Jimbo

VERY STRANGE BOND CURVES Something does'nt add up.... Why is the treasury curve inverted whilst the corporate and municipal curves are not????????? Strange just strange Someone is playing games.......

WHEN NARRATIVES DIE Reading great book "Narrative Economics" by Robert Shiller. Crypto is a dying narrative..... As all the dumb money gets drained away..... So onto the next false narrative....... Onto the next "magic box that will make you rich but you can never open it or the magic will disappear" (hmmm this sounds like a good Hans Anderson story !!!}

RENDER CEASAR (Rather than render unto ceasar) I read a good book over xmas "The Ceasars Palace Coup" About the banrupcy and fight fo the assets of said company. So I decided to look at the companies financials..... When it wen't bankrupt the last time it had 24 Billion in debt. It now has 26 Billion in debt!!!!!!??????? Talk about a stable financial structure!!!!....Not All its operating income goes on interest payments. Still has a market cap of 10 Billion. Can't wait to read "The Ceasars Palace Coup 2.0".

2022.........THE YEAR THE FEDIVERSE WENT AWAY Yes ....the Fediverse (TM) went away in 2022. Too much reality has stunned the bond and stock investors. They seek greedily for another blue pill....... Metaverse anyone??????? Can't wait for the sequel "Return of the Fediverse" Director...Printer Jay Producer....Pivot Pictures.

IT'S WHAT YOU AVOID THAT MATTERS Avoiding REITS and Bonds in 2022 was a very good idea.

THE TESLA CULT MEMBERS They were the exit liquidity...... Rest in peace.

THE FEDIVERSE VS THE METAVERSE Who wants or needs to inhabit the metaverse when the FED created a financial fantasy world out of the real world....the Fediverse. If META chucked the metaverse the stock would probably double. The current lack of printing is simply a welcome return to reality. Printing is belief....fantasy. The ominus spending bill not good for stocks and bonds....crowding out effect.

2022........THE YEAR OF CRAZY We saw a lot of craziness in 2022 1/ People thinking bonds were a good investment after the FED had inflated a large portion of thier real value away.... 2/ Someone paying $44 Billion for chatter.....just plain crazy..... 3/ Anyone thinking Tesla was a good investment..... 4/ Face book changing its name to Meta......and spending a vast amount on something people really don't want..... 5/ Anyone sending ther money to the Bahamas to buy crypto....just plain crazy..... 6/ Anyone who thought SPACs were still a good investment...... Yes it was the year of crazy.....

THOUGHTS ON 2023 2022 was nice from a bear perspective....... I can't see 2023 being much different..... The big caveat being the pivot of course.... Can't see the printers in the Eccles buiilding deviating from weak QT until something breaks that they don't want to break. They are quite happy to see crypto carried out on a perp walk....... The GFA's are at the top of the sacrifice pyramid....... BBB corporates......not so much....... Notice how they use the synthetics to guide the asset markets in the short term.... A bear rally gets to boisterous.....they come out with the SQT (synthetice QT) A down gets too nasty...they come out with the SQE. They are using the synthetic for short/medium directional guidence to smooth out the bumps.

THOUGHTS ON BANKS Every cycle its always something different that sinks the boat..... In the 19th centruy it was usually loans to railways.... In the 30's it was real estate losses....... In the 70's it was loans to South American Governments In the 80's loans for junk bonds and US real estate and oil companies. In the 2000's it was subprime.... In the 2020's its losses on treasuries thanks to the big print and then the lack of the big print. Its always something new.

JUST THE SAME OLD ACT Jay just doing his synthetic QE mime show........ To go along with the not much real QT show. It's the lack of printing that has deflated the asset markets. The QT has been small and rather insignifcant.... Until they actually go back to real QE I can't see a bull market developing. Not with all the defecits and crowding out effects. The GFA's will continue to deflate. The higher bond prices have casued a lot of damage in the financial system. We just can't see it....yet.

THE EXIT LIQUIDITY FILES If you buy a greater fool asset and you don't know who the exit liquidity is............ Then you are the exit liquidity.

WHAT IS THE MOST VALUABLE ASSET IN A FIAT REGIME????? What is the most valuable thing in a fiat regime.... Its not the currency.... That eventualy becomes worthless... And it costs nothing to create the paper.... And even less to creat the electronic book entry...... No the most valuable thing in a fiat regime is...... Answer : Its the exit liquidity. And what is the exit liquidity under a fiat regime????? Its the ability to print and inflate the Government's debt away. And who provides the exit liquidity. All the bagholder/bondholders.

YOUR PAVLOV TRAINING HAS BEEN COMPLETED Notice how the FED has over the past few years trained the asset markets to respond to synthetic QT and synthetic QE. Rather than to respond to the real QT and QE. Why the training? Well synthetic is much more flexible than the real. Your can turn it off and on in a microsecond with a lot less consequences for the real ecopnomy. RE the FED losing money. Many banks are in the same position. With a large portfolio of bonds yielding low rates. And having to pay higher rates on their deposits. Not pretty. Not pretty at all.