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Jimbo

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Jimbo last won the day on August 12 2023

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Doctor of Stock Proctology

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  1. INTERESTING FACTOID US Bank deposits peaked in April 2022. Just above 18 trillion. Just as the FED stopped QE. I see correlation.
  2. WHERE WILL THE LIQUIDITY COME FROM??? Now that the RRP is mostly history. I presume the liquidity to plug the budget deficit will mostly come from bank deposits??? Or will it come from the bank reserves at the FED. There is still 3 trillion of these. Are they next in line to be drawn down????
  3. ON THE MARKET "TOPPING" OUT IN 2025 Costco has a market cap of $439 billion and free cash flow of $6.6 billion. Thats a MP/FCF ratio of 66. Complete insanity.
  4. Gold....a chain analysis 1/ Money goes from rrp to treasuries. 2/ US govt gives money to citizens. 3/ Citizens buy stuff from China. 4/ China buys us treasuries.....well...not any more. 5/ China buys gold....as do other CB's. And gold lives happily ever after....for the moment. Gold has become a currency substitute and a preferred balance sheet asset for CB's. It's a high trust asset for a low trust world.
  5. THE CONTINUOUS VARIABLE DEFAULT GAME 1/ CVD stands for continuos varaible default....the FED by printing has enabled the US Government to continuosly default on its debt. It completely obviates the need for a "hard" formal default. 2/ Gold did really well in 2024....27% rise. 3/ The defecit is a liquidity drainer and it's not going anywhere.
  6. THE YEN CARRY TRADE Even Uncle Warren has gotten in on the act. I went through Berkshire's annual report a couple of years ago. Found they has borrowed $500 million in yen at........1%. That money is sitting in Berkshires short term cash pile..... ST treasuries earning 4.5%. In the meantime Japanese inflation is 3%. A nice little earner indeed.
  7. THE YEN RUG PULL So the Yen carry trade is back on. Didn't take the BOJ long to cave in to reality. All that Government debt has to be inflated way. Goodbye Yen. Although Im sure the BOJ will try and rug the Yen carry traders sometime in the future. Where is the Yen carry trade ETF?????
  8. THE FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY RUG PULL Without US Government expenditure restraint the FED's QT lacks long term "credibility". Thats why the 30 year mortgage is above 6%. The 30 year MBS is a strait gamble on US Government fiscal responsibility. While gold is a strait gamble on US government fiscal irresponsibility. A lot of players have placed their money on continued fiscal irresponsibility. Choose wisely!!!
  9. The us dollar rug pull Seizing the Russian foreign currency reserves has really put the fire under gold prices. Does that make it a gold anti rug pull!!!
  10. TRUMP MEDIA The lock up ends in September. As for the stock price. Yes....its not pretty. Not pretty at all.
  11. EXPLODING CARRY TRADES First the short volatility trade blows. Then the Yen carry trade blows. The long magnificent 7 trade is blowing up. What next???
  12. THE DOMINANT OPERATIVE PRINCIPLE When fear replaces greed as the dominant operative principle.
  13. STOCKS Yes the party seems finaly over.
  14. DEAR DEERE DEAR Looked at Deere's financials Stock over valued at $370 Deere is rapidly increasing debt (now at $63 billion) to buy back shares and keep the stock overvalued..... For how long can Deere keep on doing this???? When the music stops the stock will be much lower. It reminds me of GE buying its overvalued shares..... We know how that turned out.
  15. THE MEME PUMP For want of a better word..... Just felt "Cartoonish" Not so much liquidity around now days as there was in 2021. The difference between QE then and QT now. And what there is has gone into pumping crypto!!! Or is in ST Treasuries. Or is already in stocks and bonds. The broader stock market seems to be running out of puff.
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