DrStool Posted March 21, 2023 Report Posted March 21, 2023 The ES, 24 hour S&P futures have broken out again here in the pre market. They're about 7 points above the peak set two days ago. OK, breakout is too strong a word, but the higher high confirms the uptrend and the validity of the conventional measured move price target. That target is 4035 +/- based on Thursday's breakout from a nice 5 day base. A 2-3 day cycle projection points to 4025. First they need to clear indicated resistance around 3975-80, and then around 4005 later this morning. The hourly cycle indicators look bullish, so the odds are good that the first level will be broken and the second reached today. In case of a miracle rollover, nothing meaningful would happen unless they broke 3940. Massive Fed Monetary Injection Changed the Technical Picture March 20, 2023 The Fed's pattern has been to set the Fed Funds rate by catching up with the 13 week bill rate at each FOMC circus. The 13 week bill has gyrated wildly over the past week. It was actually below Fed funds on Friday, but it's now 21 bp above it. If it stays there, the Fed would have to go up a quarter to stay even. If they don't then they are really, really sceert. How to Play When Fed Changes the Game, Not Just the Rules March 19, 2023 Talk about gyrating wildly, the 10 year Treasury yield has popped back up a little after getting slaughtered in a massive buying panic last week. It has reached a trend inflection point at 3.54. What it does here should give us a signal as to how the market will proceed from here. How to Play When Fed Changes the Game, Not Just the Rules March 19, 2023 Conversely, gold has made an ugly top pattern on its hourly chart. An hourly close below 1966 would have a conventional measured move implication of around 1930-35. Not good years. But if they don't break down, and subsequently clear 1989, the outlook would brighten. Gold Works On High Base March 14, 2023 Safehaven Coin has a conventional measured move target of around 34,000 on the daily chart. Meh. 28,500-29,000 is heavy resistance, so we'll see. For moron the markets, see: Massive Fed Monetary Injection Changed the Technical Picture March 20, 2023 How to Play When Fed Changes the Game, Not Just the Rules March 19, 2023 Gold Works On High Base March 14, 2023 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Who Wants to Go Short Here! March 13, 2023 Bailout or Not, Stock Traders Are Should Give the Fed, Treasury, and FDIC the Finger March 13, 2023 Systemic Meltdown Under Way As Dead Bodies Finally Start Surfacing March 12, 2023 February Withholding Taxes Say – Fade the Jobs Report! March 2, 2023 Here’s Why There Will Never Be Bull Markets Until This One Thing Happens February 26, 2023 You Can Now Follow the Diabolical Usual Suspects February 16, 2023 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.
Jorma Posted March 21, 2023 Report Posted March 21, 2023 I guess Musk is calling for a half point rate cut and now so will 50 million of his fans. Well everybody is for rate cuts. Nobody is against ease. It's just the calls are going to get a lot louder probably.
SiP Posted March 21, 2023 Report Posted March 21, 2023 Green eveywhere, dollar and gold sold. Its all good. Move along. The crisis is gone. Would be like +5% on SPX if FOMC would say that we are done with rates rise.
DrStool Posted March 21, 2023 Author Report Posted March 21, 2023 Seems we got lost in an old thread again.
DrStool Posted March 21, 2023 Author Report Posted March 21, 2023 I need to be more aggressive about locking them right away but I forget in my old age.
fxfox Posted March 21, 2023 Report Posted March 21, 2023 The FED is gonna do something idiotic tomorrow. Something like „we raise by 50 and here are another 5 Trillion we pump into Goldilocks Sucks just to be safe for any possible outcome“.
DrStool Posted March 21, 2023 Author Report Posted March 21, 2023 43 minutes ago, fxfox said: The FED is gonna do something idiotic tomorrow. Something like „we raise by 50 Unlikely. They have never gotten ahead of the 13 week bill. Play catchup every meeting. It's still just 20 bp above FF.
Jimi Posted March 21, 2023 Report Posted March 21, 2023 Just wondering aloud.... How does one reconcile the expected response to a credit event by Fed/Treasury when at the same time, a GOP-controlled House pursues a debt-ceiling fight? I mean... do we all remember the first TARP vote? And how it failed? https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4622819/house-vote-wall-street-bailout-failed-205-228 Hard to imagine how messy it could get.
DrStool Posted March 21, 2023 Author Report Posted March 21, 2023 Note on the last hourly chart I posted above the Bearish Engulfing candle. Don't know if that means anything on an hourly basis.
DrStool Posted March 21, 2023 Author Report Posted March 21, 2023 Here it is again. The hourly indicators remain boolish.
fxfox Posted March 21, 2023 Report Posted March 21, 2023 1 hour ago, DrStool said: Unlikely. They have never gotten ahead of the 13 week bill. Play catchup every meeting. It's still just 20 bp above FF. Right. They will do 0.25, with an outside chance of doing 0.00. Maybe announce another alphabet soup „program“ and/or dovish talk.
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