much bigger excess Feed to move the market, especially
when the trend is as weak as it is. The lagging Slow Feedometer is
humping a little, but unless it breaks out above the March
high, it will be of no help to stocks. With economic data running
positive, and Uncle Buck and the Long Bong subject to further hits,
the Fed is likely to remain cautious about excessive Feeding. The Feed is
but one leg of the three legged capital stool. The other two legs are the
sheeple, the mental institutions who manage the sheeple's money, the Gang
of 22, and furriners. Even if one of the other two legs is trying to
provide support, the stool comes crashing down.
Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) and Sentiment The portfolio sphincters held on to a 3 point gain in their index after sloughing off 8 points in the last half hour. The 17 day rate of change, which represents the 6-7 week cycle, held its ground, but the downtrend is undisturbed. The superimposed 6-7 week cycle oscillator (red line with bright green smoother) dropped. The 10-13 week cycle oscillator (teal) finally began to turn down. This is a lagging, confirming indicator. The 29 day rate of change is flat in a negative pattern indicating trending. The VIX fell to 26.15. On the inverted scale chart, VIX has begun moving back up toward the center of the Stool Band. The six month trend toward complacency has been broken, and the market is now moving back toward "concern" in its ultimate journey to outright panic. The Stool Band is trending down, and what was "extreme" enough in the last couple of cycles to indicate a turning point will no longer be. The recent touch of the inner band corresponds with a possible weak 4 week cycle low. The big low won't come until the VIX is well above 35, and breaks the lower Stool Band in its final panic stage. The blue channel lines are the extension of a linear
regression channel from the February and May 2001 highs. The 6 month cycle
oscillator started slithering lower again, suggesting that the downtrnd in
this cycle is beginning to accelerate. The trading
stoolicator is still topping out. The short cycle oscillator is correcting
upward, which means that the downward slope of the shortest trading cycles
is moderating as longer cycles begin to weaken. The 10-13
week cycle oscillator is rolling over to the downside. When the short
cycles get back in gear, you are going to see a dramatic price drop that
will test the September low. There's enough time in this 10-13 week wave
for a brief bounce off the September low, then another big selloff. The spooky stuff continues. The SPX bounced off
a double 161.8%
fibo retracement level and did a 23.6% retracement where it bumped its
head. The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 6/10/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasgap Charts The Nasty took a 2% haircut in the last half hour, before upticking in the last 5 minutes to close with a 5 point loss at 1537. The 6 month cycle time series spread is still stalled. Flat below zero is still negative, representing a trending market. The 10-13 week cycle oscillator and the trading stoolicator are flashing initial sell signals. That suggests that the decline has barely begun. The short
cycle oscillator is inching higher, which means a diminution in selling,
but not enough to get the market off its butt. When the selling picks up
again, the Nasty will collapse. The 1550-90 area
is now resistance. The big picture is even worse in the Nascrap 100.
It is on the verge of breaking the September low. That should be good for
an acceleration in selling, followed by the obligatory bottom picking
bounce. There are
no serious fib levels between here and the September lows. Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 6/10/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn Long bond yields are on the
cusp...of something. This certainly looks like a bottom is forming. Since
there's been no decoupling from stock prices yet, should we worry that
stock prices are also, dare I say it, bottoming? When (if?) they start
selling bonds heavily, will the money go into stocks yet again? Doc
doesn't have the answer. Anything's possible in Wall Street Wonderland.
There's also no guarantee that yields won't still head south. Hopefully
the market will tip its hand sooner, rather than later. The short
cycle is up. 42-25 is support. Doc expects the SOX to continue trending
lower after a pause. The Software
stocks are still in a sideways up phase in the 10-13 week cycle. It is
approaching a top. When it turns down, the bottom will drop out. IBM (don't
they all) is approaching the end of a 10-13 week cycle sideways up phase.
Odds are, the lows will be broken decisively on the downleg. AhOL is
headed for single digits but will probably bounce from the 14-15 area. Dr. Bull
requested this one. Hope springs eternal. CLRO is a communications
company. It's been under distribution for seven months. 14-15 is a support
zone and it could bounce. Should be the last one before heading toward
$10.00. Henceforth and forevermore, if you would like to request a "stocko", please post your request in Dear Dr. Stool. If you have not already registered for the message board, please do so. The only required info is user name and password which you choose yourself, and your email address, which you can keep private by selecting the keep private option. Doc looks forward to featuring your ideas. We've had some good ones! Uncle Buck's Illness An international team of
medical specialists performed emergency medial procedures to save Buck
overnight. But buck hasn't shown any propensity to rally. Golden Stool Ouch! The short cycle ozzie is Dover Sole, but we're only in the rinse cycle. The 4 week cycle centered moving average projection is 116. Then we gotta go through the spin cycle.
See you in Intraday Stool. Dr. Stepan N. Stool Let me know what you think on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Previous complete issue with all features Welcome To New Subscribers Welcome, and thank you for subscribing to the Anals of Stock Proctology. You may note some subtle differences in style now that this is no longer a free service. The perspective is still bearish, but it will have a more balanced approach than my message board ravings. You won't see me screaming "BUY" about anything except perhaps gold, but you will see stronger indications of areas and times when I think it might be a good idea to avoid being short. And I promise that I will lose my temper from time to time to keep you entertained! There's also a new feature, Doc's By Request Stock O' The Day. If you have a stock you're interested in, send an email to [email protected], naming the stock, and why you think Doc should look at it, in 25 words or less. 26 words, and you're disqualified! Those that look interesting, Doc will try to feature here within the next day or two. If you have suggestions about other features you'd like to see, send them along to [email protected]. Again, thanks for subscribing!
Explanation of Intraday Commentary-Build charts at http://www.livecharts.com. For custom time bars insert a comma after symbol and number of minutes, e.g. compx,90. This will give you a bar chart of the Nas with 90 minutes per bar. The one day cycle is usually most clear with 8 minute bars and 26/18 stochastics. It varies from day to day. Sometimes 6 minutes works best. Experiment to find the best fit for your trading style, and the market's dominant frequency at the time. The goal here is primarily to monitor the condition of the 8 and 13 day cycles. I typically use 90 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics for the 13 day cycle proxy on the indices during regular trading hours. Other cycles use 26/18 stochastics with the following: 8 days- 60 minute bars On the 24 hour futures charts, use a time per bar approximately 3 to 4 times the above number of minutes, to represent the cycles listed above. ABBREVIATIONS: cma: centered moving average |
![[Most Recent XAU from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_nasdaq_en_2.gif)
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The
stage managers did yeoman work today, getting the Dow Jokes to reflect a
far better performance than the market as a whole. This is bad news for
the sheeple because if they succeed in doing this for a few days the rest
of the market will follow suit, and more sheep will get sucked in again
only to be shorn in a few more days.
. (Sorry about the bull.)
You've seen the software advertised on TV. 
