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Everything posted by Jimbo

  1. WHAT IS THE MOST VALUABLE THING IN CRYPTO?????? Its not the coin....thats obviously worthless. Answer: Its the exit liquidity!!!!!!!!!! Without that the insiders can't dump their worthless native token for real money. That's why they pay internet influences a small fortune to pump their coin. Thats why they run their exhchanges at an operating loss to attrack traders and their associated deposits. Thats why they burn the VC's capital to subsidize trading. Thats why they then use the deposits to pump and price support the native token while they cash out.
  2. THE CROWDING OUT EFFECT Issuing an avalanche of Government debt while the Central bank does'nt print is called the crowding out effect. Stocks get quite cheap during this process. Like in the 70's. It's heaven for value investors. A large number of overleveraged corporates will need to be saved by someone.
  3. TRAINING THE MARKET DOGS And so the F$ED is now pumping out the synthetic QE. All to train the market dogs.... Constant re-inforcement....the reward....the doggy treat of a quick market up. What quadrant are we in The real QT, synthetic QE quadrant ..... We have left the real QT synthetic QT quadrant behind... The best quadrant for short sellers. But stocks still overvalued and should be trading at 3000. SiPs great chart above suggests we will eventualy get there. The FED has become quite tricky Not only do you have to contend with sudden changes from QE to QT and from QT to QE You have to contend with sudden changes between synthetic QE and synthetic QT as well. The FED likes to really mix it up........ Both at the physical and psycological level. All in order to confuse, bamboozle and confound Mr Market. Notice how they rolled out the synthetic QT in the middle of 2021 which was followed by not much real QT in 2022. Now they are rolling out the synthetic QE at end 2022 to be followed by....... Probably not much QE in 2023.
  4. WHAT BEAR MARKET Altria is down only 4% this year. Add in the 8% dividend and you would actually be up owning this stock this year. What Bear Market???????
  5. AND THE WINNERS OF 2022 ARE: 1/ Shorters/sellers of the long bond. 2/Shorters/sellers of stocks. 3/ Buyers of energy/resource stocks. 4/ Shorters/sellers of crypto. And so onto the next game........
  6. AND THE WINNERS OF 2022 ARE: 1/ Shorters/sellers of the long bond. 2/Shorters/sellers of stocks. 3/ Buyers of energy/resource stocks. 4/ Shorters/sellers of crypto. And so onto the next game........
  7. AND THE WINNERS OF 2022 ARE: 1/ Shorters/sellers of the long bond. 2/Shorters/sellers of stocks. 3/ Buyers of energy/resource stocks. 4/ Shorters/sellers of crypto. And so onto the next game........
  8. BULL .....BEAR.......WHATEVER Neither a perma bull nor perma bear be... Just be right....which is difficult enough.... Re zero hedge...the comments section is deeply amusing for anyone who likes laughs. The comentors basically spend their enitre time insulting each other.
  9. SOME PONZI RATIOS Nike: Intrinsic value 70B Ponzi value 95B Price 166B Ratio ratio 95/165 or 0.57 57% of Nike is just hot air. Adidas Intrinsic value 40B Ponzi value - 16B Price 24B Ratio -16/24 or -0.66 Yes...a negative Ponzi ratio Adidas trading 66% below intrinsic value. Value investors should invest in stocks with negative ponzi ratios. ETF suggestion A negative ponzi ratio ETF Say stocks with ratios below -0.5 Note we can then determine the "Ponzi differential" between the two stocks as 0.57--0.66 Or 1.23 ...123%. i.e. if the two stocks eventually trade at their intrinsic values you should get a 123% outperformance by buying adidas instead of Nike. You could use this to create a Long/short ETF based on Ponzi differentials say over 1 or over 0.5
  10. THE PONZI CINEMATIC UNIVERSE Just as comic book heroes have expanded into a cinematic universe. The concept of the Ponzi scheme has expanded into a ponzi financial universe. If you look closely enough you can find a ponzi element in almost any asset. Assets can have an intrinsic element value and a ponzi value which combine to make up the asset price where the price exceeds the intrinsic value. In 2021 almost all bonds and stocks had a very large ponzi value....in many cases exceeding the intrinsic value of the asset. You can thank the FED for that. Excess liquidity drives the ponzi value. You can then derive a Ponzi ratio for an asset... The ponzi value of the asset divided by the intrinsic value of the asset.
  11. THE NATVIE TOKEN SCAM Looked at the FTX native token charts for FTT and SRM. An obvious price support operation was undertaken to prop up the tokens price from late May 2022 to early November 2022. (cant see this mentioned anywhere on the internet.......) Keeping the prices steady ...would cost a lot..... Who did this....best guess Alameda...... Where did they get the money to do this....best guess loans from FTX... Where did FTX get the money....best guess its the depositors money. So where did all the depositors money go....best guess ...eventually to the sellers of FTT and SRM during this period Will the liquidators persue them....good luck with that.... Unless the liquidator can use all the Madoff case law to establish a ponzi scheme was being operated and claw back money from the native token sellers as they were "net gainers" from the ponzi....the money is gone. Identifying the sellers will be difficult. The native token acts as the wealth transfer vehicle. Its what I call a "token ponzi"
  12. STRANGE FACTOID The tech stocks leaders in Australia still very overvalued on fundamental measures Wisetech, Xero, Computershare, Altium. Where is the Australian tech leader inverse ETF when you need it. Name of ETF for marketing purposes: The Bushranger ETF
  13. THOUGHTS ON THE LONG BOND The easy short money has already been made shorting the long bond. The risk/reward equation.....in my opinion......its just not worth it. This is not a high probability trade any more.
