Rates at zero, S&P at 4200
Rates at 5, S&P at 4200
Questions?
ANYONE on earth, their dog, horse, step child, grandma and pa said that it is a law by nature that an stock index will be much lower at rates at 5 compared to with rates at 0 and espacially under a regime where the CB reduces its balance sheet!
Where is this effing liqui comming from?????????
The small-cap Russell 2,000 closed at its most overbought level relative to its 50-DMA in its history yesterday at 3.7 standard deviations above. Prior high was in January 1991.
The May 19-23 anal log on the chart of the ES 24 hour S&P futures is on the verge of being crushed. There may be no flush. Instead, the bubbly inflated mass of s... s... uh... s- stocks! yeah that's it! will simply float higher. Clearing 4273 might do it, although bears will have a final opportunity to force it down at 4275. Above that, squeezing will only force it higher in the tract.
And so it goes.
But is there any chance that bears could snatch the smell of victory from the jaws of the feet? Yes, but only if they can hold it here, and then if it drops down to 4254. If it drops below that, then the anal log would still be valid, and it could then really let loose and everything would go in the toilet. The Bulls Are Full of It
I don't know how anyone could see things any other way.
Speaking of working out, looks like the hedgies' record big Treasury market hedge may be working out. But the dealers are still net long. They're always the ones who cause systemic instability and market crashes. Smartest guys in the room, my ass. Watch 3.89 on the 10 year. If they clear it, it's gonna be trouble. Investors Breathe Sigh of Relief But D-Day Is Now
Gold? sigh. Gold Set Up for This Cycle Low
For moron the markets, see:
Gold Set Up for This Cycle Low June 7, 2023
Investors Breathe Sigh of Relief But D-Day Is Now June 6, 2023
The Bulls Are Full of It une 4, 2023
Incomprehensible, That’s What You Are June 2, 2023
Swing Trade Chart Picks – Growing Long Side Gains June 2, 2023
Gold Gets Closer to the Bottom May 30, 2023
Modestly Hedged Dealers, Record Short Hedge Funds Suggest Disaster Ahead May 25, 2023
The Most Widely Forecast Economic Disaster In History May 16, 2023
If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.
If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!
Reminder:
Coming soon to a bank deposit near you.
Date
Security Type
Total Offering
Total Publicly
Held Maturing
Net New Cash or
(Pay Down)
06/13/2023
Bills
$156,000
$120,977
$35,023
06/08/2023
Bills
$123,000
$101,998
$21,002
To say nothing of the $57 billion in net new notes and bonds coming on the 15th.
Investors Breathe Sigh of Relief But D-Day Is Now
Almost no one came here yesterday. Ghost town. Crickets.
Could it beeeeeeeee-eeeee eeeee?
THE TOP? One reason to suspect that they will Make it so, is that the May 19-22 anal log is still working out. This is the hourly chart of the ES, 24 hour S&P fugutures.
The next sound you hear may be what the French would call, Tirer la chaine.
Another reason is that today is day 4 of a 5 day cycle so the odds are as good as they get that the market will take a dump today.
As far as whether that might only be the beginning, only the beginning, whoa whoa whoa etc, I will leave a determination of that, here. But as a tease, here's a 5 hour bar chart of the ES. Make your guesses below.
Now about those massive record hedge fund one way trade bond market hedges. Watch the 10 year yield. If it drops below 3.60, they're gonna start being unwound. It could get wild. Moron that : Investors Breathe Sigh of Relief But D-Day Is Now
For now, th-that's all, folks.
For moron the markets, see:
Investors Breathe Sigh of Relief But D-Day Is Now June 6, 2023
The Bulls Are Full of It une 4, 2023
Incomprehensible, That’s What You Are June 2, 2023
Swing Trade Chart Picks – Growing Long Side Gains June 2, 2023
Gold Gets Closer to the Bottom May 30, 2023
Modestly Hedged Dealers, Record Short Hedge Funds Suggest Disaster Ahead May 25, 2023
The Most Widely Forecast Economic Disaster In History May 16, 2023
If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.
If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!
It's D-Day, one of the most important dates in world history.
The stock market is sanguine.
The May 19-22 anal log is still floating. It suggests a weak rally today. But keep an eye on resistance at 4275-80. If they can't clear that this morning, the 5 day cycle may have another downdraft coming.
Meanwhile, the massive short position that the hedgies have built in Treasuries still hangs over their heads like a guillotine.
Investors Breathe Sigh of Relief But D-Day Is Now
LEE ADLER 1 - LIQUIDITY TRADER- MONEY TRENDS JUNE 6, 2023
The debt ceiling issue has been settled. Investors breathed a sigh relief and bought stocks. But they did it on margin, because the cash liquidity for it sure isn’t there. So we can probably count the longevity of this rally with the fingers of our hands, and it won’t be in months. And probably not weeks either. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
Subscribers, click here to download the report.
Of course, liquidity isn’t a timing device. It merely establishes context. And the context ain’t bullish. Animal spirits and increased leverage have a shelf life, and this one is about to run out. The timing is likely to depend on the onslaught of new Treasury supply that’s about to hit, now that the debt ceiling has gone away for a couple of years. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
In the short run, anything can happen, especially when hedge funds have a record short position in Treasuries, which we have discussed elsewhere. But the liquidity context argues for the rally in stocks to end soon. Timing that is a matter for technical analysis. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
This report tells what to expect, why, and how. You need to know that so that you are prepared to react properly when the time is right. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
My swing trade screens for stock picks have led me to select only buys lately, until this week when I began to tentatively nibble on the short side. The liquidity picture now suggests that we start to look more closely for opportunities to go short, and to put in trailing stops on our long side trades. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
As for the bond market, once the potential for a short squeeze is out of the way, it will be time to get out yet again. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
Subscribers, click here to download the report.
KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality!
For moron the markets, see:
Investors Breathe Sigh of Relief But D-Day Is Now June 6, 2023
The Bulls Are Full of It une 4, 2023
Incomprehensible, That’s What You Are June 2, 2023
Swing Trade Chart Picks – Growing Long Side Gains June 2, 2023
Gold Gets Closer to the Bottom May 30, 2023
Modestly Hedged Dealers, Record Short Hedge Funds Suggest Disaster Ahead May 25, 2023
The Most Widely Forecast Economic Disaster In History May 16, 2023
If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.
If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!
