|
Archives 12/30/01, 1/1/02, 1/2/02, 1/3/02, 1/4/02, 1/7/02, 1/8/02, 1/09/02, 1/10/02, 1/11/02, 1/14/02, 1/15/02, 1/16/02, 1/17/02, 1/18/02, 1/22/02, 1/23/02, 1/24/02, 1/25/02, 1/28/02, 1/29/02, 1/30/02, 1/31/02, 2/1/02, 2/4/02, 2/5/02, 2/06/02, 2/7/02, 2/9/02, 2/11/02, 2/12/02, 2/13/02, 2/14/02, 2/16/02, 2/19/02, 2/20/02, 2/21/02, 2/23/02, 2/25/02, 2/26/02, 2/27/02, 2/28/02, 3/1/02, 3/04/02, 3/05/02, 3/06/02, 3/7/02, 3/10/02,3/11/02, 3/12/02, 3/13/02, 3/14/02, 3/15/02, 3/18/02, 3/19/02, 3/20/02, 3/21/02, 3/22/02, 3/25/02, 3/26/02, 3/28/02, 3/30/02 4/1/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, 4/4/02, 4/6/02, 4/8/02, 4/9/02, 4/10/02, 4/11/02, 4/13/02, 4/15/02, 4/16/02, 4/17/02, 4/18/02, 4/20/02, 4/22/02, 4/23/02,4/24/02,4/25/02, 4/26/02, 4/27/02, 4/29/02, 4/30/02 5/01/02, 5/2/02, 5/4/02, 5/6/02, 5/07/02, 5/8/02, 5/09/02, 5/10/02, 5/13/02, 5/14/02, 5/15/02, 5/16/02, 5/17/02, 5/20/02, 5/21/02, 5/22/02, 5/23/02, 5/24/02, 5/28/02, 5/29/02, 5/30/02 6/01/02, 6/3/02, 6/4/02, 6/5/02, 6/6/02, 6/7/02, 6/10/02, 6/11/02, 6/12/02, 6/13/02, 6/14/02, 6/17/02, 6/18/02, 6/19/02, 6/20/02, 6/22/02, 6/24/02, 6/25/02, 6/26/02, 6/27/02, 6/30/02 7/1/02, 7/4/02, 7/5/02, 7/11/02, 7/14/02, 7/15/02, 7/16/02, 7/17/02, 7/18/02, 7/19/02, 7/22/02, 7/23/02, 7/24/02, 7/25/02, 7/27/02, 7/29/02, 7/30/02 8/1/02, 8/3/02, 8/5/02, 8/6/02, 8/7/02, 8/8/02, 8/10/02
|
The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished weeknights by
8:30PM Happy Acres, Florida Time The American Academy of Stock Proctology and Is your subscription up for renewal? If you want to renew, do nothing, unless your credit card has expired. Please be sure your credit card info is current. If your credit card has expired, you must enter the new expiration date in your Paypal account in order for your subscription to be processed. If you subscribed via Paypal, your subscription will be renewed for one year on the 90 day anniversary of your sign-up and your credit card will be charged. If you want to cancel, use the button at the bottom of the page. This applies only if you subscribed through Paypal. Mailed-in subscriptions are for 1 year. If you subscribed by prior contribution, I will send you a notice before your subscription expires. If you have any questions, see the subscription page and FAQ's. If you can't find the answer, email me. PM Update 8/13/02 1:00 PM Terms and methodology The market gave us an unpleasant surprise here. Stronger than dirt, you might say. The initial selloff didn't come close to reaching the downside cmaps, and the upside was stronger than Doc would have liked. Score bulls 1, bears 0. But is this a case of buy the rumor? Looks like the flat thing we normally see leading up to the announcement has begun. An intraday cycle low was due at 12:30 We see higher cmaps, with an intraday cycle high due after the meeting ideally at 3:30. The 8 day cycle high is due today. Upside cmaps, already met, can be retested. There's a possibility of a downturn after the announcement. But until the market settles down after the announcement, this is whistling Dixie. Doc does not make trading recommendations. This update reports intraday time cycle estimates and centered moving average projections based on the Hurst cycle analysis method. Doc assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or inaccuracy of these estimates and projections. The market may or may not meet these projections. New stoolies should thoroughly familiarize themselves with the methodology before trading based on this method. There is no free lunch. Those who do not have the time or inclination to develop a trading strategy based on testing and research should not trade. Trade at your own risk.
