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  1. Today
  2. I expected BTC to have a serious case of roundnumberitis when it touched 30...but this is getting a little ridiculous. The candles from the 11th and 12th speak loud and clear. I know cattle well...there's a look in the eye when cattle are spooked. It doesn't take much really... Best, TCG oh...and... Nasdaq ended up down 2 70, or...2.35%. Hmm. Interesting. TWTR made a step in the wrong direction today. Below 32.50 on VOL...the deal is over. I called the deal over at the deal announcement. TWTR has solid support at the magnet(20). Below that? No chart history, so no official downtown trajectory. That's when the Rev H&S as a measuring tool comes in handy, although...as mentioned, the measurement is... I'm actually changing the measurement because I could hear dear old dad yelling at me as I was drawing up the chart. If the deal officially falls, the magnet is the initial target...then 10(+2.50/-2.50). What was dear old dad yelling? "You're giving them the end game first...markets unfold, step-by-step." 20, 10, 5, 2.50? Fractal? Something to think about? 72.50? 32.50? What's this all about? Really? Just start adding 2.50, or subtracting 2.50...it will all become clear. TWTR trading at...35? Seriously. Can you begin to see it? Can you really begin to SEE it? Mull this over for awhile...
  3. Doom for the dollar? RRPs are dollars. That's all they are. They are dollars held by MMFs in their RRP account at the Fed. So in a sense, the RRPs are an expression of confidence in the dollar, and lack of same in all other assets. Will gold have its day as an alternative store of value, a money substitute? Maybe. The charts have to do better though. I'll put this out there for those who have an interest. Category: 3 – Gold Trader Weekly update of precious metals stocks and ETFs and the price of gold itself, featuring Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis, with market trend opinions and stock picks. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!
  4. This is completely in line with what should happen as the Treasury pays down T-bills. The way I look at things, it has no meaning beyond that. Markets are not predictors. Neither is this. It's just a technical issue related to T-bill paydowns. When the paydowns stop, and the Treasury starts issuing T-bills again, the RRPs will come down. Will some stay there? Yes, sure. But the RRPs are the quintessential dollar, no different than the FRNs in your pocket, other than they can only be spent when returned to a bank account from the RRP account. Which can be done on a next day basis. If RRPs stay high, certainly I think it will be a sign that money managers have no confidence in asset prices. But they're the point. Asset prices. It's why TA reigns supreme. Chart the asset price, and it's all we need to know. Long or short?
  5. Today...not seeing anything that isn't expected... ^HUI making another attempt at 260, SLV/GLD attempting to fill gaps. In the case of SLV its probing the breakdown area as well, GLD hovering above the KEY(170) as mentioned. UUP drifting towards its KEY(70). TLT catching a strong bid. I see CVNA being tagged for another 10%+ today, where is CVNA in relation to the magnet? SNAP? Magnet? Please recall that I said 4160 would be the "first" point of interest. As in...perhaps an outer band to something like 4210(+50/-50). Best Regards, The CoinGuy oh...and... Current Neutral FFR is 2.35%? Hmm. Interesting.
  6. Could rising RRP at some point be painting a picture of doom for the Dollar? If there is no confidence in anything except Fed's balance sheet, what does that say about most other dollar denominated assets?
  7. Over the past 3 days, the hourly chart of the ES, S&P 500 24 hour futures has become increasingly disjointed and incoherent. This is a symptom of the growing shortage of liquidity. It reflects the inability of dealers and other big players to maintain narrow spreads. The market has no depth because the cash isn't there. It's all in the Fed's RRP fund for MMFs, where money that came out of redeemed T-bills goes to hibernate. That fund, which is essentially a Fed money market fund for money market funds with nowhere else to go, eclipsed the $2 trillion benchmark yesterday for the first time, thanks in large measure to the US Treasury's ongoing campaign of paying down T-bills. The scary part is that money managers either can't use that cash for anything else because they're money market funds, or else they don't want to deploy it elsewhere. Sensible people. As long as that Fed RRP fund keeps growing, or even just stays level, it's bad news for stocks and bonds. I get into that in detail, with lots of charts and explanation in the Liquidity Trader Money Trends reports . It will leave you with no doubt about where all this is headed as time and policy moves progress toward the ultimate climax and denouement of decades of monetary policy mismanagement, malfeasance, and immorality. Meanwhile, back at the hourly sit you a shun as of 5:30 AM in New York, we have this mess. Particularly for the past 2 days. But keep one thing at the forefront. For those two days, a pattern of higher lows and higher highs is and will be intact unless and until the ES breaks 3913.50. All hell should break loose if that comes to pass. Even a rebound from here won't be all that bullish unless they can take out yesterday's high. We're looking at what has so far been a pathetically weak 5 day cycle up phase. Unless it shows more upside momentum today, this goose is cooked. Even Steven in This Week’s Swing Trade Screens May 23, 2022 Stocks Are Ahead of the Curve May 23, 2022 Market Indicators Show Crash Risk Remains Intact May 22, 2022 Gold Miners Make Short Term Bottom, But Wait, There’s More! May 17, 2022 Buys Beat Shorts Again in This Week’s Swing Trade Screens May 16, 2022 Dealer Positions Show It’s Not Getting Better and It Should Get Worse May 15, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.
