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Pre FOMC Breakout 3/21/23


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Posted

The ES, 24 hour S&P futures have broken out again here in the pre market. They're about 7 points above the peak set two days ago. OK, breakout is too strong a word, but the higher high confirms the uptrend and the validity of the conventional measured move price target. That target is 4035 +/- based on Thursday's breakout from a nice 5 day base. A 2-3 day cycle projection points to 4025.

First they need to clear indicated resistance around 3975-80, and then around 4005 later this morning. The hourly cycle indicators look bullish, so the odds are good that the first level will be broken and the second reached today. 

In case of a miracle rollover, nothing meaningful would happen unless they broke 3940. Massive Fed Monetary Injection Changed the Technical Picture March 20, 2023

-lf2w

The Fed's pattern has been to set the Fed Funds rate by catching up with the 13 week bill rate at each FOMC circus. The 13 week bill has gyrated wildly over the past week. It was actually below Fed funds on Friday, but it's now 21 bp above it. If it stays there, the Fed would have to go up a quarter to stay even. If they don't then they are really, really sceert. How to Play When Fed Changes the Game, Not Just the Rules March 19, 2023

-lf3s

Talk about gyrating wildly, the 10 year Treasury yield has popped back up a little after getting slaughtered in a massive buying panic last week. It has reached a trend inflection point at 3.54. What it does here should give us a signal as to how the market will proceed from here. How to Play When Fed Changes the Game, Not Just the Rules March 19, 2023

-lf72

Conversely, gold has made an ugly top pattern on its hourly chart. An hourly close below 1966 would have a conventional measured move implication of around 1930-35. Not good years. But if they don't break down, and subsequently clear 1989, the outlook would brighten. Gold Works On High Base March 14, 2023

-lf98

Safehaven Coin has a conventional measured move target of around 34,000 on the daily chart. Meh. 28,500-29,000 is heavy resistance, so we'll see. 

-lfaa

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Posted

I guess Musk is calling for a half point rate cut and now so will 50 million of his fans. Well everybody is for rate cuts. Nobody is against ease. It's just the calls are going to get a lot louder probably.

Posted

Green eveywhere, dollar and gold sold.

Its all good. Move along. The crisis is gone. Would be like +5% on SPX if FOMC would say that we are done with rates rise.

 

Posted

I need to be more aggressive about locking them right away but I forget in my old age. 

Posted

The FED is gonna do something idiotic tomorrow.

Something like „we raise by 50 and here are another 5 Trillion we pump into Goldilocks Sucks just to be safe for any possible outcome“.

Posted
43 minutes ago, fxfox said:

The FED is gonna do something idiotic tomorrow.

Something like „we raise by 50 

Unlikely. They have never gotten ahead of the 13 week bill. Play catchup every meeting. It's still just 20 bp above FF. 

Posted

Note on the last hourly chart I posted above the Bearish Engulfing candle. Don't know if that means anything on an hourly basis. 

Posted
1 hour ago, DrStool said:

Unlikely. They have never gotten ahead of the 13 week bill. Play catchup every meeting. It's still just 20 bp above FF. 

Right. They will do 0.25, with an outside chance of doing 0.00.

Maybe announce another alphabet soup „program“ and/or dovish talk.

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