DrStool

A big overnight selloff has been reversed in the early morning hours, half way through the European trading day, and 2 hours before NY opens. The ES 24 hour S&P futures have returned from a knife plunge, back to unchanged since the NY close. The selloff resulted in a 3 day cycle low. It also broke the potential positive divergence in hourly oscillators. While they've since turned upward, the lack of a positive divergence usually means at least a test of the low, or lower low ahead before a tradable low. So I would be on the lookout for that late today or Monday. A test of strength is dead ahead with a resistance convergence on the hourly chart in the 8-9 AM hour at 5005. If they clear that, then it should be onward and upward. If they turn tail at that point, look for that test of the low. One More Rally To Go For moron the markets, see: Warning Signs Abound, But Ignore Them for Now April 16, 2024 Swing Trade Screen Picks – List Shrinks With Good Profits April 15, 2024 No More Downside April 15, 2024 Back to the Gold Old Days 4/9/24 April 9, 2024 March Withholding Tax Collections Actually Stunk April 5, 2024 Banking Data Says This Is Last Hurrah for Stocks April 3, 2024 The End Is Not Nigh March 26, 2024 Markets Create Money, Money Talks, Markets Listen Etc. March 12, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.

Interesting that for the past few days there have been almost no final triggered signals on either side.

The market was down 2%. This list was down 4.8%. Since it was a list of shorts, that's a gain of 4.8% in one week . Pretty, pretty, pretty good. I chose one of them. I am an idiot. That will not happen again. I'm just gonna load the list from now on. No thinking!

Let's do a little experiment. I will show the list of the 33 sell triggers. So these are 33 shorts that could have been opened at Monday's open. Here are the results for the week as of 3:30 PM Friday, starting with Monday's opening price. ACWI.O 108.26 105.24 2.8% AI 22.19 20.84 6.1% AMH 35.79 35.09 2.0% APTV.K 74.45 69.23 7.0% ARKK.K 46.73 44.38 5.0% ARQT.O 10.18 9.65 5.2% AVDX.O 11.13 11.43 -2.7% DELL.K 119.46 117.88 1.3% DNLI.O 18.97 16.66 12.2% DYN.O 26.14 23.75 9.1% GEN.O 21.09 20.35 3.5% HCP.O 24.45 23.45 4.1% HST.O 20.14 18.60 7.6% KKR 98.81 93.85 5.0% KRE 46.85 46.05 1.7% MGNI.O 9.14 8.58 6.1% MRVL.O 71.25 65.54 8.0% NCLH.K 18.08 18.21 -0.7% NXPI.O 237.49 219.09 7.7% PK 17.24 16.12 6.5% PLD 115.18 104.22 9.5% PNC 152.40 147.57 3.2% PPL 26.83 26.57 1.0% QLD 86.40 79.17 8.4% QQQ.O 442.06 423.61 4.2% QQQM.O 181.89 174.29 4.2% RHI 72.35 69.65 3.7% SCHG.K 92.55 89.07 3.8% SHO 10.87 10.08 7.3% ST 34.87 33.86 2.9% TGTX.O 14.15 14.22 -0.5% TQQQ.O 60.20 52.81 12.3% VRNS.O 44.72 43.58 2.5% Avg 4.8% S&P 500 -2.0% 30 out of 33 winners. Showing how smart I am, I only picked ONE of the MFs to add to the list. Swing Trade Screen Picks – List Shrinks With Good Profits

Any time I allow my judgment to intervene against the pure results of the algorithm I only spent 55 years developing, the result is not good. Source: Swing Trade Screen Picks – List Shrinks With Good Profits So now the support levels are breaking, and I was too impressed with my opinion on the macro to get on the train and make money this week. The macro may yet prove right starting next week, but this was obviously a playable move and I chose not to play because I am so risk averse and I did not think a move lasting 3-4 days (my guess) was worth a shot. But at least the screening algo has proven itself yet again.

That was sarcasm. Just in case you're new around here. As if. 😂😂😂

One of my better calls. Timing was impeccable.

Bullish

Hard to know how the economy is really doing, other than following the tax data. But I do not think that the stock market ever resembles the economy. It's its own entity. Its own reality.

