That goose must be near to burnt by now.
And remember, Fed follows the market so if Fed cuts Fed funds target, it's because the money market went there first. 90 day bill still 5.39%, big inversion to 10 year.
I believe it was a couple times in mid-May, same general comment maybe different words.
I think a deflationary crash is certainly possible, we've gotten debt levels to absolutely crazed levels with the frenzy of the last few years and in no way is there enough cash flow to continuously cover it, and that will get worse in a secular trend of rising rates. And the economy of the last few years would certainly seem to fit a crack up boom. I remember the 70's as a kid, didn't get started on money mangling until literally a month after the big 1982 low. That's probably the preferred outcome by the them, but at this scale it may be real hard to avoid deflation- and I think Central Banking overall is the biggest bubble still standing.
Dr., about six months ago you made some written (in a publication piece not chat)comments a couple times like 'financial plates are having tectonic movements unlike any in 95 years' - paraphrasing of course but the remarks clearly indicated a 29-30's sort of ultimate outcome. I recall them because they were a statement not typically seen; they also probably a source of some jabs you got from the early summer rally just after. Is that still your expected type of outcome(or was that somehow a misreading)? Tanks.
Shocked!!! to hear that untoward dealings by highly respected and responsible individuals could occur!
Actually I've thought that a supersecular ultralong term bottom would not occur until Warren the Weasel's reputation was fully ruined and he'd kicked the bucket.
And another story right by that one had his sidekick Charlie Chuckles pimping AAPL and GOOGL. Must think it's 2010.
Empire costs squirreled away throughout the budget and black box spending isn't seen anywhere.
And the 'woof' might be hacking up a hairball.
It's been a long time and memory is fuzzy but starting to get an "87-ish" kinda vibe.
If/as the yield curve steepens, buying bonds out to 3-4 years is probably the least worst thing to do.
Simple Ewoof suggests we're in 5 of a 5th down, so actually a short term low should be soon.
Spittle flecked rants are never good for business. Guiding the energy to something a huge majority of citizens actually want-slashing US Empire costs-would be productive and save taxpayer resources.
Nothing like panic for shocks now. No panic, but growing irritation and 'concern', in debt markets.
But if institutions- banks, insurers, pensions-had to publically mark to market their bond portfolios- complete and utter freak out. Guns, dope 'n fuckin' in the streets!
The real buying opportunities are when there's crap in the pants-fear so high you can smell and taste (metaphorically)it. There was a technician decades ago named Mendelssohn at Morgan Stanley who developed a fear index, more intermediate to longer term, that he called the ' Diaper Index' to indicate significant fear levels. I don't believe we're seeing any significant fear at all yet-some blathering about rates not rising any more actually. We're not even at fear levels seem a year ago, or even earlier this year at the SVB implosion, never mind big lows in the March's of '20,'09,'03.
