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But it's not quite there yet as of 6:13 AM ET. The ES hourly 24 hour S&P futures chart needs to break below 4155 first. Then that would have a conventional measured move target of 4128. Whoop de doo. If it doesn't break down today, then they'll head higher into the FOMC picnic tomorrow. There's a lot of news on the liquidity front, which I will address in a Liquidity Trader update tomorrow. Nothing urgent has changed as far as I can tell but I'm still parsing reams of Fed data to see if there's a nugget of insight somewhere that might open the lockbox of future secrets for us. For now all we can do is follow the charts. And pray for guidance. And not the kind of guidance that comes from the Fed. Because it is flying blind. And lying about it. If there's one thing that Jerome Powell learned from the master, Bernanke, it's self exculpatory gaslighting. When asked at his last dog and pony show if the Fed staff had warned the FOMC that any banks were in trouble, he cleared his throat and said, "I don't know. I'll have to get back to you on that." I instantly commented that that was a bald faced lie, and in the past week we got proof of that fact in the release of news of the Fed staff report that had been prepared months before that delineated point by point the exact problem the reporter asked about. Not only is Jerome Powell incompetent. He is a crook. Not only is he a crook, he's a lousy liar. Biden should have fired the guy, but I guess he thought it good to have a useful, dishonest schemer, in charge of the Fed. As bad as Powell is, Bernanke was worse. Bernanke was responsible for the financial genocide of millions of hard working, thrifty, honest, risk avoiding elderly Americans who had saved money all their lives just to earn a little interest income in retirement. Bernanke stole that from them and gave it to his Powells in private equity, at Wall Street banks, and big hedge funds. Bernanke famously said in 2010, "Monetary policy has winners and losers." He chose his crooked cronies to be the winners, and simple, hardworking, honest people to be the losers. The man was a willful financial mass murderer. When it comes to financial holocausts, the soft spoken, even toned, studiously academic Bernanke epitomizes the banality of evil. Yellen, despite her failings of insight, to her eternal credit, started a policy to start reversing the long term theft of savings. Unfortunately, she acted too late, and she moved cautiously and incrementally. When Powell came in, within a few months he doubled down on the Bernankist financial genocide. In doing so, Yellen's would be Volckerist legacy was destroyed and is forgotten. By doubling down on QE and ZIRP Powell finished Bernanke's job of destroying the savings and lives of honest , risk averse, retired savers. The Fed first them of their rightful interest income and transferred it to speculators. Then many of those retired savers were forced to spend down their principal into penury. I saw that process first had in my own family. I'm would guess that you, or people you knew went through it as well. We know the truth of the devastating downside of ZIRP. And now we see the devastating consequences of the aftermath. Finally, QE, and helicopter money in the pandemic set off the worst consumer price inflation in 40 years. Before that, we had the worst asset price inflation ever. But nobody seemed to mind that because supposedly everyone benefitted. Until it ended. Now we have a consumption goods inflation that is robbing everybody, except debtors. And a real asset price deflation that is crushing debtors. Many of those debtors can't pay anymore, or if they can pay, the won't because they no longer have any equity to protect. It's gone. So those same big shots with uninsured deposits are running scared. The dominoes in the banking system are starting to fall. We're in a holy mess. Neither the Fed, nor Janet Yellen's Treasury knows what to do about it. Yellen didn't make this mess, but now she and one of the wiseguys who did are in charge of cleaning it up. There is no way. It's a metastatic cancer. There's no surgical or medical cure. It will grow, and metastasize, until it finally kills the body politic in the US, and the rest of the world. The disaffected always turn to the siren call of the fascists. The cycle ends badly. Rebirth and renewal are too far over the horizon for many of us. The younger folks will need strength and courage and luck to get through what lies ahead. We've been here before 100 years ago. The past is the future. So what to do. Buy stocks, of course. Seriously, if the ES doesn't break 4155 today. 😒 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. For moron the markets, see: Don’t Go Short if This One Thing Happens May 1, 2023 Swing Trade Chart Picks – The Future is One Word – Baking Soda April 26, 2023 Gold’s Lost Luster Will Shine Again April 25, 2023 Enjoy the Market Mirage Now Because We’re Really In a Desert April 24, 2023 The Fed’s Circle Jerk, is ‘Twerking? April 18, 2023 Here’s How We Know That Doom Has Already Arrived April 6, 2023 Macro Liquidity Says No Way Jerray! April 4, 2023 How to Play When Fed Changes the Game, Not Just the Rules March 19, 2023 Systemic Meltdown Under Way As Dead Bodies Finally Start Surfacing March 12, 2023 Here’s Why There Will Never Be Bull Markets Until This One Thing Happens February 26, 2023 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.

