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A Gorgeous Top Pattern - 4/20/23

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Now all they need to do is break it. So far, as of 5:30 AM ET, they're not quite there. They did managed to edge below yesterdays neckline at 4124, but I'd want to see an hourly close below 4113 before getting excited about meaningful downside. As of now, if the break of 4124 sticks, the measured move implication would be a target of 4080. On the other hand, an hourly close above 4128 would relegate this to another false hope tease play for bears. 

If they break 4113, that would measure to around 4060. In fact a move to 4080 would be enough to break the uptrend that began in mid March. But if they don't break 4113, then none of this speculation about how low can you go would matter. The next question then would be "how high?" 

At the moment, the 5 day cycle projection is 4110. Another cliffhangah!


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Another false alarm, apparently. 

Meanwhile, the 10 year. Treasuries have been rallying (yields lower) since yesterday. If it breaks 3.54, then the n3xt target would be the trendline at 3.51.  As I pointed out yesterday, there's a deluge of cash coming into the Treasury market that should fire up a bid for bonds over the next couple of weeks.

14 hours ago, DrStool said:

Yes turd day's tax haul, the part that they were able to count, was $104 billion. That will be coming back to investors and dealers in the days ahead.  Now the question is whether they just shunt most of it to the Fed's RRP account, or buy stonks, and put it back into the deposit base. 

This is just the beginning of the accounting for the tsunami of cash that came in on Tuesday. There's more to count.

If they drop it below 3.55 here, it would measure to 3.44. But if they don't break 3.55, then something is very, very wrong. Trouble brewing.


Over in the Precious Metals coal mine, the bird's are singing, and it looks like Git Along Little Dogies. It would be surprising if there's follow through. At least in the short run. 


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I can't count how many of these setups I've found in markets all across the world...

Goldman 'might' want to watch that next step...It's a doozy.


340 is key...and as I've already mentioned...in the DJI, 34,000.

Speaking of the whole world.  From my perspective...the whole world is about to come down the back side of the Twin Peak's formations secondary peak...


Into a slow-motion death spiral.


I'm the measure twice, cut once type...

I assure you I've done my research and I don't spit charts out like these unless I'm damn sure of what I'm saying.

We will follow the MOEX in 'price', but not in 'time'.   What do I mean?  "It's gonna take awhile...".

That is my call...and frankly, I hope I'm wrong.

Best Regards,

The CoinGuy


This will be the final time I post this chart.  Very soon here...there will be no further need.


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1 hour ago, fxfox said:

<IF> rocket explodes 3 MIN after launch

<THEN> buy stonks

Well, nothing says "American Made" more than a big piece of expensive equipment, blown to shit.

Didn't used to be like that...

When I was growing up, we had a cabin in the rockies.  Outside, under eaves of the roof, we had a 1950's GE refrigerator (rounded corners, kid trap door handle) where we kept the soda/beer.  In the spring the fridge would be plugged in, and it would run all summer (rain/sleet/hail), never any issues.  In the fall, it would be unplugged for the winter, (30 below with 3ft of snow on top of it) waiting to be plugged back in when we returned in the spring.  The cabin was sold 20 years ago.  So, for the better part of 50 years that refrigerator just worked, inside or outside, never one day of problems.

In the 15 years since I purchased my current home, I have gone through 3 refrigerators at my home, 2 of which were GE Profile and they ALWAYS died after the warranty expired.  (Thank you designed obsolescence)

Not to get into who/where the fridges are actually made, they still have GE's name on them.

I guess my point is, we could still build quality equipment but screwing the consumer is much more profitable.

And before you say "WTF the new rockets are so much more complicated now, then in the past".  I say the old engineers used slide rule calculators and still built a better rocket.

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Do you remember my Reverse Head and Shoulders patterns from last spring in the SPX?

In regards to the ^XOI...I mentioned 'if it can't hold 1800' in the Bear Instruction Manual - 2.0.

I probably should add...if it doesn't react...around...1625, the decline will accelerate.


I'm also watching this like a hawk...


...and this too.


In fact...I think this is an appropriate time to update the Bear Instruction Manual to version 3.0. 

There might be one more revision before I head out.


and...when I do head out...I'll see you at the designated spot in the SPX.



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19 minutes ago, Jimi said:

If you saw their team in action this year, or their stadium, you would know that Oakland should be relieved. But the story says capacity of 35K  for a new park in Vegas? That's crazy. 

I always daydreamed that a big Space X failure would mark some sort of market turning point. Probably not.  If somebody can do balance sheet review of Space X I'm betting it isn't looking so good. 

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I can't post it because I'm an idiot.

But when the 1-month risk-free rate starts flopping around like a freshly landed trout, sorta makes you wonder....

Everyone needs short-term collateral right now, today, this moment...?

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2 minutes ago, Jimi said:

I can't post it because I'm an idiot.

But when the 1-month risk-free rate starts flopping around like a freshly landed trout, sorta makes you wonder....

Everyone needs short-term collateral right now, today, this moment...?

Yes... you have hit the nail straight on the head.

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Yes Jimi...all of the above, plus the thread shrinking to half-size(vertically) and back.  Doc's always run a tight ship...I'm not too concerned.



For those who didn't see my chart from last evening...I'll add it below.  I removed the comment's from last night though...something about going short at the break of the swing.  To be 110% honest...I didn't expect it do so...the very next day!





An example of the behavior discussed above...



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