AM Update 8/13/02 9:15 AM Terms and methodology In spite of weakness in the fucutures, Doc expects a narrow range, with lots of little ups and downs until the circus barker appears at 2:15. The intra day cycle picture is mucky, but downside pressure could last until 12:30 or so, with the hopers coming in as the 5 hour cycle turns up after that. The 5 and 8 day cycles are in conflicting positions, and it's too soon to tell which is dominant. The 8 day cycle should top out today, but the 5 day cycle is in a bottom phase. Doc has put the 5 day cycle data on the table. If they sell off after the announcement, look for two more days of downside, and perhaps the end of the rally. If it's up, the 5 day cycle rules to the upside for two more days, and it's six more weeks of winter for bears. Doc does not make trading recommendations. This update reports intraday time cycle estimates and centered moving average projections based on the Hurst cycle analysis method. Doc assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or inaccuracy of these estimates and projections. The market may or may not meet these projections. New stoolies should thoroughly familiarize themselves with the methodology before trading based on this method. There is no free lunch. Those who do not have the time or inclination to develop a trading strategy based on testing and research should not trade. Trade at your own risk.
Stormy Weather for Bears? (8/12/02) Doc hates to say it, stool fans, but unless we get a big downside surprise Tuesday, the market looks higher for the next week or two. Reading and listening to the cautious comments of the poodits, it looks like many portfolio sphincters holding back. They still have some of the cash they raised in July, and they'll get itchy with it if this thing holds together after the Feed announcement. For now, the upside potential looks like another 4 to 6% over the next couple of weeks. Since it's so early in the cycle, that could get worse from our standpoint. The cmaps are not coming down, and momo indicators continue to gradually strengthen. The market is in a 10-13 week cycle up phase, and it's looking increasingly likely that the 6 month cycle has turned the corner too. What isn't clear still, is the shape of the up phase. The degree to which the market broke downside channels at the low, (more than September) and the strength of the initial recoil, means that a sideways up phase may be too much for bears to hope for. The slope may very well turn positive, just like last fall. There is still a residual core of hopers out there. Maybe a 30 month bear market just isn't enough to wipe out all the optimism that builds up in a twenty year bull market. Apparently plenty of hopers are still a few willing to recommit. The bear will suck them in again, and smash 'em down later. How much later? Everything hinges on Tuesday's action. The short and intermediate bear case needs a big down day, in Doc's view. If we don't get it, batten down the hatches. The Wall Street bully boys and the double down hopers may be in control for at least a few more weeks. The Feed took no action today on the heels of Friday's $1 billion weekend matched sale purchase. The result was a net add of $1 billion. There are no expirations on Tuesday. The M's may be growing, but not
because Al's been Feeding. Al has stopped the growth of Feed holdings dead
in its tracks over the last two months. (Is there a message there. Once
that growth stopped, Mr. Market took a dump.) There are forces which drive
monetary growth other than the Feed, as Doc repeatedly stresses in the Thursday
review of the Feed's weekly data. Doug
Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin is required reading along these lines
as well. The recent tightening
is visible in the Slow Feedometer. Still, there's enough
excess there now to drive prices up for awhile yet, as cycles have turned favorable.
Sellers are hibernating for now.
Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) and Sentiment
All cycles from 4 weeks to 6 months still appear to be in gear to the upside. The 8 day cycle on the hourly charts looked like it turned down Monday, but that's a slim straw to draw hope from. This doesn't mean the up phase has to last half the six months. It could, but at this point it's impossible to say. For now it looks like the slope will be only mildly positive, unless we see a tremendous breakout this week. The VIX rose to 40.46. In retrospect, the late July spike looks like a good low for the 6 month cycle. Further confirmation will come when the channel begins to turn sideways. The fact that the VIX is still near 40 suggests significant levels of fear. Looking at the chart, a move into the mid 30s may occur before a short cycle top. The 17 and 29 day rate of
change indicators which represent the 6-7 and 10-13 week cycles are
strengthening. The "17" is now above the zero line. If that's
joined by the "29" the move
could be explosive, but we need not worry about that for at least a few
days. Cmaps now point to highs of 950-60 in the next couple of
weeks. These projections are not carved in stone and
could shift either way. The 6 month cycle oscillator is starting to turn up. The trading stoolicator is strengthening. The steepening upturn in those indicators is not a good sign for bears. The short cycle oscillator
remains in a topping zone, but in the
initial stage of the 6 month cycle up phase, it can stay high for days. Don't
put too much faith in the overbought position of that indicator. Shorting
this market, on anything other than an intraday scalp with protection,
could still be hazardous to your health. SPX remains stuck at the 910
fiber nacho level. If it gets through it's clear sailing to 930-40. The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 8/12/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasgap Charts The Nas marked time Monday as it bumped up against downtrending cycle channel projections. The 6 month cycle oscillator is starting to confirm the turn and the upturns in shorter oscillators strengthened a bit. Unless this drops a load Tuesday, the market is going higher.
