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Everything posted by fxfox

  1. Consumerism won't die. Look at the crazy shit they baught in the 70s Those sauna pants...
  2. Could it be the beginning of the beginning of the beginning end before it even begins?
  3. https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-treasury-auctions-office-16-billion-of-20-year-bonds-at-a-high-yield-of-4780-20231120/ does not confirm the lousy auction of the 30y last week
  4. Doc, please have a look at the Italian 10 year. Seems like below 4.20 it is Sayonara time?
  5. Alibaba and Wal Mart drop stink bombs in pre-market. Consumer very healthy, right?
  6. Cisco and Palo Alto throw hand granades in the afterlife
  7. In 2000-2003 we were not far away from it and in parts of 2008/09 we had deflation. But yes, no say „raging“ deflation like in the 1930s.
  8. Correct. My guess is that the FED will not start some kind of QE again before even a blind sees that we are in a deflation. Under disinflation regime - in which we are already apparently - they will go on with QT.
  9. PPI breaking down. We gonna go directly form inflation to deflation.
  10. The ECB will give in WAY before the FED, 99% sure. 1.10 area ok to short, EMA 50 monthly there.
  11. But the FED could end the program and force the holders out?
  12. Yep. Once the slush fund is empty they gonna end QT. Then they wait a bit and look what the market does. If down, they gonna start QE all over again.
  13. They just rotate between the Top 10 stocks. Today they push up Tesla. On other days Tesla down, Apple up, or Mafia siighlty down, but Amazin.bomb up huge. That‘s how they keep the thing afloat. Easy.
  14. Interesting. Regarding 1987 and the analogies to 1929 back then I was aware of.
  15. The problem with that "How a bear market behaves" is the lack of data series. In modern times there wre like what 5 or 6 bear markets. Thats statistically not significant. That#s why people always come up with "1929" and "1970s" analogies, cause there are no other ones. All the rest - going back to 1700s or ancient times - are for the garbage can. The data is completely unreliable. There is even lots of discussion about he Fama-French dataset and that set is bascially the basis for everyone who backtests data from the 1920s on. I was not around in the markets in the 1970s but I know one thing for sure. "1929" analogies were all over the place. Right?
  16. Automated buying program by Blackrock and other major ETF providers. The magic of indexing: you just gotta buy the Top 10 of big market caps and that‘s it. if the Nifty Fifty of our time will ever fail and fall? Well, if QT and rates at 5% is not enough what is? 10% rates sure, but will we go there? Beneath the surface it burns since almost 2 years.
  17. Plug Power down 40% Yesterday they missed their own outlook they gave the quarter before for the 13th time in a row, THIRTEENTH. That is fraud. Period. Their CEO should be send to Gitmo.
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