Jimi

I believe this remains the earliest document on which Warren attested with her signature to being "American Indian." It dates to 1986. My mom said she believed my uncle/her brother's physical appearance suggested our family had Native American ancestry. As the ca. 2012 article from which I took the document above (and the link for which I provide below) observes... No. They are not. As I know from my own. A year before Warren wrote that her race was "American Indian" on the document above, I heard word of a high school classmate who was said to have checked "American Indian" on her college applications. It was done cynically, and instead of attending Berkeley, she attended Columbia. I can't assert cause & effect between the alleged checked box and her educational options. Back when Warren's representations began, and when my classmate allegedly did what she did, this claim certainly conferred Affirmative Action program advantage. https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/post/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-controversy-over-elizabeth-warrens-claimed-native-american-heritage/2012/09/27/d0b7f568-08a5-11e2-a10c-fa5a255a9258_blog.html Ten years is a long time to have yourself listed as "Minority" in a Directory of Faculty. There is plenty of deniability on Warren's part, and it is misfortunate that the public figure who made greatest political hay about this all is a detestable fraudster from Queens. But I don't care what deniability she might successfully bring to the table. I followed her story closely, because the basis of her claim seemed as flimsy & familiar as one I might have made at a time when I and others understood it to confer advantage. So... if I call Warren "a liar," I'm comfortable with the charge. Does any of that detract from notable stuff she did, some alluded to in the article? Not in any way - I remember watching her on CSPAN after the GFC and before she entered politics and being extremely impressed. I knew who she was before she ran for Senate. But I'll go further: I think she was a self-serving cynical fucking liar when she made her claim... which isn't that big a surprise, since she ended up being a politician, and "self-serving cynical fucking liar" is sort of a prerequisite. For men & women alike.

Awesome... bees are fantastic. My wife & I work from home and go out and visit the bees everyday - sometimes several times a day. Our first colony didn't survive our first winter - we were figuring it out & they were ravaged by mites. But we added a second hive & I think we mastered mite-control last spring & summer - both colonies (one Italians, one Russians) survived and are thriving. We harvested after winter and will harvest again in late July, and then let them rebuild their honey stores ahead of winter. We buy 4oz & 8oz mason jars and give most of it away - people love it. For giggles, we are going to enter some jars into county fairs this year - Marin, Alameda, Orange County.

https://www.theinstitutionalriskanal cyst.com/post/the-false-narrative-on-first-republic-bank

Today, asking was lowered $60K. https://www.redfin.com/CA/Joshua-Tree/61713-Terrace-Dr-92252/home/3834939#marketing-remarks-scroll 11/2022 - Listed at $450K 03/2023 - Cut to $399K Today - Cut to $339K 08/2021 - Transacted for $340K ($40K over $300K list....) So, seller now is just looking to get out what they paid for two years ago. 09/2003 - Transacted for $75K Triple that 2003 transaction and you are still starting with a "2"... not a "3".... Having paid $40K over already excessive list, this seems like a candidate for keys being sent back to the bank.

We maintain two hives constituting I’d guess 80,000 bees in our backyard. Best damned honey ever. Tried to catch a wild swarm last week to add a third. Become a beekeeper.

The impact on the city’s budget is significant, too: Office-based industries account for nearly three quarters of the city’s gross domestic product. After years of surpluses, the government now forecasts a $780 million deficit in the upcoming two fiscal years — roughly a 6 percent cut in its general fund, according to the mayor’s office. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/30/us/san-francisco-whole-foods-crime-economy.html comments section is interesting with first hand accounts.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/office-conversion-housing-17769370.php https://abc7news.com/downtown-san-francisco-offices-into-housing-sf-buildings/13086443/

Saw an interview or read something at some point in the past 12 months about an outfit repositioning an SF office building for condos. It was really interesting to learn how completely insanely complicated the project was. I remember elevators being one issue: locationally, you might put them somewhere different in the core for an office floor than a condo floor. Then there was utilities - electrical & plumbing has to be run fresh in ways never previously contemplated. Then there's fire escapes: an office may devote one side of the building for escape, but that doesn't necessarily work for a condo if the resulting escapes are behind someone's locked door. It was very eye-opening.

You've made me think differently about Yellen.

