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SiP

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Everything posted by SiP

  1. higher yields are like knives, could kill the market.
  2. whats the reason for drop? It was so nice for bulls. even too nice. Good todays retail sales print? too hot numbers, or maybe a dictator at ME said something.
  3. So the economy is running hot Growth in Federal Tax Withholding Remained Solid in March Federal tax withholding–the combined amount of income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted daily by employers to the U.S. Treasury–continued to increase at a solid, healthy pace in March. We estimate that economywide withholding grew by 5.8 percent in March (compared to the amount in March 2023), about the same as the 6.0 percent growth recorded in February and in line with the range of 5 percent to 7 percent recorded in each month since May 2023, with the exception of a dip this past January (again, comparing all amounts of withholding to those from the same month in the prior year, see the chart below). https://taxtracking.com/growth-in-federal-tax-withholding-remained-solid-in-march/
  4. There suppose to be WWIII @ ME after the weekend. I see that market didnt get the memo. Yen is crashing. Broke 150 USDJPY and keeps marching higher. Im amazed by strenght of US economy and USD.
  5. Central bank liquidity support comes off in 2Q24. Watch out!
  6. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/cia-warns-iran-will-attack-israel-within-48-hours-as-revenge-for-consulate-strike/ar-BB1l58HQ
  7. Lets talk about price, not yield. Traders dont trade yields. traders trade bonds.
  8. There is problem with Healthcare. They didn't agree for new increase in payments. Down. Like unh.
  9. The global conflict in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine, geopolitics and the US/China international fight, the EU Green Deal and many other activities are driving inflation. Got XLE? COPX?
  10. Good PMI manufact. data all over the world, no end of inflation in sight. Bonds went down and yields up by even 5% (DE)
  11. Tesla shares fall after deliveries drop 8.5% from a year ago https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/02/tesla-tsla-q1-2024-vehicle-delivery-and-production-numbers.html
  12. Best series of monthly close for dji since 2020 and spx since 2018. Dji is about to hit 40.000!
  13. The Nasdaq100 index has not fallen more than 2% for the last 106 trading sessions. This is the fifth longest such run since the GFC.
  14. Investors on Wall Street appear to have gone "dry" through the statistically difficult months of February and March. Admittedly, March is not over yet, but this entire two-month period does not count as a particularly successful one on the equity markets. Meanwhile, this period this year has been quite lucky for equity holders. And if we look at the market from the perspective of presidential cycles then statistically the first half of the year, in a US presidential election year, should be weaker than the second half, with the trend taking a flat form. Meanwhile, the start of 2024 is decidedly positive and stands out statistically against other similar periods. So, will the remainder of the first half of the year 'break away' from statistics even more, or will it be a move towards confirming the statistical pattern?
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