The 10-13 week cycle oscillator moved higher. Cmaps upticked to the 1370
area for the 4 through 10-13 week cycles. It is early
and those will change, but so far the direction ahs not been the one bears
like to see. The 6 month cycle downside cmap has moved up to 1150. That hasn't
been met, and it may not be, at least on this go round. The rally would
need to immediately fail. If Nasty holds up on Tuesday, Doc would not
want to be short. Cash is a position from which re-entry is possible.
That's not usually the case if you hold a position that's going against
you.
1328-45 is an area of heavy fiber nacho reflux activity. But first it
still has
to get through 1310. Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 8/12/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn Golden Stool The 4 week cycle cmap on
HUI dropped sharply to 128 Monday, with the cycle high due this week. The
13 day cycle cmap now stands at 122. The 10-12 month cycle oscillator can be
expected to lag the price turn. We want to see it begin to flatten in the
area of the zero line then gradually turn up. If we see a
positive crossover above the zero line, gold stocks are in for an extended
and powerful advance. That turn needs to start soon, or the picture starts
to get a little cloudier. AM Edition Features (Previous) These features are in morning edition, published around 9 AM ET US, or the Saturday Weak End Edition, published, uh, let's see, Saturday! Stoolonomics- Economy
stays weak but...(See next chart). Inflation doesn't. Yesterday's action looks
like an exhaustion gap but we can't assume a reversal until the momentum
indicators uptick. Uncle Buck's Illness The
intermediate cycle oscillator is telling us that Buck's miracle recovery
may soon be over. The 10-12 month cycle is in a swup with support at 105.
Stocks and Bucky have moved together, so this is the first sign that the
bear case for stocks is alive. Aerospace-
Want to take off, but can't get escape velocity. Biodrech- Up
phase should pull back as resistance is tested.. Bonkers-
Bumping head on resistance, should fall back. Consumer
Sucter- Momo meets resistance. Find out today who wins. Drugs- Make
feel good fast, but not last. Retail can't
get no tail, again. Wall Street
still has HMO love affair. Homebubblers-
Up phase has no fizz. Lights out soon? Energy-
building for a pop, or flop?. Small crap-
Peeking around the corner. Can't see much. Tech Review-
Dirty SOX still lying on the floor. Soft-Where? Internuts-
Up phase is a no show. Nutworkers-
No nuts. May starve this winter. Telecoms-
The X-TC. True. Prepare for mass funeral. Citicrap-
Recovery just a swup. CSCO- Up
equals swup too. Fannie-
Resistance at 75, may stop swup. GE- Can
resistance at 32 stop General's advance? IBM-Swup
should face trouble here. Mr. Bill- No
jail breakout yet. Wall, at 49,
can't get it up. See you in Intraday Stool. Dr. Stepan N. Stool Share your thoughts on the Stool Pigeons Wire.
Renewals Welcome, and thank you for subscribing to the Anals of Stock Proctology. Your trial subscription will run for 90 days. At the end of that period your subscription will renew automatically, unless you cancel. If you wish to cancel your subscription use the button below. If you want to renew your subscription do nothing. Your subscription will renew and your credit card or Paypal bank account will be charged. If you want to renew, be sure your credit card information in your Paypal account is current. Paypal will not renew your subscription if the card has expired! Again, thanks for subscribing!
Explanation of Intraday Commentary-Build charts at http://www.livecharts.com. For custom time bars insert a comma after symbol and number of minutes, e.g. compx,90. This will give you a bar chart of the Nas with 90 minutes per bar. The one day cycle is usually most clear with 8 minute bars and 26/18 stochastics. It varies from day to day. Sometimes 6 minutes works best. Experiment to find the best fit for your trading style, and the market's dominant frequency at the time. The goal here is primarily to monitor the condition of the 8 and 13 day cycles. I typically use 90 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics for the 13 day cycle proxy on the indices during regular trading hours. Other cycles use 26/18 stochastics with the following: 8 days- 60 minute bars On the 24 hour futures charts, use a time per bar approximately 3 to 4 times the above number of minutes, to represent the cycles listed above. ABBREVIATIONS: cma: centered moving average |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
. (Sorry about the bull.)
You've seen the software advertised on TV. 
![[Most Recent HUI from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_hui_en_2.gif)
![[Most Recent XAU from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_sp500_en_2.gif)
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_2.gif)