  8. Yesterday
  9. Let me throw the teacher's hat on for a few moment's... I'm going to ask you a favor. Please take another look at the "Canary in the coal mine" chart I posted on the evening of May 20, 2022. In this chart on the right side in light gray numbers, I added 3,500.00 and pointed towards a possible connection to 35 in the TLT. When Doc first mentioned TLT, I told him I'd start following this issue even though I had taken it out of my rotation, but after viewing the chart I remarked in my initial comment...it likes legs of 35. My favor that I'm going to ask you is this... Please don't let this small tidbit pass you by without at least mulling it over in your mind for awhile. Take it apart...look at it from different angles(of opportunity?). Let me add a few more "coincidences" to fuel the fire... Much like the Nasdaq in the chart above...If I look at the two legs down from the peak in the DJI and cut out the chatter from the ends? Each leg? 3500. If I look closely at the SPX in the same manner? 700, which is as you know from what I've previously mentioned is a 2:1 compression measure or double 350. The key in the UUP is where? The key in the GLD is where? When the ^HUI touched 3"35" it fell apart and the key is at 2"35". Within the historical pattern I showed you recently...the key resistance was double this number at 4"70"(^HUI peak on 7.15.08). It's worth it to make a mental note of this behavior as we go forward because I'll be bringing this topic up again and again and again... What is going on here? That's the answer I'll be moving toward, but first...everyone has to recognize and understand that there is an actual question that needs to be addressed. Hence my often cited..."Can you begin to SEE it now" as illustrated in many of my charts. Best Regards, The CoinGuy
  10. One of the shorts hit the trailing stop. The other two are doing fine with gains of 28% and 33% and trailing stops coming down each day. The 8 longs are doing well, particularly the 6 energy longs that started popping up in the screens two weeks ago. They're starting to pay. Even Steven in This Week’s Swing Trade Screens
  11. Then of course there's always the possibility that everything I say today will turn to shit. 😱😄😄😄
  12. If you review my comments from Friday afternoon May 20th here and briefly shown in the chart here as well as the oh...and... here. I'll conclude my commentary on this topic with this simple chart... And this. May 20th. If you back up two months? What date do you have? Now take away another 24 days for a total of 2m24d. This leaves you where? Best, TCG oh...and... The ^HUI is struggling with 260. Despite the UUP being in a consolidation(and behaving quite nicely) as outlined in the multiple charts I've posted(and one more is coming)...I think we're going to make another poke towards the key levels mentioned in the ^HUI/GLD, which are 235/170 respectively. I consider these issues to be in nothing short of a collapse(at this time), but it should take two or three shots at the KEY levels before heading into what will later be viewed as a market in free fall. Why? The last of the 2011 holdouts need to go...
  13. It doesn't mean much but Ye Olde US Dollar isn't looking so good.
  14. The S&P hourly 24 hour ES fugutures chart seems to have set up a beautiful bullish base. Pass or fail? The answer is 3960. Above that, they'll run it back to 4000, with a measured move objective of 4050-4080. Other than that, it's wait and see for bears. They gotta take out 3905. Then we can talk. For the big picture: Stocks Are Ahead of the Curve May 23, 2022 Market Indicators Show Crash Risk Remains Intact May 22, 2022 Gold Miners Make Short Term Bottom, But Wait, There’s More! May 17, 2022 Buys Beat Shorts Again in This Week’s Swing Trade Screens May 16, 2022 Dealer Positions Show It’s Not Getting Better and It Should Get Worse May 15, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.