I'll add this chart for those not familiar with fifth waves in major crashes. This is the typical fifth wave coming off the "Twin Peaks" topping formation. In the ^GSPC...you're just finishing the transition from the twin peaks(in 2) to the first wave of the 3rd wave of the decline. Get a position and hold on for dear life...is my best advice. I took a look back to familiarize myself with the current discussion. I wish I hadn't. If I did have something to say...I would only be echoing the sentiments of PH and would note...well said, PH. If I was to add... I know it is NOT easy, but always be slow to anger...and quick to apologize. From my perspective. You're going to need each other going forward... Now...more than ever...you need the ability to understand and comprehend the world around you from multiple perspectives. This isn't a weakness...but strength. Be forgiving... Our perspective and awareness are much more limited than our ego's would confess... TCG oh...and... WTF...anytime. You know. There is NOTHING in this world I like more than questions. Give me a few minutes to mull that over...I'm going to head in to the archives and take a look at a few charts....I'll be back.

There's a lot of stuff out there that purports to be economic, monetary, and liquidity analysis. I don't read other people's stuff. There's no point. Markets don't anticipate and they don't discount the future. Anyone who successfully anticipates a big change in the market more often than not is just lucky. Very few people do it more than once. They become very famous, often living on past laurels, not repeating their success, but not needing to. It's not a chess game. Chess involves planning. Markets involve random, usually unknowable human responses to the attempts of policy makers to direct and channel what is inherently chaos. If you try to anticipate, well, they're gonna make this move, and that will be the response and then they'll make that move and then this will be the next response... I mean, come on. Get real. Follow the data. Don't overthink, and don't make shit up and you'll be fine. So what if you miss a major turn by 3 weeks. You won't be betting wrong and losing money for 6 months or a couple of years before. More money is lost by being too early than by being a little late. When I do macro liquidity analysis, all I want to do, and can do, is try to correctly identify the existing trend or trends, and try to notice when they are changing. If we are paying attention, then we'll see the signs of change as they begin to crop up. So you won't be too late. I see signs of it now in the latest data. It's early, but change is coming. Modestly Hedged Dealers, Record Short Hedge Funds Suggest Disaster Ahead But the most important fact is that liquidity analysis merely sets the context. Knowing context is what helps us to better understand and act on the technical charts in the right direction at the right time. Meanwhile, we focus here on the day to day. The ES 24 hour S&P fuguetures are our muse. They're due for 3 and 5 day cycle highs this morning. But we can't rule out an extension. Another triangle is forming that should signal what comes next. The top line falls from 4164 to 4161 today. The lower line rises from 4145 to 4161. Break either of those lines, and we have a signal as to what's likely for the next really big move. I mean, could be as much as 3 or 4 points. In other words, why expect follow through now, when we haven't had any since time immemorial? OK, ok, if they clear 4155 with momo, then there's a conventional measured move target of 4205. To get there, they'd need to clear trend resistance at 4163, and the pivot high of 4166. 4161 is the Dick Trickle Memorial Point, and it's due at the end of regular trading in New York. Would be a fitting end to the day. Non Functional GPS Market Meanwhile the 10 year Treasury yield marches toward its measured move target of 3.92, which is about where it would also run into trend resistance. Hell! Why stop there? Modestly Hedged Dealers, Record Short Hedge Funds Suggest Disaster Ahead Meanwhile, gold, the standard bearer of the eternal flame of unrequited love has come down to a big trend sport line. Will this be the day it finally says yes, it will marry you? Let's see. Gold’s Immaculate Correction For moron the markets, see: Modestly Hedged Dealers, Record Short Hedge Funds Suggest Disaster AheadMay 25, 2023 Non Functional GPS Market May 22, 2023 Swing Trade Chart Picks – Let’s Get Ready to Rumble May 18, 2023 Gold’s Immaculate Correction May 19, 2023 The Most Widely Forecast Economic Disaster In History May 16, 2023 Weak Real Time Withholding Taxes Set Up a Showdown May 4, 2023 The Big One is Coming May 3, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!

One final chart as we head into the weekend. It's not over. It hasn't even started yet... Sixteen Times Twelve Is?: Over a decade later and the ^HUI is still looking for a bottom... Best Regards, The CoinGuy

Gotta trade the charts. Even there, I'm finding the edge to be significantly less than in the past. It's frustrating. Perhaps much of the blame for this market can be place with the fact that shorts are their own worst enema. On that note, I bid you a bonne weak end, Bonne nuit et bonne chance!

