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Everything posted by DrStool

  1. BTC is sitting on the toilet getting ready to take a dump.
  2. The Fed stress tests assumed -55% in stocks 40% in CRE, and the Fed says that the banks would still have adequate capital. First of all, it means that it thinks it can let that happen. Second of all, it's wrong. The dominoes will start falling well before those parameters are hit.
  3. Stocks Are Even More “Dover Sole” Versus Liquidity
  4. I'm really surprised that that rally didn't stick at all. I thought a little pullback, then more upside. WRONG. Maybe Tamara?
  5. Oh is this going to end badly. Chasing the last decade's winning horse.
  6. I'm a little bummed that the market is selling off here. Last short on my chart pick list got stopped out yesterday. Bummer. Train may be leaving the station without us. I may need to interrupt this program for a special bulletin, but first gotta write a report.
  7. Or watching the US become a fascist theocracy. Now that the Supreme Court has legalized school prayer, I hope that the Satanists demand equal time. H/t to Seth Abramson for that idea.
  8. Minimal so far. But keep in mind that this is a continuum. The reduction in QE that began 2 years ago was actually the beginning of QT. Any reduction in printing is tightening. So they've just been gradually ratcheting up the pressure every few months. It's a frog slowly boiling on the street in the sun. First it just gets sleepy. Then it's dead. Kind of like human life, come to think of it.
  9. The market benefitted from exceptionally light supply in June.
  10. But gonna shut down and take a nap so as not to use up my battree.
  11. I'm sending this message on battery and my phone as a hotspot. Ain't technology grand.
  12. Second power outage of the day on this stormy day here in Nice. First heavy rain in the 5 months I have lived here.
  13. Just imagine all the investors who can't wait for their shares to be diluted and who are lined up to buy more bank bonds. Woowoo.
  14. Been warning about this. Fed requires some banks to raise capital reserves New Liquidity Trader report later today.
  15. I don't think it's productive to dream of what internal constraints the Fed may or may not have. They have enough problems with what's going on outside their walls. The markets will force a policy change way before the Fed faces any such possible constraints. Personally, for practical purposes, I don't think there are any.
  16. They can just print it and deposit it in the accounts of the payees, whoever holds deposits or RRPs at the Fed. It would be an offset to QT, which will end by August anyway. 😆
  17. Double top with negative divergence here. In a bear market, might mean something
  18. I guessed right yesterday that the 5 day cycle down phase would go sideways. Now we await its conclusion and the next pop in this rally. It might come today. It might come tomorrow. It looks good for at least 3965. But there's a massive wall of supply above that from 3965 to 3995 on the ES, S&P 24 hour fuguetures. Of course, the best case from a bear perspective would be a double top here and a rollover. There's a big Treasury coupon settlement on Thursday that will suck cash out of the market system, so I wouldn't rule it out. Even if a minor breakout happens today, that wall of supply, and the Treasury settlement should lead to a downdraft at the end of the week. Bond traders are already getting a whiff of what's to come. Look at how that uptrend channel held on the 10 year yield. It's going much higher from here. Nothing new to report on the crapto front. BTC is just hanging out in consolidation waiting for the next leg down. Massive resistance in the 21-22k range is keeping it from rallying. The consolidation is likely to continue for days or weeks, but ultimately BTC should head for its 1 year cycle projection of 9-12K and its long term measured move target of 5000 below zero. On the currency front, the EUR/USD has an inflection point at 1.06. The cycle oscillator setup is bullish for the euro. But it will only be so if ECB policy gets tighter, more in line with the Fed's extreme tightness. As long as the imbalance between tighter Fed policy and less tight ECB policy continues, I don't expect euro rallies to amount to much. Gold is just a bore. But if it holds above 1790 for a couple more weeks it could go from bore to buy. I'll have more on that tomorrow. Follow how pre-determined and known liquidity flows drive stock and bond prices here . I will show you and tell you exactly how the major forces of macro liquidity move not just the bond market, but stocks as well. Liquidity analysis sets the context for technical analysis. It helps us to narrow the focus of our chart reading to the outcomes that are most likely, given the circumstances. To better understand the big picture right now so that you can take the correct action when the time is right, check out the following: Bulls Have Hope This Week, Bears Wary of Pump June 27, 2022 The Spike Is Here, So Here’s What to Expect June 26, 2022 We Knew QT Would Be Devastating, But You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet June 21, 2022 Is There Life on Mars, or in the Precious Metals? June 22, 2022 Dealers Assume the Position, as 75 BPs Coming Wednesday June 13, 2022 The US Economy, Including Jobs, Collapsed in May June 2, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.
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