The whole world is perfectly aligned for Russia! Russia! Russia!
Going forward. Please remember/recall the two themes. "All issues that stumble at 192" and "So. About Half?"
Don't think for a second that I forgot...
I owe you a Gold Star chart.
Don't be turned off by the rough appearance...there is a gem inside. This IS the most potent chart I have publicly posted.
The consolidation "in the ^DJI" from January 26, 2018 to the peak on February 12, 2020(747d) right before the pandemic crash is the left...and...from the January 5th, 2022 peak until this very day(555d)....is the right side. Understanding wave pattern distortion(and you should have at least a basic comprehension by now), you might begin to SEE they are nothing more than a mirror image of one another.
Subtract right from left?
Speaking of mirror images. In my last post entitled..."Real Answers to Real Questions".
June 16 - June 30 - July 14.
"As you enter into the formation...in the same manner you shall leave."
This CAN apply to time as well...
Bear Instruction Manual 5.0
I did look over the BIM 5.0, no changes are necessary. All numbers are good, but I will comment that SLV/GLD are in the throes of a crash...avoid this area at all costs. With the SPX, I've already mentioned it many times. Wait until 4460, then 4410 is given up on volume.
In ALL Things...Patience.
Think this through. Study. Never Give Up!
I'll drop in at 2,240 to 2,250 on the SPX.
Would this clear up the question everyone is afraid to ask?
2.24 + 2.24 = 5.18
See you then.
This should clear up any misunderstanding of that secondary pocket? This quick & dirty chart is just a recap from "So...About Half?". Your particular issue is slightly distorted, but that changes nothing on the downside.
Here is a chart to accompany that encyclopedia of an answer. I inverted the 8.16 peak so you can see the current S&P 500 in its proper form.
To answer your real question with a real answer.
I expected the first primary peak to be on the 16th as mentioned on that day. Then, if there is to be a follow-up retest...the 30th of June which is this Friday is the best candidate. Could come in late, even up to a week...but I don't see it yet. Suffice it so say...anywhere from 14-21 days is open game.
I also don't believe a secondary peak/retest will be strong enough to bring all issues to a new high, but could do so for the ^IXIC and the ^GSPC. The ^DJI, from my perspective isn't guaranteed.
At any rate...the retest(for most issues) should be...'the high'.
I already gave you the target price, which was 4400(+10/-10) and I'm now very comfortable that you understand what I'm saying...and why I'm saying it.
I also told you that outside of the 50 point envelope is 4,510. If my target was off, 4460 should contain the probe...but...above 4,510 on volume the market will look to make a new high surpassing the 1.04.22 peak.
I don't see that happening...
At this moment...I've looked over my work...and I see no reason to change my forecast.
While I am here...
There was a minor typo in the DJI section of BIM 5.0 - Final Public Edition, it has now been corrected.
If you need examples of double peaks. Please recall the market I told you would turn first?
Look at the ^HUI, the GLD and the SLV. Should be pretty clear...
Take a look at AMD.
There's you canary. Tweet. Tweet.
Here is a copy of my ‘Bear Instruction Manual – 5.0, the Final Public Edition.
Going forward, the manual will be posted on my new site. As with all things, it will always be free. The site will be centered around teaching of a new method of Technical Analysis I call ‘Patterned Behavioral Analysis’. Of which, you’ve already received a taste. The site by its very nature will be centered around education.
The new site will be at thetwistedmystic.com and is just about ready to go into development. Nothing fancy, just a simple blog where charts(and mild commentary) will be posted. Nothing more...other than perhaps a pattern chart archive as a later addition. I’ve spoken with Tom...I’m thinking mid to late August for a completion date sounds about right.
My whole theme for this decline that we’re on the edge of is taken from the title to one of my charts…
I’d imagine that chart is somewhere in the archive on this site. Although, here is a more current rendition along the same theme.
I do believe as we go forward...you’ll see this theme played out across all markets. Please keep your eyes on the MAGNET of your particular issue of interest...and if you’ve followed me, you know why.
Here is my recent companion chart to “The Great Unwind” chart series:
I can't say enough...that this chart series should be studied until the concept that is represented within the chart is completely understood. From my perspective...your financial life depends on it. The rest of the charts in the series are in the archives. They ARE a complete package. If you only studied these charts over the next 36 months...and Fine Art. You need nothing else.
And lastly. Just as we started the 2022 decline in the spring with my “Canary in the Coal Mine” chart...I think now might be an appropriate time to revisit this issue and expand on a few 'thoughts' I've mentioned previously.
I have many more, but really none of them matter all that much until confirmation is given and from my perspective, confirmation is lacking. Hell. Most people believe, probably even most of you...that we're in a new Bull Market.
I do not agree with that assessment. I believe...market pundits are pushing a narrative...hoping it will stick. It will not...is my call.
I recently called a high on the 16th, but...I feel confirmation is lacking despite having reached the middle of my technical numbers for the peak in the SPX(4410(+50/-50))I personally didn’t feel right about it. I still don’t. I’d like to see a retest, I’d really like to see the high taken out and then rejected. In fact...I’d love for the ^GSPC to nail 4,510.
Although, I don’t always get what I like.
Now...the reason for my hesitancy is this. I use a dating sequence in my timing of peaks and valleys...and the 16th either isn’t the high, or I don’t understand the numbers yet. To be forthright...and as you know...I’m not a fence sitter. I truly...am not 100% sure.
Most of the numbers look good. Many of the issues I’m following have finished up their respective ABC’s and I saw many intraday reversals during the latter part of the week. Some of the overseas markets have turned as well, BUT...despite seeing those reversals...I’m not seeing the required follow-thru as of yet. I need to get my eyes on a few more candles before I can call it good.