Matching cups...NO handles. Best, The CoinGuy

I leave for a couple of days and the Bulls have completely destroyed the China Shop... It appears as though I'll be playing the part of the Bear this go around. Claws and all... After all it's nice to have someone to point fingers at and chuckle...although, it does prevent some from turning inward and taking a good long look at their own behavior. Of course....I'm not speaking to any of you fine gentlemen. I see the 'move to dishearten the bears' has brought the 'emboldened' bulls out in force. Although, calling a sideways consolidation since the October lows...a bull market...is a bit of a stretch? We've been going sideways for what, almost a year now? No matter...I'll run with the idea. If the ^GSPC can steamroll through 4310(and hold it), I'll be joining you on your quest. I was actually inspired to see the Nasdaq clean out that gap...and since the ^GSPC is so close...I'd like to see it follow suit. Then...I consider this 'bull market', over. Now. If 4310 is pierced and can be held on Volume. I will gladly accept that I've been incorrect and pick up a spud peeler. I prefer the swiss peeler, Kuhn Rikon...and I have it at the ready. Until then...let's see how it goes. I think the turn is coming in about right now, meaning today. Although, perhaps as soon as Monday? Although, it's never Mondays? Is it? Here is the aforementioned gap in the SPX: I'd like to see it fill...and then this market roll over like a good dog. Twin Peaks Formation Reference Chart Despite, what? A year of constant harping and 25-30 charts outlining the Twin Peaks Formation from every angle possible, not a single taker? Ok... Since I spent time completing the chart below, I'll post it and then just tuck away the 'Twin Peaks' for another time. Again. From my perspective...we're in nothing more than a simple 'Twin Peaks' topping formation and have never left. You're finishing up the secondary peak now... At the Turn...if the Pattern isn't breaking...you're dead wrong. I've been watching the DAX(and the Nikkei) very closely. The reason is... with this apparent attempt at a new all time high on the DAX you're on the verge of breaking the pattern I outlined in my previous chart a week or two back. The CAC40 is still acting correctly, but the DAX...if it continues and can hold it. This is another place where you can also force a mea culpa from Ol' CoinGuy. Although, It's not over...until it's over. You know...I can remember the DAX having made a double top...and then a couple of years later it made another attempt at piercing that double peak just like it is today. Let's see...when was that? Right before the Pandemic Crash. I have zero doubt it will repeat... This time around, let's take a look at the CAC40 against our ol' favorite...BTC. and then follow it up with...NOW?: Since I mentioned the Nikkei, I'll add this. The ^N225 is dancing on the edge. YOU may see the Nikkei...I see the DAX! Ahh...The symmetry of a 'completed pattern'. Then, we have that gap fill in the Nasdaq and as I've said many times. One day means nothing, it has to hold the area and on Volume. Probing into a region, while it can be exciting...it has to hold the ground it just took. If it can't? Simply put...it's over. Same as the SPX, if the Nasdaq can pierce through and hold 13,200...I'll join you. Why? "Because that is the difference between a consolidation...and a continuation." I can only hope that you take the time to think that through... I'll close with this... We've been treated to the 'appearance' of Gold & Silver trading inverse to the Stock Market since the October lows...nothing could be further from the truth. Two Peas in a Pod: Going forward from here. They will both continue to travel together until the magnet in the ^GSPC has been reached. Then? Blue Skies for one. The other? Green Shoots that eventually die of starvation(from lack of liquidity)... "When you say you'll bail everyone out...the first test of that theory isn't far behind." Best Regards, The CoinGuy oh...and... For your convenience... 'Dust in the Wind' from the archives:

Doc: For those who don't have social media accounts...Please consider continuing to post a few pictures on-site. And...have a great time. I actually admire the French. While Americans sit on their couches....the French go into the street. SiP: Excellent photography. JIMBO: I don't comment on your posts as much as I should, but I do enjoy reading them. All of them. I do believe Warren is holding cash(or cash equivalents) for the same reason I am. In fact...I can remember only two people in the whole world who were very vocal about mentioning this at the beginning of 2022. Both are members of this forum. TCG oh...and... My fellow goldbugs... Remember what I said. This market simply cannot pause here. It has to continue going upward and to the right. ANY strength back below 275(especially if it tanks below 272 on Volume) - protect yourself. Nesting cups at peaks/valleys usually ends in tears. This is NOT the time to be playing games. Below 260? It's over. For those in the ^GSPC. Don't lose sight of the 'left peak' high on February 2nd. A move above 4195.44 might temporarily slow down any market bearishness... If it fails to overcome the swing? After all the charts I've posted...I don't think there is any further need to elaborate. There are rumors everywhere...but only The Shadow(Banks) Know(s).

