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Perp Returns to the Scene of the Crime 3/17/23

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Was yesterday destined to be a failed breakout? Only the Shadow knows. Stay tuned to the latest episode of Return to the Scene of the Crime on your local Capital Stoolcasting Company radio station. The rest of us will know soon. 

My guess would be that if they get back over 3945 on the ES 24 hour S&P futures then they can establish an uptrend. Bailout or Not, Stock Traders Are Should Give the Fed, Treasury, and FDIC the Finger March 13, 2023


Don't Fight the Fed is the Rule Number One, but the problem is that it's not clear what Fed policy is. The bank rescue has already flooded the system with cash, but it's not by the usual Primary Dealer conduit, so its financial market effects won't be the same as usual. And for now, they've limited the financing to a one year term. It's not, at this point, seen as permanent money. It's more of a bandaid. 

So how do we not fight the Fed if we don't know what the Fed is doing. I'll address that in the Composite Liquidity Update to be posted soon at Liquidity Trader- Money Trends

The Treasury market hasn't decided yet if the bank run crisis will be self mitigating. If the 10 year yield drops below 3.40, it could be. The Fed is now providing unlimited funding for banks to buy Treasuries, but a certain level of public panic would be necessary to keep bond prices rising and yields falling. Systemic Meltdown Under Way As Dead Bodies Finally Start SurfacingMarch 12, 2023


Gold has regained its safe have status, and then some.  Gold Works On High Base March 14, 2023



BTC too. This massive base breakout measures to 34-35k. 


With the Fed flooding the world with USD again, I would expect the EUR to hold at $1.06 and start higher. What I expect doesn't matter. Because the ECB might do something equally stupid and destructive so as not to let the EUR appreciate too much. I don't try to predict what clown central bankers will do. I just want to know how much money they are pumping into, or or rare occasions draining from, the world banking system. 

For now, the market is waiting for a sign from Madame LaGarde. If the EUR/USD falls under 1.05, the target would be 1.00 again. But if it holds and moves up, first 1.10, then da moon? 




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Rebound at the open means it's still a valid breakout, with a conventional measured move target of 4035. 

Only the beginning. Only the beginning. Whoa whoa whoa uh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh. 


To end the threat of extinction, bears must retake 3910. 

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I went pretty much to cash a few weeks ago but then there was a flurry of long signals so I dipped a toe in the water.  Ouch! Had to retract digit sharply, fortunately only losing a toenail and not the whole toe.  Ultra cautious now and my watchlist has gone from 800 stocks a few months ago to the current 400 and they're not looking all that bullish.  All Ords is on a one-way trip south at this stage.

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22 minutes ago, sandy beach said:


Which is fortunate for insiders, because the increasing urgency betrayed by examiners signaled the need for insiders to sell their shares, and monetize their equity before its collapse.

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Strang days in the markets (BTC and Tech are flights to safety during times when there are runs on banks?).  Uncertainty about which macroeconomic environment we are in is causing mass confusion amongst the algorithms that are actually doing the majority of the buying and selling.  When they all get on the same page, we are going to see some fireworks up or down.

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The bailouts of SVB, Signature, First Bank, Credit Suisse all reveal the fetid fragility of the system.

The bailouts of SVB, Signature, First Bank, Credit Suisse all reveal the robust resilience of the system.

Place your bets.

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March 30th...

Passing through....just want to step in here and remind you of what I previously posted on several occasions.

"When gold begins to travel inverse to the broad markets...it will be a short-term phenomena(deception)...don't buy into it."

It's not all bad in gold though...

Since I'm here...I'll toss this out there.  874792093_Just...DoubleIt.-March172023.thumb.jpg.bcdbf18547ffc853e2207bcde37479d5.jpg

Won't be long gentlemen...

Best of luck...

The CoinGuy


While I'm here....The SPX needs to hold the swing point at 3800.  Personally speaking...I'd like to see us head up to the top of the range once again and give us a clean pattern completion...although, the Twin Peaks formation doesn't require it from here so it's anybodies guess. 

I'm sitting and patiently waiting for the swing point to break on volume.

No need to repeat my case....2,240 to 2,250 will be touched...soon.


I think Shania can say it it best...Dance with the one that brought you.  Although...Ol' CoinGuy might add...despite "Pattern Phase Distortion" being present in the pattern from the October 13th "suspicious" low.  The pattern...is...intact. 

Only an advance above 4300(on Volume) would break the pattern.


Why the distortion?  Election narrative manipulation?  SPR sales to China? DJI manipulation?  Do you really have to ask?

SIVB is nothing more than an orchestrated signal to "misstep with intent" to subjugate. 


UCC Guidelines update eh?  You better understand this...CBDC acceleration.

I will repeat.   The misstep will be intentional.


Something I didn't mention when posting the "Dust in the Wind" chart originally is this.   See the first decline in 2018?  A straight crash...and repeated in 2020?  Then, the second decline?  A pause to refresh before crashing yet again.  I know you're all familiar with the rule of alternation so I don't feel as though I need to fill in the blanks.  Just use 1250...and a little imagination...it'll get you there.

Almost forgot...

Remember this chart of the ^XOI?  This was the day I called the high...we've had two attempts to overcome the June 8th peak only to set up a "Right Side Dominant"  Twin Peaks formation(see next chart).  


Pay attention to the "compression" in the chart...it gives you the answer to the question you're not asking yet.


To Conclude...

When I was reviewing the posts over the last few weeks to see what topics were being discussed...I noticed the forum has become a fan of anniversaries.


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We interrupt this program to bring you this special bulletin. 

We regret to inform you that the chart pattern of the past 6 days on the ES hourly is still bullish. 


We now return to our regularly scheduled program, As the World of the General Days of Our Stool Hospital Lives Turns. 

Bailout or Not, Stock Traders Are Should Give the Fed, Treasury, and FDIC the Finger March 13, 2023

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If you presuppose that the credit risk story has to run a natural course to the large money-center banks, then we should be purchasing 5-year credit default swaps on the (currently) fortress-names like BofA, Goldman, JPM - for the eventuality.

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