DrStool Posted January 31, 2023 Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 As is so often the case for FOMC meetings, the market has moved to a critical technical inflection zone, prepared to go either way. In the very short run, today is the fourth day since the last cycle low, and the previous cycle lasted 4 days. The hourly oscillators are in a bottoming zone. The 5 day cycle projection is around 3090. So a few more points, and we'd have a perfect setup for one of our very short term cycle lows. On the other hand. On the two days of the meeting not much usually happens. The real action starts when Dr. Jay opens his pie hole and starts spewing shit. As to a liquidity explanation for yesterday's selloff, we have one ready. The US Treasury sold $51 billion in T-bills last week that settle today against a $10.5 billion coupon paydown, for net issuance of $40 billion. That's going to leave a mark. Another $9 billion in net new T-bills settle Thursday. That should end that. From here, we should see a steady diet of, if not outright paydowns, at least non-issuance, as the debt ceiling restricts issuance. Of course, Dr. Yellen and Co. will play games with internal government funds to allow coupon issuance to continue as Mr. Minuschin did in the last go round. For moron the markets, see: Swing Trade Screen Picks – Bulls Win This Week January 30, 2023 Stock Market Heads for the Super Bowl – Oddsmakers Pick the Bulls January 30, 2023 Gold Takes a Breather January 27, 2023 Composite Liquidity Should Be Bearish, Here’s Why It’s Not Right Now January 26, 2023 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Energetic Buys and ShortsJanuary 23, 2023 Nothing is BrokenJanuary 23, 2023 Gold Going Higher January 18, 2023 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Whoa! Just Wait Till Next Week! January 17, 2023 Long Live the Bear. The Bear is Dead January 17, 2023 A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Debt Ceiling January 16, 2023 Withholding Taxes Are Soaring January 6, 2023 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted January 31, 2023 Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 The Dollar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 31, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 Apparently, the accumulators have completed their work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted January 31, 2023 Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 J&J Can’t Use Bankruptcy to End Cancer Suits Over Baby Powder, Court Says (yahoo.com) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted January 31, 2023 Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 Is it Friday yet? Had a few moments before I leave...just passing through to say hello. Quite the punch out of that channel Doc. Gold's snap off 1900...interesting. I expect the rest of the week to be littered with this type of behavior. At least I hope so. Personally speaking...I'm in the red, I'm in the black...back and forth, back and forth. Just waiting for blue skies...or a sucker punch. Smile. I reviewed all of the posts since Sunday before commenting... fxfox...you have me at a slight disadvantage...I eschew following short interest. SiP: Interesting Dollar chart and more interesting peak ...I believe if you take a good look between October 27th and December 5th of 2008, you'll see another top that has a familiar ring to it. While I don't agree with the patterned behavior in 'Porn 2'...you did touch on a nerve with what has been going around in my mind since last summer. I keep getting flash backs to trading the 2000 crash during this decline. The high peaks and low valleys of the decline thus far has been...well...has been slightly boring to be honest. A year in and were down what? 2500 to 3000 points in the DJI? Yawn... Last summer I mentioned that I felt we were still in the topping pattern. I still feel this is the case according to the 'Canary in the Coal Mine' chart. A quick revisit... It will take below 3600 to break out of the pattern. I remember the last time we were looking for some answers around a fed meeting...turned out to be a dud. This is one time I'm not hoping for a repeat. Best of luck to everyone... TCG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 31, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 A bit more analysis shows that they must clear 4034 to keep it going.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted January 31, 2023 Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 A short note regarding the inverted yield curve: Since a few weeks there is more and more talk about that the yield curve inversion and it's anticipation of a comming recession isn't that reliable anymore. Folks then bring some cryptic reasons for that argument, which - in my view - is nothing else than: "THIS time, it's different!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 31, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 Here we have a whipsaw of a head and shoulders breakdown. Such whipsaws are usually bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 31, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 24 minutes ago, DrStool said: Here we have a whipsaw of a head and shoulders breakdown. Such whipsaws are usually bullish. How dealers paint to gather inventory. Vary the brush strokes, but the timing is similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 31, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 Don't get me wrong, bulls are not home free yet. But these selloffs smell bad to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 31, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 Time for lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted January 31, 2023 Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 Well, Fed dont like to shock the markets so 25bps rate rise is already priced in. Having said this, markets should move higher after Fed. Fintweet bubble is position for selloff. the reason for selloff is just TA. Main inflection points on bitcoin, usd, spx, ndx and many names Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted January 31, 2023 Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 25 minutes ago, SiP said: Well, Fed dont like to shock the markets so 25bps rate rise is already priced in. Having said this, markets should move higher after Fed. Fintweet bubble is position for selloff. the reason for selloff is just TA. Main inflection points on bitcoin, usd, spx, ndx and many names Bulls push it to the limit. As always. There could be quite the sell off after FED, but given the liquidity situation due to debt ceiling, it will be quite likely be a buying opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 31, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 Feels bullish to me. But my instinks have always been terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TurdButter Posted January 31, 2023 Report Share Posted January 31, 2023 2 hours ago, SiP said: Well, Fed dont like to shock the markets so 25bps rate rise is already priced in. Having said this, markets should move higher after Fed. Fintweet bubble is position for selloff. the reason for selloff is just TA. Main inflection points on bitcoin, usd, spx, ndx and many names If the Fed wants to really reverse inflation, which has been heavily concentrated in financial and real estate assets for 25+ years, it will HAVE TO 'surprise' the markets sometime, beyond the J hole mild rebuke. There's also been a theory,among some non-affiliated anal cysts, that the Fed, especially Powell, wants to not only destroy the 'Fed put' but also substantially loosen the relationship between the real macroeconomy and the markets. 'Surprise' needed for this too. To do the above, they'd need a 50 bp rate hike, a 50% increase in QT pace and a verbal throat punch of the equity and credit market. Buy more gold if not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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