From October 13th to May 1st is how many days? I looked through the archives here on Capitalstool and my archives on our server. I posted here up until the 21st of April. Most of the charts I've produced since have been for private consumption...but I have a few I can toss out there. You might get something out of them...you might not. I have a file folder on the server called "ROUGH"...it's where I keep my rough drafts of what I plan on expanding on in the future. I saw something in there that caught my eye. It has to do with the ^HUI...I'll come back at a later time when I've developed the chart and have a comment or two. Ok...Onto a chart or three...maybe even half a dozen. I'm just going to start commenting and I'm going to keep commenting 'off the cuff' until I get tired. When I'm tired? I'll see you somewhere down the road. I believe I've already mentioned I have several former students who like to hang around the 'nest'. The conversation as of late has been centered around the banks. Bank of America(BAC) has been coming up more than most for some reason. Probably because of the weakness being displayed in the chart. I think they're seeing vulnerability here... Out of the larger banks...it's toward the leading edge in this current decline. Especially when I start to consider the 'shadow banking' system. You know...the guys in the background? Although, most have not crossed the line of no return - yet. I repeatedly made sure you were aware of this line back when BTC and ETH were sitting just above the edge. Now...I'm showing you BLK straddling the same line. With that said...here is a chart of BTC in a comparison chart against BLK. Before viewing this chart though...please recall my recent introduction to...Wave Pattern Distortion. This. Is a perfect example. The chart is a couple of weeks old now...and...we're currently drawing near to the line. Once broken...under 400 is where she ought to come in for a nice landing. Oh...and BAC? Anything south of 17.50 means serious trouble. Since we've mentioned BTC, I'll toss out this chart of the Russell 2000. Better be watching that line carefully... I had someone ask me about tech. I believe during the beginning phases of the tech wreck, the ARK Innovation ETF was mentioned daily as some form of poster child for the excess coming out of the 2020 lows. When I answered the question...I first took a close look at the full decline against the Nasdaq 2000 crash just as I did earlier today... Here we have the 2000 Nasdaq crash on the left vs. ARKK on the right: and then I jumped up into the topping formation itself to have a go against what I've been viewing in the ^DJI as it finishes it's second wave. 'Divide and Conquer', 'Wave Pattern Distortion', and Inversions...it's all right there for your viewing pleasure. Smile... The ^DJI is on the left...ARKK on the right: I also had several people asking about short funds. I've commented on these leveraged funds several times now. I don't personally use this type of vehicle....and....anything over 1.5x leverage will never receive any form of endorsement from ol' CoinGuy. Although, I know people are going to do what they're going to do and they might as well do it with as much information as possible. With that said... I've discussed the following bottoming pattern with you in regards to the gold stocks bottoming back in '02/'03...and as of late in the ^TNX chart as well as what is about to take place in the ^HUI. This is the chart I passed along to one of my former students...while telling him to pull back whatever he's looking at on the daily, make sure it has this formation, AND...that it's as fully developed as this pattern here. If it is? Tight stops...even if they're mental stops. I'm going to repeat myself in regards to this pattern. It is the most powerful bottoming pattern I personally know of. If you're reading this and you're young? Just spend the rest of your life hunting down this pattern...waiting with patience until it's fully developed...deposit a couple of seeds and then move on. If it's sector wide...just pick the two strongest issues within that sector and then move along. April 13th is the opposite day of the year from? I'll conclude with the ^HUI chart of the MOEX. Huh? What? I'll repeat as I always do... Think it through. Seriously... Think it through. Always study. Never give up. See you on the flipside... The CoinGuy

"On the XOI, are you looking at the weekly 9/18/2006-7/7/2008 and comparing it to the weekly 4/19/2021-today?" Here is a weekly chart of the ^XOI. Remember...both Doc and I have mentioned. Pattern's do not repeat...they rhyme. Why is that? It's because of the nature of patterns. No matter whether you're fulfilling a short term pattern on the daily...or you're zooming out and looking at the monthly. You're ALWAYS inside of a 'pattern...within a pattern' and the fractal always abides by the structure of the larger formation. Can you begin to see it? To understand it? In the ^XOI...If you're taking the rules of the larger formation into consideration...the 2020 lows are the MAGNET. Now...let me take this one step further. Perhaps...take what I've said and think ^GSPC? WHY? Put your thinking cap on! If the decline in the ^GSPC is halted at 2,240 to 2,250(2020 MAGNET)...then you'll be setting up for one type of decline...and IF it barrels on through the MAGNET? Then...the end result is a 'numeric' structure that will resemble what I have just shown you in Natural Gas and ETH. Think about that? TCG

WTF... As I posited on my post-it note. They're all broke and I mean ALL. Just as in '08...these collapses are only the pus oozing from those lurking in the "shadow's". Right here on my little tablet...I have a dozen "regionals" teetering on the edge right now. Although...as I look down...Pacwest is one of them. One(or two) money 'C'enter isn't looking too healthy either. Probably why I put up charts of both? I don't think you'll mind? When I got in this afternoon....I received your note. I hope you don't mind if I reply in public because I want everyone to benefit from the question you asked. Which is...where is Henry Hub Natural Gas headed? Would it be helpful if I just give you the answer in a picture? Or...maybe I'll add a few words. I mentioned over the last several months that the tech stocks(and crypto) were winding their way through 4th wave consolidation patterns while the broad markets were completing their topping pattern and setting up for their crash phase. Also known as...a 3rd wave decline. Now. The reason I've taken a break is because you're not going to convince anyone of anything after they've taken a position...and your...time is up. So...this canary simply stopped singing. At this point, the best advice I can offer...is to clean up the trades you're wrong on quickly and simply...reverse course. Going forward... I'd imagine...if you're traveling with vehicles that would benefit from being short the broad markets...this would be your best vehicle at this time. Shorting the metals(with something like GDXD) or any of the sectors where you're traveling in a fifth wave...can turn around and bite you real quick. These are notorious for sharp rallies...and then folding over and resuming the decline with you sitting on the sidelines licking your wounds. Unless you know what you're doing...again...those issues traveling with the broad markets...are your best/safest vehicle. You know...I harped on about ^XOI for quite some time and no one seemed to care. That index is in it deep. Stay away from anything associated with these sectors - for now. Later on...when you're looking for bottoms. Just remember what I said. "Markets that run into trouble at 9.20 usually correct to one of three levels(with one variation). 1.30, .9, and .4(sometimes .45). Although, there is one variation...and that targets 1.00(+.10). I'm going to make this very clear here. The broad markets at this time...like shooting fish in a barrel. Concentrate your efforts...there. Below 3810 is your confirmation... In closing...take a good look at the chart. It IS the roadmap for the S&P 500. Just pull up a weekly and draw a line across 4,600....and start to think. All. Markets. Are. Connected. Best of Luck to All... The CoinGuy

I have a lot of respect for everyone on this board. At the end of the day, Wall Street, politicians, and the powers to be, want us argue amongst ourselves so they can pick our pockets. Each day we all see and try to point out the manipulation, self serving ,rule bending, insider trading, bailout providing, etc, etc. I think that is part of what has made this board special. Hate to see the actions of others not part of this board, end up tearing this board apart.