  15. I'm going to mention again...ever so lightly. My gut, even before I looked at the chart is still telling me 4160 is the first position of interest. Best, TCG oh...and... I agree Jimbo...and it was the beginning of this behavior that led me to start observing this market from 11.08.21 on. The failure at the second peak...sealed the deal. This bear is coming in waves...it's actually quite interesting to watch the 'rotation of destruction' as it unfolds, it's been a while. For the younger crowd...you can read all the books in the world, but nothing beats the actual experience. Especially...if you're fortunate enough to be on the right side of the trend. Here's a tidbit... Personally speaking...how do I stay on the right side? There's a simple secret to this, I'll pass the full formula on at some point, but I'll tell you this now. I was taught to..."Never, and I mean NEVER invest in anything." Huh? What? Why? Two reasons. Objectivity and Perspective, they're worth more than gold... Then how do you make Coin? All in due time... Here is a Dust in the Wind Companion Chart. I'll have three in the series...in this first chart we'll be taking a closer look at "one of two" advances within the primary structure from each cycle of the topping pattern. You can see the same concept outlined in the chart I posted Friday evening. The chart is only here to familiarize you a little further with the concept of measuring an advance from center to the end. At the end of the day...I'll be going not from top to bottom, but working you towards measuring from center to center. Although, you need to understand what you're looking at first. Again...familiarization and exposure is the best teacher of all. Here is Dust in the Wind for those who don't have it... and here is the companion chart. Dates are being pointed out(and will continue to be pointed out) because they have a direct correlation as to "what you'll see in the future". For now...just bear with me until you can SEE it for yourself. That's not far off. The lightbulb going off moment is closer than you think... If you take the time to learn...this arrow(in your quiver)? No one will be able to take it away from you. Since we're going to be dealing with "the magnet" during the next low, I'm going to end this post with a comment about the magnet and I'm going to echo the wisdom of Jimbo back to you in a different manner. "from the most frothy elements to the most basic." This. Is how they will interact with the magnet as well. If you didn't catch my many comments about what the magnet is and why it is so important? It's nothing more than the March 23, 2020 lows. THAT is the magnet here... As outlined in many of the major charts I've posted over the last two months. Here is one example: The Pattern! And another. Through the Looking Glass: Have you looked at ARKK lately? In relation to the magnet? Think on it... IF you go back and view Through the Looking Glass one more time. "the pattern within the pattern..." box in the upper left corner is how the Nasdaq will resolve itself back to the magnet. A 2:1 compression advance in the DJI/SPX, followed by a 2:1 compression decline in the NDX. The proper term of what I am about to describe to you is a...Fractal Inversion. More on that later, but I'll give you this much now. Look at the advance in "The Pattern!" chart. Notice how it's divided into two advances? Now picture a decline from the peak back to the magnet that resembles 2008 on the back side? Five waves down. Then picture...the inverse. Five waves up on the left side, as in the Nasdaq and a 2:1 compression decline on the back side. Can you begin to SEE it? Now...if I add this. A 2:1 compression advance in the DJI/SPX from the March 2020 low to the January 2022 high as shown in 'The Pattern!' chart...AND...perhaps a five wave decline back to the magnet. The inverse of the Nasdaq. Can you begin to understand where I'm coming from? Hence the comment in Friday's chart, 'Canary in the Coal Mine' about the Nasdaq resting at 11k and what that implies for the DJI/SPX. The market only has so many tricks it can utilize to pull the wool over your eyes. This is a primary one right here. Never forget... Always, be on the lookout for inversions! Always study those inversions!
  16. Last week
  17. THOUGHTS ON THE BEAR We realy have been in Bear mode since Archegos blew up in Feb 2021. Its working its way from the most frothy elements to the most basic. From Spacs to Walmart. Still has a while to run. The wealth transfer vehicles are being washed away by the tide of reality. Bonds are still for bagholders.
  18. As I grow older, this is where I find the most value. In the markets...and...life. Best, TCG
  19. Yeah, yeah. Flattery will get you everywhere. 😄😄 Ciao and bonne nuit, tout le monde!
  20. You are right. One reason why I am drawn to this board and your analysis. This is history in the making and one can take your documented work of how this transpired/progressed and one day, put it in the Smithsonian for all to read. Just hope the Smithsonian is still around for future generations.
  21. I only disagree with the word "coming." Because it's already here! 😊
  22. agree with your assessment. I want the younger generations to have a prosperous life with opportunity abound. However the cycle of greed and overuse of debt will circle around and become a ball and chain for many. The precious metals simply represent freedom of counterparty and systemic risk. My fear is that the walls are closing in and paper assets will not provide much hedge in this coming bear market. I am grateful to read this board everyday. It brings a sense of sanity to this financial mess we are witnessing.
  23. Was going by pure memory....not to shabby. Miss a lot of great participants that have blessed your room over the years.
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