DrStool Posted January 31, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 Just broke through the return to the scene of the crime trendline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted January 31, 2023 Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 and there is that End of Day Jam Job...... right before "FED" day........ and End of Month, to paint that "January Effect" tape....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 31, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 45 minutes ago, TurdButter said: If the Fed wants to really reverse inflation, which has been heavily concentrated in financial and real estate assets for 25+ years, it will HAVE TO 'surprise' the markets sometime, beyond the J hole mild rebuke. There's also been a theory,among some non-affiliated anal cysts, that the Fed, especially Powell, wants to not only destroy the 'Fed put' but also substantially loosen the relationship between the real macroeconomy and the markets. 'Surprise' needed for this too. To do the above, they'd need a 50 bp rate hike, a 50% increase in QT pace and a verbal throat punch of the equity and credit market. Buy more gold if not. The Fed merely follows the market on rates. It doesn't dictate rates by dictum. It influences rates by directing the supply of money. The other side of the equation is demand for credit. And it will be sharply reduced in the months ahead due to the debt ceiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 31, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 Well. I had some recovery today. Push comes to shove tomorrow. On that note, from nice Nice France, I bid you bonne nuit et bonne chance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted January 31, 2023 Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 10 minutes ago, DrStool said: The Fed merely follows the market on rates. It doesn't dictate rates by dictum. It influences rates by directing the supply of money. The other side of the equation is demand for credit. And it will be sharply reduced in the months ahead due to the debt ceiling. When demand for credit goes down, banks lend less. So less money is created and the economy can‘t grow. This could only be offset by the FED starting QE again, or some type of it. so under these circumstances Poopwell normally would have to announce at least a pause im balance sheet reduction. As we know the FED made many mistakes in the past, so why not tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 31, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 Why speculate and waste brain cells on what you think they'll do. Inflation is already dead. I've shown you the data. It's kaput. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted January 31, 2023 Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 6 minutes ago, DrStool said: Why speculate and waste brain cells on what you think they'll do. Inflation is already dead. I've shown you the data. It's kaput. Yes right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TurdButter Posted January 31, 2023 Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 How does the 90 day bill rate vs Fed Funds look now? Haven't seen that chart for some time. And equity, bond and real estate prices remain inflated vs earnings,dividends,coupon rates and incomes. Still plenty to squeeze out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted January 31, 2023 Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 21 minutes ago, TurdButter said: How does the 90 day bill rate vs Fed Funds look now? Haven't seen that chart for some time. And equity, bond and real estate prices remain inflated vs earnings,dividends,coupon rates and incomes. Still plenty to squeeze out there. gold is overrated. even own BTC, its better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted January 31, 2023 Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 1. Inverse H&S - check 2. Break out from the bear trendline - check (but could turn into a fakeout) 3. Forming a higher high -- in progress (needs to move above 4177 to check this point) 4. Recent poll -- 65%+ think the breakout is fake and new lows are ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 2 hours ago, SiP said: gold is overrated. even own BTC, its better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TurdButter Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 'Recent poll'? Of whom? By whom? Asking what? Since the S&P just eased past that downtrend line, seems unlikely a useful poll' could have been designed, conducted, analyzed and publically released so soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted February 1, 2023 Report Share Posted February 1, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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