That she has in common with Nancy Pelosi 😂

I'm not personally familiar with the squalor into which NYC fell in the 1970s & 80s. But the city became notorious for crime & murder. On a related note, in 1993 residents voted in the first Republican as Mayor more or less since WWII. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mayors_of_New_York_City Conceding for argument's sake that all the policy goals pursued in San Francisco are noble & pure, it seems apparent on my aperiodic visits that the execution of that policy has been, to put it generously... "spotty." In some ways, the situation is not as bad as it is caricatured by rightwing media, which otherwise loves demonizing the place; but it is also far worse than those running the city and their starry-eyed supporters will admit. Quality of life there is down. I've walked my younger son past junkies shooting up on our way back from his doctor's appointment far afield from the Tenderloin or downtown. I've walked down long BART corridors at the Civic Center station lined with junkies, some cooking & others shooting. For its part, San Francisco established itself as a safe-zone on the eve of an opioid wave. I've watched youtube interviews of addicts from other parts of the country who moved to SF because they knew they could get their fix and not get hassled - acknowledging that if they shot up in public back home the way they can on Market Street, they'd go straight to prison. As a result.... https://www.beatiteap.com/san-francisco-drug-addicts-outnumber-students/ If you've ever known any addict of anything, you know solutions are not simple. Supply of affordable housing is another component that has rendered urban California less attractive. With recession looming, the situation seems poised to get worse before it gets better. But I would say much like NYC in the 1970 & 80s: only the foolhardy bet against San Francisco. And if its denizens surprise the nation eventually by voting in a Republican mayor, I'd buy up all the possible real estate I could manage.

We had NFT‘s, we had SPAC‘s, we have cryoto, all a sign of absolute and total mania and misallocation of capital in epic proportions. Given all that stocks in general should be down much more.

Bitcoin supply is designed to be capped at 21 million. This finite-supply imposes a scarcity that affords it great intrinsic value that many don't recognize. One should be buying bitcoin today because of that. Someday, Giant Meteor will slam into the planet, destroying human civilization in its entirety. Such eventuality imposes a finite-supply on equities that afford great intrinsic value that many don't recognize. One should be buying equities today because of that.

NVDA..... Revenue down 20%+ y/y Net income, operating income and eps all down over 50% y/y Cash on hand down nearly 17% Yeah, that's some excellence.

I have been warning Technical Trader subscribers about the likelihood that this is a cyclical bull market since Q4 of last year when cycle analysis suggested that a 4 year cycle low was due. And I think that we got proof of it yesterday when we saw a new intermediate term higher high after a higher low. In both cases it was the second higher high and higher low over a period of months. That's a bull market in my book. But this "bull" is now 8 months old. And even though the short term looks very bullish, if you think that we can then extrapolate this into another long secular bull run, think again. It's unlikely. Think Japan after their first pullback from their initial QE experiment 30 years ago. They stayed locked in a range for a couple of decades. So I think that unless the Fed returns to full fledged long term QE, flexibility will be the key. You'll need to do the technicals, and follow the liquidity flows, and assume nothing. I don't think that buy and hold will work. Buy and trade, just might, however. Meanwhile today looks bullish. We had a base breakout yesterday. The 5 day cycle projection is now 4225. The base breakout measures to 4250 in the short run. There's an even bigger base that suggests 4310 in a couple of days. But first, a number. They need to clear trend resistance around 4220. I'm not even gonna think about the downside yet. Trend support is coming up to 4190 in the opening hour in NY, so don't get suckered by any little shakeouts that come up this morning. For moron the markets, see: Swing Trade Chart Picks – Let’s Get Ready to Rumble May 18, 2023 The Most Widely Forecast Economic Disaster In History May 16, 2023 The Twilight Zone May 15, 2023 Swing Trade Chart Picks – Buy Side Wins This Week May 8, 2023 There’s One Key this Week to the Stock Market Outlook May 7, 2023 Gold Is on the Brink May 5, 2023 Weak Real Time Withholding Taxes Set Up a Showdown May 4, 2023 The Big One is Coming May 3, 2023 Gold’s Lost Luster Will Shine Again April 25, 2023 Enjoy the Market Mirage Now Because We’re Really In a Desert April 24, 2023 The Fed’s Circle Jerk, is ‘Twerking? April 18, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!

