sandy beach

Nice to have you back!

Kitty scared!

In 2016, Lee Bohl, a Charles Schwab researcher, analyzed market data between 1933 and 2015, and found that, in general, the third year of the presidency overlapped with the strongest market gains.4 The S&P 500, a fairly broad index of stocks, exhibited the following average returns in each year of the presidential cycle since 1933: Year after the election: +6.7% Second-year: +5.8% Third-year: +16.3%<== Fourth-year: +6.7% https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/presidentialelectioncycle.asp#citation-13

JP is going to take a hatchet to Non-banks financials. Private equity and structured finance are about to have a near death experience: 'Chair Powell says the 2020 crisis showed weaknesses in the nonbank sector, and that should be dealt with by structural reforms — not expansions of central bank liquidity provision. "The first order answer has to be changes to the structure of these institutions."'

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That was fascinating FX - thanks!

Amen!

Merry Christmas!

"These involuntary transfers and extinguishment of servicing rights by GNMA and FNMA make RMF the most significant event of default in the government loan market since the collapse of Taylor, Bean & Whitaker in 2011." The first half of 2023 is going to feature an amazing fireworks display in structured finance.

Who owns the mezzanine on the collateralized debt obligations? Lights out in first half of 2023. We're looking at a structured finance weapons of mass destruction - 50-60% recovery when this is over.

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Was it something I said? --JP <Mic drop>

Wouldn't they want to raise as much cash as possible going into the upcoming debt ceiling limit?