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Yeah, Everybody Got it Wrong, Except this Guy 12/30/22

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end of year musing

all the chatter about year end tax selling and this popped into me head. what about all the baby boomers who are required to take a IRA distribution...I always wait till the last week, I don't need it so i wait till i have to...bet you most of us are the same. it could be a considerable amount during a  low volume time period and i could wait until just before todays close if i wanted .....just a thought, no data..Happy New Year to all

NE

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Star Trek: How Do Phasers Work?

"Set phasers to 3!"

Uhhh... I mean, this property, listed in the past 24 hours...

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...has a pending Phase 3 County of Mendocino permit and a permit with the State

 So... WTF is "Phase 3" & how do Spock, Scotty & Kirk get their Phase 3 farmer "on" in Mendo County?

Well... I don't really know or care, but if you do, then here's something on found on the Internet:

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Phase 3 - During the October 13, 2020 Board of Supervisors Meeting the Board provided direction to staff regarding zoning, parcel size, square footage allowance, and discretionary permit types for Phase 3--or new cannabis cultivation in Mendocino County.

How can I stay updated on Phase 3 and or Cannabis Program Changes?

To keep updated on any Cannabis Program notifications and the opening date for Phase 3, we encourage you to sign up for our Canna Notes e-Newsletter. Learn more by clicking HERE.

https://www.mendocinocounty.org/departments/cannabis-department/cannabis-cultivation-faq

Brave New World where the County officials offer to keep you updated on pot farming. 

Meanwhile, this property reveals the challenges of larger-scale commercial production, despite legality.  Most farmers have traditionally pursued their pot cultivation up dirt roads, behind gates, and deep into forest land unvisited by others.  Maximal discretion, from authorities and poachers.

Where cultivation moves out of the mountains and into the valleys, different approaches are necessary to defend the crop. This place with its "21+ acres of level ground in the Covelo Valley" has gone the "correctional facility" route, with a high security fence topped by barbed wire set back from the property line to protect/defend "14 greenhouses totaling 14,000 SF and hundreds of 150-gallon smart pots are ready for spring farming season." 

You don't want any local neighborhood thieves making off with a plant here or there on the eve of harvest-time.

The photos reveal an otherwise lovely setting, where it looks like your future neighbors may also be cultivators... with asking at $795K.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Covelo/22745-Refuse-Rd-95428/home/183605112

Happy New Year!

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1 hour ago, SiP said:

 

Well, is it net, or gross? 

Answer, gross. The BoJ's balance sheet, like the Fed's and ECB's has been shrinking this year, although rising since September. Hardly enough to offset the crash in ECB assets, and steady drawdown of Fed assets. 

image.png

I don't have a chart for Japan December, but Bloomberg data shows that as of December 20, total assets had fallen slightly in December. So, since the peak in April they are down by 500 gazillion yen. 

image.png

BoJ buying since September could have been responsible for helping put a bid under Treasuries and US stocks. 

But not much. 

image.png

 

Composite Liquidity Still Bearish, No End in Sight

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1 hour ago, SiP said:

How does this impact global liquidity?

120 billions is pretty big number https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1608758120435810304?t=vCfpcHJ0UCTK7PCd1rUQwQ&s=19

more on this topic:

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/12/30/business/boj-bond-purchases-record/
 

The BOJ’s struggle to contain rising local yields may have a global consequence as investors in the nation own $2.4 trillion of foreign debt. Higher local yields may spur Japanese investors to bring home more funds, exacerbating upward pressures on bonds around the world.

“The ripples from the BOJ move continue to impact markets,” Martin Whetton, head of fixed income and currency strategy at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, wrote in a research note. “Hedge costs remain punitive. The yen could retrace, which leaves unhedged buyers out of pocket and the domestic yields of course are attractive.”

 

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11 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Well, is it net, or gross? 

Answer, gross. The BoJ's balance sheet, like the Fed's and ECB's has been shrinking this year, although rising since September. Hardly enough to offset the crash in ECB assets, and steady drawdown of Fed assets. 

image.png

I don't have a chart for Japan December, but Bloomberg data shows that as of December 20, total assets had fallen slightly in December. So, since the peak in April they are down by 500 gazillion yen. 

image.png

BoJ buying since September could have been responsible for helping put a bid under Treasuries and US stocks. 

But not much. 

image.png

 

Composite Liquidity Still Bearish, No End in Sight

Make a ratio of the ECB vs FED balance sheet and voila you have the EUR/USD exchange rate 😂🥳

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21 hours ago, fxfox said:

Make a ratio of the ECB vs FED balance sheet and voila you have the EUR/USD exchange rate 😂🥳

Well put. Elegantly restates a point I have made in the past. 

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Great article, reflecting the themes I've been discussing:

Quote

The legal cannabis trade, still in its infancy, is flailing in many parts of the country as the pandemic boom that sent sales soaring has tapered off. Supply is now flooding the market in several states, economists say, depressing prices and decimating already-thin margins. And competition is sure to escalate as decriminalization spreads, large growers adopt more cost-effective technologies and the illegal market not only endures, but thrives....

In fact, retail prices have fallen 10 percent this year in California, the nation’s largest market. It also compounds the challenges unique to this industry: Because marijuana remains illegal federally, businesses must navigate a labyrinth of overlapping regulations — creating confusion and occasionally chaos.

Essentially unable to raise prices, many cultivators and vendors are slashing them in hopes of generating any cash at all. By many accounts, the industry is struggling against unprecedented uncertainty and poised for what Keats is calling the “Great Reset.”

Because of the fragmented nature of marijuana sales in the United States, it’s difficult to precisely measure price fluctuations. But growers and retailers have seen a clear impact. Keats said that 15 years ago, a pound of outdoor-grown flower could sell for $3,500. After a temporary drop in 2017, it stabilized to around $1,200 to $1,600 for years. Now it’s worth less than half that.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/12/30/marijuana-supply-sales-turmoil/

Properties are pouring onto the market.

Growers are going to have to make decisions in February/March - do they initiate a crop?

Or do they accept an offer below asking to move on?

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