Good evening... For now...this is going to be my final chart. The Holy Grail: The rules for this formation can be read in the "The Great Reset UPDATED, Companion Chart 1a" below. In fact, for your convenience...I'll just post a copy of the whole series from the beginning. Since early April, I've given wave after wave of charts. I think this is enough until 3810 is lost in the ^GSPC. Once 3810 falls, I plan on being less and less active until we reach the MAGNET. I actually never planned on giving market commentary, smile. I'm a goldbug. At the MAGNET is where I'll be assessing the gold(and silver) situation...and probably update this chart here. Although, none of what I say should come as a surprise...FTW's 'Gold Star' Chart...already light's the path to the Promise Land. Remember what I said...If the magnet holds. I'll give one final series of charts. Then...POOF! I'll be gone. Where? For me, it's not Blue Skies, but Blue Water... If the magnet doesn't hold? Well...we'll come to that IF it happens. I'm not holding my breath. At the magnet...when people begin to see 90% declines. Oh, they'll be calling it good when the suits step in to screw the public(for their own good). Unfortunately...I'll still be shaking my head in disbelief. Compounded leverage takes more than one stage to unwind. Best Regards, The CoinGuy oh...and... As promised... The Great Reset ORIGINAL: The Great Reset UPDATED: The Great Reset UPDATED - Companion Chart 1a: For those who would like to understand the thoughts behind this pattern. Just search the archives for: "The Pattern!", "The Pattern within the Pattern!", and "Through the Looking Glass". If you can't find one of them, just shoot me a private message and I'll re-post the missing chart. In 'Through the Looking Glass'...I gave my exact thoughts on what I felt the next decade would entail - all within the confines of the 60 minute chart. To me. That chart is a masterpiece.

Finally... For those who just love punishment... Until Friday then... TCG

itiswhatitis... Before I reply...I wanted to mention that it's good to see you posting. I see your name down there at the bottom quite often, but I don't recall you posting. I'll apologize for removing the content. About a half hour after I posted I received a call about a relative. I'm heading out this morning and I won't be back until Thursday evening. I thought the 'tutorial' wasn't up long so...I'd remove it while I'm gone and just re-post it when I return. Although, it appears as though someone is actually reading my material, so back up it goes. Like I've always said...I don't care if there is one man or a hundred. As long as someone is interested in learning...I'll continue to post. I'm here to educate and lift up those who want to learn... So...here we go: I wrote this morning that 'as long as we don't take out the peak from February 2nd' my vote would be for nesting one's and two's. Although, that thought comes with a caveat. Always remember what Jesse espoused about markets... "The market is designed to fool most of the people most of the time". So...when I'm viewing the double top currently developing and I look at that pattern that has developed on the right hand side...I searched through my archives and could not find a single instance where that pattern was a peak. It was usually a continuation, a 2nd or 4th wave consolidation pattern...where you would have one more push - to completion(5th wave). Perhaps, a push...to dishearten the bears...and lend confidence to the bulls? Well...for now...I'll just enter a few of my own quotes. "I'll judge today, by what I see tomorrow." "One day does not a new trend make." "Patience Pays". Don't fall for any nonsense being the main point. Let's see the whites of their eyes before putting pressure on the trigger. Now...the caveat to the caveat. Smile. The left peak in '08 was the high. The right peak just rolled over... Smile... Moving on... I recently posted this chart of the nesting peaks & valleys in the ^HUI. This pattern isn't all that common, but when it appears...well, as I said that day...it ends in tears. If you think you've identified a nesting cup at a bottom and you're watching the market advance...start watching the advance and keep your eyes open for a 'halfway marker' of some sort. The market will always give you one. Later on...when we're discussing measuring from the center to the outside, I'll help you take advantage of that information. Until then. NOTE THE DATE! A pattern. Will. Unfold. What do you mean a pattern will unfold? What do you think I'm teaching here, pie in the sky nonsense? Smile. I've spent a great deal of time showing you pattern after pattern in the stock market have I not? Don't you think there would also be a 'pattern in Time'? Huh? What? Smile. Pay attention to the dates I post. There is not a single date that I post that doesn't have HUGE significance to the Stock Market - In. A. Repetitive. Manner. I'll ask...Can you begin to SEE it? There's that pesky 19.20 again... Here I am a staunch and I do mean staunch 110% backer of all things Gold...and you wouldn't believe how many enemies in that sector I made when I came in back at the 2011 peak(which was 640 in the ^HUI.) with my 'The 610 train to Nowhere Speech'...or my 2008 call in silver at 19.20. The names I was called...well...it was an interesting experience. On both occasions...from hero to outcast...in 30 seconds flat. 640 time 3 is? Now, when I kept repeating over and over after the June 8th peak in the ^XOI(see: Life IS a Symphony in the archives) that there were serious advantages to paying close attention to this sector...it didn't draw much attention. Well, that didn't prevent me from taking a little slice for myself. Now, as this opportunity comes to a close...if anyone on the forum is still hanging around you might want to move along before you become a statistic... You could walk over to oil, where there is still something worthy to look at(two charts down), but frankly...there are better opportunities lining up in the market itself(next chart). From my perspective...it's your best opportunity. Although, I live by rules...and one of them is. To each his own... When you view the Rev H&S, please hear my words. "Other's might be looking for continuation...I'm looking for inversion". And here is that brief look at oil... Before I discuss bonds...I'm going to add this comment that wasn't in the original post, but is more and more finding it's way to forefront of my thoughts. I never mince words or sit on a fence and I always take full responsibility for my actions. I also try to be very direct in my manner of speech when bringing forth an idea... Going Forward "If the Stock Market doesn't recoil at the 2,240 to 2,250 MAGNET. Then...THAT is your signal that you're getting it ALL dumped into your lap right now. AND...the target will be according to the Rule of 19.20!" "The only thing that can override the Rule of 19.20 IS the MAGNET." Keep one eye on that 50% level from the January 2022 peak. Tweet Tweet...it'll be your canary. 2,240 to 2,250 is the dividing line between a one-stage and two-stage decline. To keep that picture simple... The difference between a repeat of '08...and...'29. Can you really begin to SEE it? Bonds My assistant and bond guy Tom asked me twice this week my thoughts on bonds. I can tell he's interested here, so I did take a look at the charts. I poured over them for quite some time. I'm going to go ahead...after the ball gets rolling...and post a chart(or three) on the bond market, then refrain from any further comments on bonds going forward - unless absolutely necessary. The simple reason is...I do not like bonds. Since the early 90's, well...MBS and some other practices...I just don't like them. I don't like insurance either. Can you guess what type of firm my father owned? One or the other? Or...I'm well versed...in both? At any rate, I've already lined up what I want to convey in the chart. I'll just need a little time. I do believe once you view my chart(s) you won't need any other information for quite some time. If you review my UUP charts, or any charts mentioning HE(High Energy) events in the archives...the chart I post won't come as much of a shock.... Take Care All, as long as everything goes well...I shall see you on Friday. The CoinGuy