  14. NIKE FACTOID Price....$164 Billion Value....$70 Billion Price to value ratio 2.34 Overvaluation ratio 1.34
  15. The Trouble with Banks They have trillions in treasuries and MBS on their balance sheets. Holding them at hold to completion values....no mark to market for them. Think of the enormous losses they have not realised. They are going to have to pay way more on their deposits. But they are not going to get way more in interest on these bonds.
  16. THE CRYPTO BANK MAN RUN Falling one by one.... Yes the crytpo banks are being run out of asset town. There balance sheets full of worthless native tokens. The liquidators will need to FTM That's follow the money...... Its all about "Return of the native" Who were the native tokens originally issued to..... (my guess the original VC investors who put capital in and the company founders) for how much.... and who sold them.... and what were they sold for.... Those are the real issues. The liquidators need to really concentrate on getting a return of funds from the original native token holder owners.... Because they are the ones who have ended up with the money. If the liquidators dont do this then ultimate recoveries will be very poor... 10 cents on the dollar poor. Everything else is just absurd Kabuki theatre.
  17. LAWYER FEST 2023 The collpase of the GFA's (spacs, crypto) will be a complete lawyer fest in 2023.
  18. THOUGHTS ON THE BURRY He is always two steps ahead of every one else when he really needs to be just one step ahead of every one else.
  19. WHAT IS VALUE.......PART N+1 An asset with intrinsic value has an "Internal Value" the NPV of cash flows. A GFA...Greater Fool Asset (all of crapto) has an internal value equal to zero, but is does have in a manner have a real "External Value" equlivalent to its sale price. But the value achievement is entirely dependent on a sale of the asset. So the value of a GFA is really the sum of two values ...the sum of (Internal value = 0, plus ...external value = sale price). But the external value does not really belong or attach to the asset itself as it can only be achieved by selling the GFA. So the GFA is only really an "option" on achieving an "external value". The external value really attaches to the owner of the asset (as they exercise the option) and not the asset itself!!! As the value is decision dependent. While the GFA is owned it has no value. And when the asset is sold the value attaches to the owner not the sold asset!!!!! So the value really just transfers from owner to owner with the GFA really being a "psycological state" cipher inserted in between the owners to represent a time and value differential. The GFA in its purest form is a "psycological state/asset" Alter the phsycological state of the GFA, then you alter its price, and you alter the time/value equation. Thats why you get constant propganda....mantras.....endlessly repeated by "gurus" in the media such as Bitcoin will go to $100,000 by the end of the year etc etc..... The time/value equation is effectively your ROI on your GFA. Investors should stick to assets with "Internal Value" and avoid GFA's like the plague. (but we know they wont dont we....) Speculators can make money out of GFA assets with "External Value" if they know what they are dealing with...assets that in the long term are going to be worthless.
  20. STRANGE DAYS Elon pays $44 billion for chatter Its only worth about 8. Crazy days indeed. lnflation still 8%....ten year treasury should be 11% Only 700 basis points above where it currently trades. There is still too much craziness in the system. The numbers still do not add up correctly. Lets face stark reality. The FED was the greatest enabler of ponzi schemes and frauds in history.
  21. MORE THOUGHTS ON CRAPTO The blockchain has some uses. Crypto has some uses as a medium of exchange. But most crypo just used as a pump and dump ponzi scheme which appears legal unlike the normal illegal ponzi schemes. They appear legal as they sell something with a price (but no intrinsic value) called a token/coin. Thats why they all create there own token....so they can sell it to outsiders and cash out. Once the internal token loses value its game over. Crypto is great for insiders and speculators who make there money buying low and selling high. Its terrible for so called investors or hodlers as they are called who buy ....hold on....and lose everything. This is a very similar process as the other greater fool assets such as spacs and meme stocks.
  22. ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST....FTX Its just so much fun watching the crapto complex collapse little by little The FOMO has been replaced by FOLI... Thats "fear of losing in" for those who don't know ...the opposite of FOMO. The fear of loss by remaining in instead of out. The pump is all FOMO and the dump is all FOLI Think of the whole crypto madness as a giant phsycological sine wave powered by FED printing and a powerful industrial scale internet propaganda complex. If printer Jay hadnt gone monetary cold turkey it would still be alive and thriving.
  23. THE CAT NEEDS TO SLEEP The FED should be conducting a Quantitative Null policy...the pause....and not distorting the market. Anything else is simple interference in asset markets. Its still enough for the market to still go down.... Then the focus would shift from blaming the FED to blaming the US govt defecit. Something I think the FED would welcome.
  24. CENTRAL BANKS DE...EQITISATION SNB AND CS Yes...the reckless gamblers are being bailed out yet again.... Standard Central Bank operating procedure..... In the process the equity of the central banks basically gets transferred to the counter parties of CS et al and the other TBTF banks.... Thats the true beauty of entering into winning trades with the Too Big To Fail crowd Your counter party is really the central bank. No risk of counter party failure. Of course this de-equitizes the central banks...as someone always has to pay.
  25. THE SCHRODINGIAN FED CAT Consider the FED as a cat.... In a box..... The door is closed..... It has two levers it can pull..... One says.... QE...the market lives The other says....QT....the market dies What is "pause"..... The door opens to reveal that the cat is asleep.
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