Mystery chart of the day. One More Rally To Go

I'm not sure I understand everything Jimbo says here, but it's definitely worth thinking about. But it looks like it's time for a little rally in Treasuries as T-bill paydowns temporarily flood investor accounts with excess cash. A couple weeks of dropping yields to come. Warning Signs Abound, But Ignore Them for Now Does similar logic apply to stocks? One More Rally To Go As for the intraday stuff, every time I spy a bottom on the ES 24 hour S&P futures, it turns out to be a mirage. I've been hallucinating. Now it looks as though the market has been in a 5 day cycle flat up phase since Monday evening. If this is the up phase, I can't wait to see the down. If they break 5005, the first step looks like 4975. To make that moot, they would need to clear 5045 on the upside. Zooming out to 5 hour bars, you can see why I like 4975 as a target. But you can also see an impressive top pattern with a conventional measured move target of 4850. Since nobody believes this selloff, including me, ergo, nobody is short. And if nobody is short, then he won't be covering on the way down. Only nobody knows what nobody is thinking. So I'll let the screens do the picking and hope they keep on ticking. Swing Trade Screen Picks – List Shrinks With Good Profits For moron the markets, see: Warning Signs Abound, But Ignore Them for Now April 16, 2024 Swing Trade Screen Picks – List Shrinks With Good Profits April 15, 2024 No More Downside April 15, 2024 Back to the Gold Old Days 4/9/24 April 9, 2024 March Withholding Tax Collections Actually Stunk April 5, 2024 Banking Data Says This Is Last Hurrah for Stocks April 3, 2024 The End Is Not Nigh March 26, 2024 Markets Create Money, Money Talks, Markets Listen Etc. March 12, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.

5 day cycle projection 5020, done.

No pundit ever needs to be wrong in this business. You just have to know how to make predictions. If you know how to do that, then you can be right 100% of the time.

Covered that ass!

I was out for a few hours. This was not supposed to happen. Can I get a rerun?

Thing about Joe. He was often wrong, but never in doubt. And truthfully, I learned a lot from him. I still use OBV as one input for my stock screens and picks.

What do earnings have to do with the stock market? Absolutely nothing! What do interest rates have to do with the stock market? Absolutely nothing! What does the economy have to do with the stock market? Absolutely nothing! What does the stock market have to do with the stock market? Absolutely nothing!

Joe!

Yesterday, no one correctly identified our mystery guest, so we will have new contestants attempt it today, on What's My Line, with John Daly, Dorothy Kilgallen (corrected, not kilogallon), Bennet Cerf, Arlene Francis, and Steve Allen. New gold update coming later this morning but first, Back to the Gold Old Days 4/9/24. Also posted a warning yesterday, Incoming! Little bears, get under your desks and cover your heads with your arms. Warning Signs Abound, But Ignore Them for Now As for the here and now, the bottom is in, he will see you now. By the way, in France when it's time to see the doctor, he just pops out and comes for you. And they are always on time. Like the trains. OK, not the trains all the time. The ES, 24 hour S&P futures suggest at least a 5 day cycle low, but the up phase hasn't gotten off the ground and we don't know if it will. Looks like a nice base for a rally, but they might decide to just chop and slop and then break down. Key level is 5080 on the top of the range to get something going all the way to the next resistance level of 5093 woopdedoo. Next one above that would be 5110. Looking down, there's a spport line at 5033. Break that and they could plunge all the way to 5028 where there's some old spport. And then all the way to 5000 where lower channel descending spport comes in around 2:30 turn time. No More Downside The hourly cycle oscillators are bullish but only approaching zero from below. A little push up today would get those into positive territory which would suggest acceleration. On the other hand, stall and rollover from this level, and shorting might be in order. For moron the markets, see: Warning Signs Abound, But Ignore Them for Now April 16, 2024 Swing Trade Screen Picks – List Shrinks With Good Profits April 15, 2024 No More Downside April 15, 2024 Back to the Gold Old Days 4/9/24 April 9, 2024 March Withholding Tax Collections Actually Stunk April 5, 2024 Banking Data Says This Is Last Hurrah for Stocks April 3, 2024 The End Is Not Nigh March 26, 2024 Markets Create Money, Money Talks, Markets Listen Etc. March 12, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.

My memory failed me.

Incoming

Back to the Gold Old Days

What's My Line, with John Daly, Bennet Cerf, Arlene Francis, Steve Allen and Kitty Kilgallen