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dunno about that, but I trust you 😂 What I meant: Just because „the rest of the S&P“ isn‘t baught with both hands doesn‘t mean that the current upmove is invalid or a sign of a late bull. It was even 40, 50, 60 years ago the case that the index is bombed higher just because of a few stocks. Maybe back then it were 15 or 20, now it is 7, ok, granted. Pretty sure IBM went up BEFORE Black & Decker in 1982. But back then Grantham et. al said „no bull, B&D isn‘t baught“. Oh and regarding Campbell Soup: In 1982 you could have baught it at 2, now trading at 52, if you adjust for dividends you baught it for 52 CENTS, that‘s a 100 bagger. Oh and just another thing: Remember in 2002/03 when EVERYONE ON EARTH definitely KNEW FOR A FACT that Nasdaq would go back to its 1994/95 breakout level? It never happened…

Hmm, dunno. Usually at the end of a bull the absolute shit is bought. And the rest of the S&P? Well, there we have names like Campbell Soup. Why should i buy that? Because Andy Warhol painted a picture about that 50 years ago?

Yes that‘s absolutely right!

Thanks a lot Doc! 😎

Doc, could you please have a look at that? Takes a while to work thru the whole thread, but seems to be interesting. Thank you 🙂

I want a merger of Coke, McDonalds, Teladoc and a random insulin producer. Business model of that merged company is to be a one-stop-shop of the whole diabetes chain. First we make folks insulin resistant with all kinds of soft drinks and ultra processed junk food. Then they become fat like a pig. At that point Teladoc comes into play: Fatty Fatman goes to the Doc and tells him:“Doc, I‘m so fat and lazy and my heart beats quite weird, what can I do?“ „Well Fatman, you have diabetes, but we have that amazing insulin jab!“

A major stock, which was already up 130% YTD, bombs 20% higher in the afterlife, beats with a landslide… is this the sign of a badass bear market?

Nvidia up 20% now, absolute mania

Nvidia exploding in the afterlife, beats by a landslide on any measure, up 14% now

Let's say the low in stocks comes A BIT before the high in unemployment

Absolutely!

Yes. Something like "big problems at a major European insurer" would already be enough. Remember. This thing is globally interconnected, it doesn't have to be an american company/bank/insurer for the FED to step in with both hands. The big central banks work together on a daily basis. At any minute in time the FED knows what the ECB/BoJ/BoE/SNB plans/does and vice versa. How deep they would allow the S&P to fall? Hmm, hard to say. Could be a quick one week move where it looses 500 points, then they step in. Where that will be? Who knows. Maybe 3500, maybe 3200, maybe quick dive below 3k? Something like that. We could also see the Covid lows again. But that would simply mean to extrapolate the 2000 bear and the 2008 bear and say that the fall of this bear yet will have the same magnitude. Could be, but has not to be. THE nominal low of the 70s bear was in 1974. AFTER that the shit for the economy and society really began, 1981/82 recession included. Folks often confuse "the real economy" with "the stock market". Job market is lagging, not leading. The low in stocks comes long before the high in unemployment.

What i don't like: This view, that after the ceiling is lifted, the Treasury will borrow like mad and will suck up liquidity by its issuance and therefore stocks will tumble, becomes to prominent. Give it aother week and CNBC will talk about that 24/7. So, therefore, we already know that it will not happen that way. CB's are quite creative. Maybe the BoJ sucks it all up. Who kmows. in the last 20 years I have seen too many "safe bets" imploding...