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Perp Returns to the Scene of the Crime 3/17/23

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14 hours ago, WTF said:

Thanks for the update TCG... Hope all is well with you.

One more time...."Until 3600 is breached on Volume...you're still in the topping pattern in the ^GSPC".

WTF...

I saw in my notes that I gave you a Gold Star awhile back for one reason or another. 

I always give a bonus chart to those I give a Gold Star too...

Here ya go.

Mull it over.  Carefully...

409808516_4thWavesAreABitch-March172023.thumb.jpg.e5fba3489510cd4c8da0db07549f3675.jpg

What sector is leading this decline?  Correct.  Bank stocks...everything else will eventually follow.

With that said...

"Once the MAGNET(2,24(x) to 2,25(x).) in the ^GSPC has been achieved, it is best to walk away and clear your head for the eventual turn in the market, BUT that does not mean the MAGNET is the low." 

Far from it...

Since I cannot recall if you were around in the spring of last year when I explained the magnet...I'll repeat...The March 23, 2020 low is the MAGNET for ALL issues.  The tech stocks are leading the decline and are one step ahead of the ^GSPC/^DJI and have already reached their prospective magnets.  For further information on this topic you could go back into the archives and take a peak at "Through the Looking Glass".

1841677307_Magnet-MArch172023.jpg.ffaf1c8043ebda40d44f0d7713f006f3.jpg

What am I really saying here WTF? 

To sum up...

As the tech stocks(^IXIC) enter into their fifth wave...the ^GSPC/^DJI complex will fall from their lofty position of the topping pattern into their third wave.  Confirmation will come in the ^GSPC as you crack 3600, but only on Volume.

Again.  One Step Behind.  The magnet, when reached...will not be the low.   A retest will be in order...at a minimum.  Although, a nice quick truncated fifth has the highest odds of what really takes place.

At that time...long positions will the most favorable.  For a time...

Take care and I'll see you on the flipside...

TCG

oh...and...uh...

Again.  I'll park this right here...

The level of speculation I've witnessed over the last few weeks...it's nothing short of disheartening.  Most of the issues being ramped...should be closed and eventually will be.

585511256_ThisIS...IT-September242020.jpg.d0bde33ed5aa943e8b6d8cf300b57bd6.thumb.jpg.fc117a66f87939e1ad80d7817fbfb4b0.jpg

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THE APPROPRIATE ANALOG

What is the appropriate analog for the financial events to today.

I think its the S and L crisis of the 1980's......

Where all the thrifts were squeezed between higher deposit rates and all their fixed low rate 30 year mortgages.

Similarly we are having the great NIM (that's net interest margin for you financial ratio afficianados) ) squeeze for the regional banks

Its not only the bonds and mbs they have on their balance sheet.

Don't forget all the other fixed rate loans they have on their balance sheets.

They will all have to be funded at higher deposit rates.

There has been a great disturbance in the matching principal.

Basically the banks went to sleep on duration risk management during ZIRP/NIRP and did not hit the panic button when the FED stopped printing in March 2022.

In other words they actually believed the inflation is transitory propaganda.

Bad mistake!!!!!!!!!!

Regional banks profitability will be crushed.

 

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5 hours ago, The CoinGuy said:

One more time...."Until 3600 is breached on Volume...you're still in the topping pattern in the ^GSPC".

WTF...

I saw in my notes that I gave you a Gold Star awhile back for one reason or another. 

I always give a bonus chart to those I give a Gold Star too...

Here ya go.

Mull it over.  Carefully...

409808516_4thWavesAreABitch-March172023.thumb.jpg.e5fba3489510cd4c8da0db07549f3675.jpg

What sector is leading this decline?  Correct.  Bank stocks...everything else will eventually follow.

With that said...

"Once the MAGNET(2,24(x) to 2,25(x).) in the ^GSPC has been achieved, it is best to walk away and clear your head for the eventual turn in the market, BUT that does not mean the MAGNET is the low." 

Far from it...

Since I cannot recall if you were around in the spring of last year when I explained the magnet...I'll repeat...The March 23, 2020 low is the MAGNET for ALL issues.  The tech stocks are leading the decline and are one step ahead of the ^GSPC/^DJI and have already reached their prospective magnets.  For further information on this topic you could go back into the archives and take a peak at "Through the Looking Glass".

1841677307_Magnet-MArch172023.jpg.ffaf1c8043ebda40d44f0d7713f006f3.jpg

What am I really saying here WTF? 

To sum up...

As the tech stocks(^IXIC) enter into their fifth wave...the ^GSPC/^DJI complex will fall from their lofty position of the topping pattern into their third wave.  Confirmation will come in the ^GSPC as you crack 3600, but only on Volume.

Again.  One Step Behind.  The magnet, when reached...will not be the low.   A retest will be in order...at a minimum.  Although, a nice quick truncated fifth has the highest odds of what really takes place.

At that time...long positions will the most favorable.  For a time...

Take care and I'll see you on the flipside...

TCG

oh...and...uh...

Again.  I'll park this right here...

The level of speculation I've witnessed over the last few weeks...it's nothing short of disheartening.  Most of the issues being ramped...should be closed and eventually will be.

585511256_ThisIS...IT-September242020.jpg.d0bde33ed5aa943e8b6d8cf300b57bd6.thumb.jpg.fc117a66f87939e1ad80d7817fbfb4b0.jpg

"A sword is against her false prophets, and they will become fools. A sword is against her warriors, and they will be filled with terror. A sword is against her horses and chariots and against all the foreigners in her midst, and they will become like women. A sword is against her treasuries, and they will be plundered. A drought is upon her waters, and they will be dried up. For it is a land of graven images, and the people go mad over idols.…"

-- Jeremiah 50:36 The Destruction of Babylon

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