This market is a farce. The volume, the breath… I mean: What kind of absolutely effed up shit is this???

I've been watching the XOI rather closely. Although...I felt too closely...I had to revise the BIM 3 times! It seems....the whole world is sitting on some pretty thin support(lines). If you read my scratch sheets. The one month cycle on the 13th(sometimes 14th) is what I was watching as a possible turn. So...hopefully next week offers us something worth looking at... I'll offer this up because I am watching it... The first peak in the ^DJI at the all time high was on 11.08 in 2021. The peak in the ^IXIC was on 11.22. 11.15 can sometimes be a pivot...or a turning point. If you've been paying attention it's also 40 days from 10.06...and 40 days from Xmas. There's more, but you get the idea. And the opposite part of the year is...Monday. Who knows...we'll see how it goes. Could be nothing. Historically, in May...the 19th through the 22nd, and the 31st can also be important days. Everyone have a good weekend... TCG

Why I'm here... Sniff...Sniff. There’s something in the air. As we start our 3rd week in the Serengeti. Tom...our cameraman has just discovered a young male lion prowling through the brush on the west slope. Perhaps, we should pause for a moment and take in the beauty of this magnificent beast... Oh, wait. As I panned left with my binoculars I just caught a glimpse of a young gazelle limping into in the middle of the field… I’ve swam by this issue three or four times now...I like to wait until they stop kicking before I take a chunk. Like I said, “They have one push left”...and...you’re in the latter stage of that push right now. when the NDX gives it up...well, you know. Truth is. PYPL isn’t the canary. I am….and...I’ve been tweeting loud and clear for weeks. Three heads….of the same entity? Huh? What? I think anyone that knows me knows my favorite pastime. Stock Market Crashes. I've had time to go through all of the current bank charts as well as the current charts of the individual stocks in the ^DJI. I took all of these issues and have compared their patterning behavior against the 'textbook' crash and bankruptcy patterns from my historical database(archive). I gave you a sample in Disney...but my God man. I say this with no jesting. I'm concerned. The CoinGuy

Remember this from my archives? WAY too large to fit in the first post... Sayonara... TCG

4130, 4.13...are you getting it yet? 31.4T... A brief pause at 170... TCG

Very nice! Awesome pic of Brandenburg Gate. The Stasi (for „STAatsSIcherheitsdienst“) was the Secret Service of the interior ministry in the GDR. They had 1.5 million so called IM‘s („informelle Mitarbeiter“) which were ordinary citizens who spy‘d on their neighbour and such. That were roughly 10% of the population of the GDR. So imagine a suburb in the US where there is a street where 100 families live, 10 of them would have been spy‘s who did observe you. Secretely. To live in freedom is such a gift and treasure which should be protected always and everywhere.

Quick Revision to BIM - 4.0 While looking back to my post from last evening...I agree with every word(especially in regards to the metals), but I believe there wasn't enough emphasis within the BIM itself in regards to the major trend line at 1600 in the XOI. Therefore, I made a quick revision to the BIM to make this point more clear. Since I'm here and I'm speaking about the XOI...I'll re-post this old chart. Quite dated...but the thought on the numbering structure going forward - is sound. I'll also re-post this chart. Between these two charts...I think the picture becomes quite clear. - AND - Never forget...issues that stumble at 1920 go to where? As we head into a new day across the pond...I'll close with this. The Coronation of a King... If I recall correctly...it was the Kings(and Merchants) who wept when Babylon fell. At one time...I believe I also heard. All power(and authority) has been given...to topple Kingdoms. You know...I’ve always wondered. What would happen if the whole world woke up one day and discovered the stock market was a complete scam from the very beginning? Well, that’s just crazy talk...right? Again, I wish you all the best. The CoinGuy oh...and... (sometimes 4.50)? The Banners are already waving over the horizon. Won't be long now. Soon. Very...Soon.

