Its a kabuki theater or clown show
Trump pause #tarrifs put on Canada due to new investment that will be spend on border... BUT
That was already announced at dec 17
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-safety-canada/news/2024/12/government-of-canada-announces-its-plan-to-strengthen-border-security-and-our-immigration-system.html
So its a show.
SEC STAFF WILL NEED COMMISSION APPROVAL TO FORMALLY LAUNCH PROBES
Lawyers at the U.S. Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) have been told they need to seek permission from the politically appointed leadership before formally launching probes, two sources briefed on the matter said, in a marked change in procedure that could slow down investigations.
During a tariff trade war between countries like the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, certain asset classes and sectors tend to perform better while others suffer. Here are some investment strategies to consider:
Assets to Buy
1. Safe-Haven Assets
Gold & Precious Metals (e.g., Gold ETFs, Miners like Barrick Gold, Newmont Corporation) – Investors flock to gold as a hedge against uncertainty.
U.S. Treasuries & Bonds – Treasury bonds often gain value as investors seek stability.
Cash & Money Market Funds – Holding cash can provide flexibility during market volatility.
2. Domestic-Focused Companies
Companies that rely more on domestic sales than international trade are less affected by tariffs.
Consumer Staples (e.g., Procter & Gamble, Walmart, Costco) – Essential goods are always in demand.
Utilities (e.g., NextEra Energy, Duke Energy) – Regulated industries with steady income.
Healthcare & Pharma (e.g., Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer) – Less impacted by trade wars.
3. Companies That Benefit From Tariffs
U.S. Steel & Aluminum Producers (e.g., U.S. Steel, Alcoa, Cleveland-Cliffs) – Higher tariffs on foreign metals may boost domestic producers.
Defense & Aerospace (e.g., Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman) – Government contracts tend to continue despite trade disputes.
Agricultural Producers (e.g., Archer Daniels Midland, Mosaic Company) – Some food producers may benefit from government subsidies.
4. Alternative Investments
Commodities (e.g., Oil, Natural Gas, Agricultural Products) – Price fluctuations can create opportunities.
Cryptocurrencies (e.g., Bitcoin, Ethereum) – Some investors use crypto as a hedge against currency devaluation and geopolitical risks.
Assets to Avoid
Export-Dependent Companies (e.g., Automakers like Ford, GM, Tesla) – Companies relying on international sales may struggle.
Retailers Dependent on Imports (e.g., Nike, Apple, Walmart) – Higher import costs can reduce margins.
Emerging Market Stocks & Currencies – Countries dependent on trade with the U.S., Canada, and Mexico may face economic pressure.
Would you like a more tailored strategy based on specific industries or personal risk tolerance?
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Chatgpt
"The trade narrative shifts dramatically when trade flows are decomposed into energy and non-energy components.
Last year, Canadian exports of energy products (oil, natural gas, power) to the U.S amounted to nearly $170 billion, or almost 1/3 of total shipments. In contrast, energy accounted for only 6% of all U.S. imports. Put simply, Canadian sources are critical to U.S. energy security.
Remove Canadian energy exports from the equation and the trade story flips. Ex-energy, the U.S. enjoys a trade surplus with Canada of around C$60 (US$45 billion). (Chart 7)
Canada’s trade advantage in energy has been rising steadily in recent years, most recently on the back of the Transmountain Pipeline Expansion (TMX) that, in turn, has sharply boosted Canadian oil exports to the U.S. west coast in addition to Asian markets.
Canadian crude is a key supplier to U.S. refining, predominantly in the mid-West, with a steadily growing share in the Gulf coast. Since many refineries are built to process Canadian sour, heavy crude, it’s difficult to shift away from that feedstock to alternative sources. This is true even from the U.S.’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which is largely comprised of conventional crude. Countries that could fill the gap are Mexico and Venezuela, but the latter would require lifting sanctions. Given Mexico already enjoys the second largest trade surplus with the U.S., this shift in demand would further widen that chasm, potentially allowing it to overtake China in the pole position.
If tariffs were extended to Canadian crude oil, it could lead to an immediate jump in U.S. gasoline prices of as much as $0.30-0.70 per gallon. One of the most price-transparent and inflation-sensitive areas for consumers is the movement in gasoline prices. "
January 29 – Bloomberg (Alexandra Harris): “Hedge funds’ long Treasury positions and repo borrowing grew in 2024, exceeding the peak reached in 2019… Barclays strategist Joseph Abate wrote... As of September, hedge funds’ long Treasury positions reached a record $2.1 trillion. Positions have increased 44% since 2023 and are about $800 billion larger than their 2019 peak. Similarly, repo borrowing increased by $900 billion, or 53%, since 2023. Barclays assumes most of this is against Treasury collateral, but the breakdown is unclear. About 40% of transactions were overnight. Top 10 funds with repo borrowings accounted for 62% of total repo, or about $1.55 trillion…”
Definitely worth pondering: Ten hedge funds with $1.55 TN of repo borrowings, likely most used for levered “basis trade” positions in the Treasury market. Hedge fund “repo” borrowings expanding 53% - apparently over nine months. Sounds like conditions have been much too loose, with the makings to trample “a lot of resilience
Noland