Jorma

I think we have to give a hand to your gal Janet. That big shot of liquidity in December worked like a charm.

Debt-Ceiling Saga Puts the Treasury’s Financing Estimates Under Scrutiny Market will take estimates ‘with a grain of salt,’ Cabana says End-December cash balance was $253 billion below forecast https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-27/debt-cap-saga-puts-treasury-financing-estimates-under-microscope?srnd=politics-vp&leadSource=uverify wall That's a Bloomberg headline, but the story is behind the paywall. Let me guess. They won't mention the Treasury paying down, what was it, $200bn in T Bills in December.

I regret mentioning news "House Republicans are mulling an attempt to buy time for further negotiations on federal spending and deficits by passing one or more short-term suspensions of the statutory debt ceiling this summer, including potentially lining up the deadline with the end of the fiscal year Sept. 30." https://rollcall.com/2023/01/25/house-gop-considering-clean-short-term-debt-limit-suspension/ So supply is on the way and when is the only question. The dufus revolutionaries in the House have gotten an offer they can't refuse. Otherwise, when I succumb to the temptation to check the news I always go here. https://duckduckgo.com/?q=world+weekly+news&atb=v348-1&ia=images&iax=images

The 17,000 block of South Division Street right next to Mr. Joe's Truck Salvage.

For anyone suspecting cognitive impairment I recommend visiting my cousin, Dr. Bob's Budget Brain Surgery.

Here's one for you. Did you know that at one time tens of thousands of people knew the Treasury's exact days end balance? It seem that the old Mob gambling 'numbers' games, like daily lotteries now, looked for widely published random numbers as the winning number so players would be confident there was not a corrupt drawing. One method, according to Wiki: led to the use of widely published unpredictable numbers, such as the last three numbers in the published daily balance of the United States Treasury, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numbers_game

Enough of that silliness. Time for the end of week VIX crush.

Ah ha. Tiny coupon paydown on the 31st. $10bn. That's it for coupons. I'm not sure why anyone hasn't noticed for the last 3 months that while the Fed is raising rates that 10year Treasuries are down almost 1%. I guess it's polite not to mention it but really, doesn't everyone know they've lost control of the long end?

It's blocked for me whatever it is. But damn, TNX.

There must be quite a tale to tell about the Treasuries December bill paydown. A story we will never hear. Who made the call? Yellen? Was the Fed onboard? Were they even told before the paydowns were announced? And now this bill bomb cyclone.

The Dollar crush and the VIX crush continue unabated. This seems to be the preferred scenario.

VIX taking aim at single digits?

This whole dollar crash thing looks like a some big trades blowing up somewhere. I suppose the wild yield curve is crushing a few somebodies too. TNX being pummeled.

Energy is everything. Nothing happens economically without energy. Useless information for speculating on any term shorter than years.

Jeff Beck has died. Just an ordinary bloke, who was a musical genius. If we ever have cause to roll out Going Down here again it would be best to use his version and retire Freddy King's.