DrStool Posted November 21, 2023 Report Share Posted November 21, 2023 Clearing resistance is hard. The rally has crossed a range, parts of which the market has repeatedly traded through over the past 7 months. That tends to clear the range of both bids and offers, leaving a thin market that can be traversed easily. Now we've reached the hard part, the top of the range. Traders who have bought and held through this rally will enter their sell orders near the top of that range. Dealers will attempt to pre-empt them. Bears will start shorting near the highs. Buying momentum will begin to wane as the market has become extended and overbought. I'll illustrate this with a daily chart of the ES, 24 hour S&P futures. So we can expect the rally to end any day now. What happens after that, I will leave for the longer term Technical Trader analysis. Before the market opened yesterday I thought that there was Room to Run. Now we'll see. As our old friend LeeWhee reminded us, the more resistance is tested, the weaker it becomes. Now we'll find out if they have the powell to continue probing the resistance enough to weaken it for a subsequent breakthrough. Here, our focus is on the day to day, so let's return to the usual look at the hourly chart of the ES. The 5 day cycle has entered a down phase after hitting most projections. There's a band of spport around 4535 40 that will give us an idea of whether this down phase will go down in absolute terms or just go sideways as a consolidation before the next attempt to break out. For moron the markets, see: Swing Trade Screen Picks – Holding Those Longs November 20, 2023 Room to Run November 20, 2023 A Rally Can’t Live on Hope Alone November 20, 2023 Gold Has Lost Its Mojo and Is Now in Danger November 14, 2023 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Loading Up on Buys November 13, 2023 Meltup Gonna Take You Hiya November 13, 2023 Fuggedaboutit! Treasury Supply Ain’t Going Away November 5, 2023 Which to Believe, the BLS or Actual Tax Collections November 3, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted November 21, 2023 Report Share Posted November 21, 2023 5600 on spx cup and handle by BofA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 21, 2023 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2023 This is how it starts. Profits are taken. Doubts creep in. Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 21, 2023 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2023 No, this is not the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 21, 2023 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2023 Another test of trend spport coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 21, 2023 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2023 Need to clear 4540 to reverse the pullback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted November 21, 2023 Report Share Posted November 21, 2023 46 minutes ago, DrStool said: No, this is not the end. Churchill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 21, 2023 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2023 Ya wohl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 21, 2023 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2023 11:30 levitation hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted November 21, 2023 Report Share Posted November 21, 2023 Could it be the beginning of the beginning of the beginning end before it even begins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PullMyFinger Posted November 21, 2023 Report Share Posted November 21, 2023 11 minutes ago, fxfox said: Could it be the beginning of the beginning of the beginning end before it even begins? If you want to put a specific time frame to it, if I understand this correctly, it's either 4 weeks and 3 days, or 9 weeks and 5 days. 😉 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted November 21, 2023 Report Share Posted November 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, PullMyFinger said: If you want to put a specific time frame to it, if I understand this correctly, it's either 4 weeks and 3 days, or 9 weeks and 5 days. 😉 😂😂😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted November 21, 2023 Report Share Posted November 21, 2023 I just saw on YouTube that if you buy 10 shares of Tesla you will become a millionaire. Is there going to be a stock market by the time Musk is president of the Republic of Texas, or X? If so then could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 21, 2023 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2023 Never short a dull market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 21, 2023 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2023 Actually, markets are often dull at the tippy tippy top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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