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The Fundamental Things Apply as Time Goes By 11/2/23

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1 hour ago, fxfox said:

Giant SHS on the monthly. March 2020 and Sep/Oct 2022 low not far away. Must hold, otherwise: Sayonara.

Screens are based on daily bars and 13 week cycles. Then I trade the hourly, 20 minute and 5 minute bars for fine tuning.

Monthly? Bwahaha. At my age, can't wait for the monthly bars to play out. 

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Another new low on the Fed's RRP slush fund. 

Dropping at an average of $200 billion per month give or take. That theoretically leaves 5 months until the shit hits the fan.

Or sooner. 

WTSHTF coming soon to a theatre near you. Here’s Why Macro Liquidity Still Signals Record Danger

image.png

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49 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Another new low on the Fed's RRP slush fund. 

Dropping at an average of $200 billion per month give or take. That theoretically leaves 5 months until the shit hits the fan.

Or sooner. 

WTSHTF coming soon to a theatre near you. Here’s Why Macro Liquidity Still Signals Record Danger

image.png

curious if they are timing the end of RRP with the Treasury's previously announced bond buyback program.  Operation, Kick the can in the nuts and down the road.

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58 minutes ago, potatohead said:

curious if they are timing the end of RRP with the Treasury's previously announced bond buyback program.  Operation, Kick the can in the nuts and down the road.

Treasury buyback program. OK. They're not buying back, they're exchanging one security for another. How does that affect supply? It doesn't. 

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1 hour ago, SiP said:

dont worry about april 2024. If yields continues to go down we come back to bull market.

 

we should have santa rally. We enter two great months

I'm not worried. I just trade what the market gives. Read the charts and trade short term.  Swing Trade Screen Picks – Adding Longs October 31, 2023

Bonds rally sometimes. But as long as the Treasury pounds the market with supply month in and month out, and the Fed is not buying virtually all of it, bond prices will continue to trend lower. The Law of Supply hasn't been repealed. The last 39 months have proven that. The market can not maintain a stable equilibrium price for fixed income securities if the Fed doesn't buy it or fund it.

So "if" the Fed returns to buy or fund the bond market, or "if" the Treasury uses its $850 billion in cash to pay down debt, then bond prices can rally for 6 months, but that would be the limit. "If" the Treasury spends down its $850 billion to pay down T-bills, which is something that they've done twice before, then the RRP fund won't be drawn down. 

120tei

There are lots of "ifs." It appears from the TBAC forecast that they want to reduce bill issuance, but it's not consistent with the fact that the Treasury also says that it will maintain a $750 billion cash balance. These two goals are inconsistent. I don't care to speculate on what they'll do, because they don't even know until they do it. They act when the market forces their hand. 

Best practice is to trade the liquidity flows as represented in the charts. I mean sure, you can always guess. Some people are good guessers and they get lucky more than other people do. 

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15 minutes ago, SiP said:

Apple beat estimates. on top and bottom line.

LOL estimates...

Is AAPL a new startup company... are their people that have never heard of this company and just waiting in the wings to buy a +$1k phone... (a fkn phone?  You have got to be kidding me!!!)

There are no new customers for apple that have not already purchased an iphone... it is now just replacements... NO WAY that valuation supports this price...

The half-price sale starts today... (buy stock today and get half your money back when you sale in 18 months...)

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