Had to look up which building in downtown SF was now valued at under $10m. Cheaper than this home across town.... https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Francisco/2880-Green-St-94123/home/1020891

I'm not personally familiar with the squalor into which NYC fell in the 1970s & 80s. But the city became notorious for crime & murder. On a related note, in 1993 residents voted in the first Republican as Mayor more or less since WWII. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mayors_of_New_York_City Conceding for argument's sake that all the policy goals pursued in San Francisco are noble & pure, it seems apparent on my aperiodic visits that the execution of that policy has been, to put it generously... "spotty." In some ways, the situation is not as bad as it is caricatured by rightwing media, which otherwise loves demonizing the place; but it is also far worse than those running the city and their starry-eyed supporters will admit. Quality of life there is down. I've walked my younger son past junkies shooting up on our way back from his doctor's appointment far afield from the Tenderloin or downtown. I've walked down long BART corridors at the Civic Center station lined with junkies, some cooking & others shooting. For its part, San Francisco established itself as a safe-zone on the eve of an opioid wave. I've watched youtube interviews of addicts from other parts of the country who moved to SF because they knew they could get their fix and not get hassled - acknowledging that if they shot up in public back home the way they can on Market Street, they'd go straight to prison. As a result.... https://www.beatiteap.com/san-francisco-drug-addicts-outnumber-students/ If you've ever known any addict of anything, you know solutions are not simple. Supply of affordable housing is another component that has rendered urban California less attractive. With recession looming, the situation seems poised to get worse before it gets better. But I would say much like NYC in the 1970 & 80s: only the foolhardy bet against San Francisco. And if its denizens surprise the nation eventually by voting in a Republican mayor, I'd buy up all the possible real estate I could manage.

https://www.loopnet.com/Listing/25-Taylor-St-San-Francisco-CA/24293206/

Bitcoin supply is designed to be capped at 21 million. This finite-supply imposes a scarcity that affords it great intrinsic value that many don't recognize. One should be buying bitcoin today because of that. Someday, Giant Meteor will slam into the planet, destroying human civilization in its entirety. Such eventuality imposes a finite-supply on equities that afford great intrinsic value that many don't recognize. One should be buying equities today because of that.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Yucca-Valley/57288-Farrelo-Rd-92284/home/3823821#marketing-remarks-scroll Price cut today from $695K to... $694K. LOLOLOL... a thousand bucks to refresh it on the MLS. Transacted: 04/2018 for $273K 05/2016 for $251K 10/2012 for $215K 09/2007 for $317K <== "NINJA" era.....

Love these CRE reports.

There are many.... https://www.redfin.com/CA/Yucca-Valley/9255-Fortuna-Ave-92284/home/3818004#marketing-remarks-scroll Asking today: $749K. Transacted: 11/2021 for $485K

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Joshua-Tree/7070-Stoney-Crest-Dr-92252/unit-1-2/home/3835174 Asking: $900K Transacted: 09/2018: $550K 09/2014: $280K Do you see the trend?

So... you've hit the nail on the head. Having lived out there, I can assure you that from May through October, you probably don't want to live out there. So, it's traditionally been a community of second-homes for snowbirds or spring/fall. There is a Marine Base nearby, and a community college, but that's it apart from tourism associated with Joshua Tree National Park. Which begs the question: where should that $749K listing actually clear in an environment with real economics and real financing costs? I'm not sure... but the price history is relevant for that question. Decent article on the mania/bubble that erupted there: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/07/travel/joshua-tree-california-airbnb.html If I win the lottery, I'm buying this place which I've always coveted: https://www.redfin.com/CA/Joshua-Tree/Uphill-Rd-92252/home/168909881

Crypto is a store of... insanity.

If it's potfarms to the north of me, it's now VRBOs to my beloved desert-south. I think both were symptomatic of loose money & circumstance. Let me provide a recent example for the latter. Look at this listing: https://www.redfin.com/CA/Yucca-Valley/3353-Sage-Ave-92284/home/3825815 The price history here is instructive. Asking: $749K Prior Transactions: 12/2020 = $525K 01/2015 = $274K 08/2003 = $56K 04/2000 = $33.5K I've seen this sort of thing repeatedly. Consider that seller wants $225K for the privilege of a 28-month holding period. The pitch is that it's a great VRBO... but you better be careful with modeling that forward, since it benefitted from an extended period of work-from-home alternatives (within 2-hour drive of downtown LA/10 million inhabitants) and the GMTFO-COVID cooped-up period when travel-by-car was easier, and travel abroad unavailable. Meanwhile, anyone want to doubt that the 12/2020 purchase was done with something other than a floating rate, to keep that part of the cost-structure down? And that it has subsequently turned on them? Because I ask myself, "If I had such a successful, professionally-managed cash-flow positive VRBO, why would I be looking to unload it?" Because they don't: the VRBO empires were built on cheap financing and unusual circumstances, both tied to the pandemic. And it's getting unwound. I'll post more of these in the days/weeks ahead.

That song & scene is fantastic. Country Joe lives somewhere 'round these parts. Never encountered him.

Didjya ever notice that "KRE" is a lot like "CRE"?

"Gimme a K!" "Kayyyy!!" "Gimme an R!" "Arrrrrrr!!" "Gimme an E!" "Eeeeee!!" "What's that spell?!" "Die Pig, Die!" "What's that spell?!" "Die Pig, Die!" "What's that spell?!" "Die Pig, Die!"

It's also baseball season. My older son is playing JV and my younger one still little league. So, we run around watching youth baseball all the time, which is pretty much the most meaningful thing in the whole-wide world.