As I exit stage left I'm going to drop this... I added key short term support levels in the SPX and the metals. I sense a change in the latter, be on your toes. Also had to revise the XOI for the 3rd time! I looked over that chart good...if you slice through 1600, then I do believe 1400 will hold for a time. Best of luck to everyone...I'll see you sometime down the road. The CoinGuy

If you are interested in Charts and Technical Analysis, go look at last night's message board. The CoinGuy was putting on a clinic... very helpful. Thanks TCG.

Since the price of money, interest rates that is, make no sense, I don't think any market prices makes sense now. I mean assuming they are supposed to.

WTF... Now. Let's look at that ^HUI Chart from 2011 again? The right shoulder in this chart is truncated...but...as mentioned, there is no difference on the backside whether this particular peak is truncated...or not. The decline is the same. Can you now see the 'larger fractal' from the ^XOI being represented here in the ^HUI? What happens if we add the ^GSPC? The high in the box would represent the 'Non-Truncated' peak in the ^GSPC from January of 2022? So...if I said. Christmas of 2018 is the head? You can begin to see why I've been saying all along we're heading back to the MAGNET? It doesn't matter how far you stretch the pattern...it will not break! What is currently taking place in the ^GSPC actually started in 2000... In the ^XOI...the pattern currently being played out is an 'echo' from what transpired in '07/'08. Just imagine a rock hitting the surface of a pond...this is a larger ripple of '07/'08. I know you can see it now...smile. I only wish that market participants would desire to understand the following statement: 1929 is the beginning of the left shoulder....74 is the head...and we just finished up the right shoulder at the close of 2021. For those familiar with my earlier illustrations in the tech crash stocks....1x/rest/1x. Go back and look at my The Beginning, The Middle, and The End charts and think...10x/rest/10x? Seriously...think that through! "As you enter INTO the formation...in the same manner you shall LEAVE." Best, TCG

AMD down after reporting earnings. Doesn't make any sense, don't they know the secret? Just say AI about 200 times, good for about a 10% pop.

Warren demands stop of rate hikes since almost a year.

Lee gave an excellent commentary on what will drive gold and silver higher. Loss of confidence and trust. Trust is more powerful than money printing.

Greenspan and Bernanke and the rest are simply doing what's popular. All Americans love money, meaning credit. Love love love love love it. Money to inflate asset values is a bedrock of America. Being against inflation in America is like being against gravity.

RE REALITY VS MAINSTREAM MEDIA NARRATIVE Mainstream financial media narrative always set by ruling fashion. Fashion set by major financial companies through power of add spend. The rule is always "D'ont rock the boat" This always leads them to downplay and minimize negative news. This site gives negative news the value it deserves because it is not dependent on add revenue.

Presented without commentarhea.

Very good!

flowers are blooming, but not a bee in sight. this is mass extinction.

The past two days are a perfect example of free markets functioning normally. Also, be careful what you wish for. Recessions are bullish. Because recessions are when the Fed loosens monetary policy. Finally, as my hero Joe Granville used to say, "What do earnings have to do with the stock market? Absolutely nothing!" And a hearty, "Bonjour et bonne chance," to you from nice Nice France! More upcoming. Meanwhile, here's the hourly ES, 24 hour S&P fucutures illustrating market fucktioning normally. The 5 day cycle has topped out. But what shape the down phase? Flat, or down in absolute terms. Aye, there's the rub! For moron the markets, see: Swing Trade Chart Picks – The Future is One Word – Baking Soda April 26, 2023 Enjoy the Market Mirage Now Because We’re Really In a Desert April 24, 2023 Why Not Get Too Excited About Bearish Proclamations… Yet April 24, 2023 Is Gold Still Ticking After This Licking? April 19, 2023 The Fed’s Circle Jerk, is ‘Twerking? April 18, 2023 Here’s How We Know That Doom Has Already Arrived April 6, 2023 Macro Liquidity Says No Way Jerray! April 4, 2023 How to Play When Fed Changes the Game, Not Just the Rules March 19, 2023 Systemic Meltdown Under Way As Dead Bodies Finally Start Surfacing March 12, 2023 Here’s Why There Will Never Be Bull Markets Until This One Thing Happens February 26, 2023 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/office-conversion-housing-17769370.php https://abc7news.com/downtown-san-francisco-offices-into-housing-sf-buildings/13086443/

Had to look up which building in downtown SF was now valued at under $10m. Cheaper than this home across town.... https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Francisco/2880-Green-St-94123/home/1020891

Great end of the week for bulls.

And nobody saw it coming.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Yucca-Valley/57288-Farrelo-Rd-92284/home/3823821#marketing-remarks-scroll Price cut today from $695K to... $694K. LOLOLOL... a thousand bucks to refresh it on the MLS. Transacted: 04/2018 for $273K 05/2016 for $251K 10/2012 for $215K 09/2007 for $317K <== "NINJA" era.....