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Everything posted by Jimi

  1. This could be a huge hit in Poland. Older American Jew with a decades-established mastery of American capital markets moves into a Warsaw penthouse to explore the tragic consequences of WWII for his ancestors; lives next door to a traditional Catholic family/patriarch is ex-union leader that made fortune after the fall of the Warsaw Pact, but is impulsively suspicious because he was targeted by the ancien regime; family's two kids - teenager & college student - represent the crossover between cultures. Show is half in Polish half in English, with older American constantly mispronouncing polish phrases to hilarious effect. Antics ensue.... Spinoff eventually sees the older Polish daughter attend Temple University in Phlly to study finance (much to her parents' horror); becomes rabid Eagles fan; learns to hate the Mets... but has to move to NYC in the final episode for a job on Wall Street.
  2. You know what’s wonderfully unfamiliar & welcome about the collapse of Evergrande? It helps habituate investors/speculators to the notion that yuan-denominated risk isn’t entirely backstopped. And that’s healthy. Especially in comparison to the loss-limit policies of QE since the GFC, which have short-circuited notions of risk & return among dollar-denominated assets/speculators.
  3. I miss online poker. I loved tournament play. I was Kondratieff on Full Tilt: https://www.sharkscope.com/#Player-Statistics//networks/FullTilt (Closed)/players/Kondratieff?filter=Entrants:30~*
  4. NFP steps up to the plate. Here comes the pitch. High fastball. Swing, and a miss.
  5. I think the idea is to leave a bunch of military equipment with only regional reach. Sort of a big middle finger to Pakistan. But that ascribes a lot of intentionality to what otherwise appeared as pants-around-ankles reactive policy.
  6. If you securitize that Polish food, it would qualify as a sensibly-priced security.
  7. Maybe I'm older & wiser. Or, maybe I'm just sour & angrier. But today feels even more insane than March 2000. I mean, back then, at least you could participate in "The Internet changes everything!" thesis. Sure, "Bitcoin fixes that!" seems this cycle's specific "Internet changes everything!" received wisdom analogy. But there remained pockets of sanity back in March 2000: for example, you could still earn 6.39% in 10-year Treasuries the date the NASDAQ peaked. I ask: what is the comparable security today that offers any sensible return prospect at these prices?
  8. OMG. I knew the Mish thing would bait Doc. And he did not disappoint. Bravo, to both baiter & baitee!
  9. It's remarkable how the present value of discounted future cash flows can change on a dime. Super efficienty. Which is to say, U.S. capitalism has become a worthless shitshow of marketing & pumping securities by Wall Street in cahoots with the Fed & Treasury without any reference to fundamental value. It wasn't always the case that the public purse wasn't openly a tool of the plutocrats... I mean, pre-Greenspan, at least "appearances" were maintained. And Volcker didn't hesitate to bust balls as he saw necessary... FOR THE GREATER PUBLIC INTEREST. How long does Wile. E. Coyote get to hang suspended over the vast abyss below before this crapshitcesspollpsycho fleece-machine throws its rod and grinds to a halt? I enjoy gardening. The whole world can go to hell: I will putter endlessly in my vast garden until I die.
  10. Friends of my parents had a condo in Villefranche - have spent a modest amount of time there. I'm a fan.
  11. Any thought of settling instead in Warsaw & not Nice?
  12. Remote-Working Prospects + SF is a Needle/Shit-Infested Cesspool = Young Rich Families Moving to the 'burbs. They have deep pockets and wanted space: that dynamic drove demand around us to escalating heights for months & months. FWIW, however, it feels to me like the real estate market has peaked. Two months ago, my wife & a college pal who lives nearby in the same zip code & I would play "Guess the Closing Price" on attractive Redfin listings. My rule was to add $500K to asking, which was pretty close to reality. Now, you're seeing aggressively-priced houses sitting longer, and in some cases, not moving. What's even more insane is the pricing of desert property out near Joshua Tree, a market I have watched religiously with purchase-intent for 20 years. I mean... desert shrub land without water or utilities used to be highly illiquid & cheap out there. Now... $151K (originally offered at $99K) will buy you this: https://www.redfin.com/CA/Landers/2360-Sand-Dr-92285/home/3858001
  13. Boys in mullets. Girls in leggings. Collars up. Everyone humming Simple Minds....
  14. Name one damned thing at this juncture in our reality that isn't just a straight up troll.
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