If things go wrong. They will do so at 4,510. Simply. Step. Aside.
You know me by now. I’m always suspicious at the turns and I’m only after the 80% in the middle…
Arrive to the party late...leave the party early. Clear your head. Rinse. Repeat. Long and Short.
Now. With that said...
“One day does not a new trend make.”
“I’ll judge today, by what I see tomorrow.”
“I’m from Missouri...Show Me.”
I’m going to add one more...
“In all things...Patience.”
For myself. Zero positioning will be sought until after we’re back under 4,310 on the SPX.
Although, some mild cherry picking at the peak in the ^IXIC...may or may not have occurred.
For those who do options. 12 to 15 months is the sweet spot.
"FTW...from my perspective, I've done you a bit of a disservice answering your questions in the manner that I have, which is without illustrations. Therefore...you'll see a post on the thread soon."
From our discussion on the ^VIX...
I also reviewed the other questions we discussed...
I'll add two simple charts and follow it up with 'One Step Ahead'.
Quick comparison from the Tech Wreck in 2000 vs today in the ^DJI...
Then...stretching the triangle as we discussed. Trading range bound while within the pattern. What pattern? See next chart...
I'll ask. How many days from 11.04 to 6.16? As always...please remember. The MAGNET is only the first 'small' step. Like I've said...This isn't a one and done like 2008.
I've also said since day one...The tech stocks are "One Step Ahead" of the broad markets.
That's ARKK on the left...and the ^DJI on the right.
I'll have more when the TIME is right. I see zero reason to get ahead of the market, er, uh...the Fed.
Recession? I planned for a 14 year Worldwide Depression. As far as I'm concerned...we're right on schedule.
Oh...yeah, I forgot. Happy Birthday Will's. You survived your 40th!
Now...only 13 years left.
STOP CHASING UNICORNS!
This give you any ideas?
The final push I discussed at 275 is just about complete. As promised...I'll join you in NVDS when you're back below 400. Target price for NVDA has not changed. 50 bucks...and change.
I noticed accuracy levels in your stock pickings have fallen off since I left PC&A's corral, mr. neighbor. If you keep playing in my playground...you're going to lose a few fingers.
It is all coming into view yet?
I had a larger post this morning, but I felt the message was muddled and didn't bring as much to the table as I intended.
Just too many distractions. Every time I tried to sit down and concentrate on something...I was interrupted.
"Long is strong"? I admire anyone who invests along the lines of their convictions. For me, the only arbiter of truth is the market itself.
I'm going to park this here...
Please ignore the T.L, N.L, T.H, N.H. in the chart...it is something I haven't had a chance to cover on this site.
"Never let a good crisis go to waste" is the first thing that comes to mind.
I'd imagine that a) It's already written, and b) It is full of goodies for the suits(and their friends) and c) Gives the shaft and a small check to the American people.
Essentially a repeat of '08.
Although. As I said further up in the thread and in my "Dust in the Wind" chart...I do believe that will be the misstep.
I'll just say this for now. I believe the "Full Faith and Credit" clause will be tested.
I also believe...it's all been planned.
A Digital Dystopian Central Banker's Wet Dream will be on the table...sooner, than later.
FTW, you know...I just remembered that you weren't around early last year when I spoke of PayPal and Netflix as excellent 'Canary in the Coal Mine' issues and how "Tech was one step ahead of the DJI and the SPX".
Here is a quick chart I made up of FB(Meta). If you compare it with..."Sixteen Times Twelve Is?" and "The Holy Grail" above...it should be able to give you ideas. Ideas that will light your path forward in the Stock Market.
While it is not exactly the topic, nor the reason I'm posting this chart...I will mention...while NVDA is a momentum issue...it also cannot escape this pattern. On the weekly, peak number one is October 1, 2018.
Best of luck.
Ok. Now...THAT was the last chart. Smile...
For now...this is going to be my final chart.
The Holy Grail:
The rules for this formation can be read in the "The Great Reset UPDATED, Companion Chart 1a" below. In fact, for your convenience...I'll just post a copy of the whole series from the beginning.
Since early April, I've given wave after wave of charts. I think this is enough until 3810 is lost in the ^GSPC. Once 3810 falls, I plan on being less and less active until we reach the MAGNET.
I actually never planned on giving market commentary, smile. I'm a goldbug.
At the MAGNET is where I'll be assessing the gold(and silver) situation...and probably update this chart here. Although, none of what I say should come as a surprise...FTW's 'Gold Star' Chart...already light's the path to the Promise Land.
Remember what I said...If the magnet holds. I'll give one final series of charts.
Then...POOF! I'll be gone.
For me, it's not Blue Skies, but Blue Water...
If the magnet doesn't hold? Well...we'll come to that IF it happens. I'm not holding my breath.
At the magnet...when people begin to see 90% declines. Oh, they'll be calling it good when the suits step in to screw the public(for their own good).
Unfortunately...I'll still be shaking my head in disbelief.
Compounded leverage takes more than one stage to unwind.
The Great Reset ORIGINAL:
The Great Reset UPDATED:
The Great Reset UPDATED - Companion Chart 1a:
For those who would like to understand the thoughts behind this pattern. Just search the archives for: "The Pattern!", "The Pattern within the Pattern!", and "Through the Looking Glass". If you can't find one of them, just shoot me a private message and I'll re-post the missing chart.
In 'Through the Looking Glass'...I gave my exact thoughts on what I felt the next decade would entail - all within the confines of the 60 minute chart.
To me. That chart is a masterpiece.
One final chart as we head into the weekend.
It's not over. It hasn't even started yet...
Sixteen Times Twelve Is?:
Over a decade later and the ^HUI is still looking for a bottom...