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The Fundamental Things Apply as Time Goes By 11/2/23

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The market continues to ram relentlessly higher despite being as extended as it gets on the hourly chart of the ES, 24 hour S&P futures. The 5 day cycle projection has risen to 4285. A conventional measured move target of the earlier base breakout measured to 4245, which was blown out with ease. Now an even bigger potential base has formed with a top line at 4266. If they get clear of that, the conventional measured move target would then be around 4405. Ugh. Hard to believe, Harry. 

All right, that's still an "if." What if they don't clear 4266. Then we're looking at trend support at 4258 as of the NY open, rising to 4268 at the close. For shorts to have any chance of avoiding a further squeeze, that line MUST be broken. But even if it is, to get any downside going at all, they would need to break support at 4244. 

Arguing for a selloff today is the fact that I came into yesterday a little bit long in my trading port, and left heavy long. Normally, I would need to fade myself to be consistently profitable in my babbling idiocy when it comes to day trading, which is more of an addiction for me, than a real profession. If it was a real profession, Capitalstool and The Wall Street Examiner would not exist. It is well said that, "Those who can, do, and those who can't, teach." 

So take every thing I say with a grain of salt, and your results will improve. 🤣🤣🤣 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Adding Longs October 31, 2023


Meanwhile, the mainstream media explanations that I have read about the performance of the Treasury market are truly laughable. These clowns have just discovered that bonds are in a bear market in the past couple of weeks despite it having been around for 3 years. Insane, really. I am working on two reports for Liquidity Trader that will get into the nitty gritty of why there is no end in sight to this bear market.

But the bottom line is that all the conditions which caused this bear market in the first place still exist, and Load Jaysus confirmed yesterday that the Fed isn't even thinking about accommodation to ameliorate that. 

So, sure, there will be rallies. I even called a temporary top in the 10 year yield a couple of weeks. Genius? Hell now. But I can draw lines. If you can draw lines and do cycle projections with a little basic rithmatic any idiot can make bond calls that usually work out. I am living proof of that. Fortunately, I do not trade bonds, therefore my calls have some basis for reliability. 

If you want to know one thing that will always keep you on the right side of the bond market when the Fed isn't buying it up, you must remember this, an ISS is but an ISS, a lie is but a lie. The fundamental things apply as time goes by.

It's the Supply Stupid. Here’s Why Macro Liquidity Still Signals Record Danger


As for our friend the yellow metal, one of its truisms, aside from remembering not to eat that yellow snow, is that the more resistance is attacked the weaker it becomes. The price of the metal is overbought, but if it corrects by going sideways in the $2000 vicinity, it will sure as hell attack the 2050 area, according to cycle projections. But what those who dig the stuff? Gold In the Mix1208q- 

For moron the markets, see:

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I had to move someones car yesterday and NPR was on the radio and some guy was explaining that Treasury bond interest rates were determined by supply and demand.  Who knew? I mean after 20 odd years of telling everyone that the Fed "sets rates". . I didn't catch the beginning or end to find out how a generation of opinion haver's rejected their primary belief "sets rates" with "supply and demand" overnight apparently without the slightest self awareness.

I remember the last time in tuned NPR news on purpose,well almost tune in the News at all.  It was the day Household International bought HSBC and the talking head on liberal NPR was so happy and excited like everyone.  Everyone was excited. It was sick. Let's see, 21 years. Time flies.

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Was there some news?

This was the old heads' favorite saying back in the day, when the market would suddenly move, back in the day when I was sitting in the customers' gallery at Walston and Company in the late 60s early 70s. Actually. Thinking about that group reminds me of the Peanut Gallery and  "What time is it kids?" It's Two Toidy Turn Time!  Any time the tape would jump or swoon somebody who had been through the 29 crash would murmur, "Was there some news?"

Well apparently a few minutes ago there was, unit labor costs fell in the third quarter. Deflation, keep us apart, Deflation, gone is my heart. 

I warned maybe two or three months ago that we were already at the beginning stage of deflation and the Fed doesn't know it.

But deflation will not be good for the bond market, sorry. Because why. You must remember this, an ISS is but an ISS. 

Chow! Here’s Why Macro Liquidity Still Signals Record Danger


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2 minutes ago, fxfox said:

Deflation would not be good for stonks either.

Would not be surprised if in Germany we would go directly from inflation into deflation, without having much of a dis-inflationary period.

Central banks are going to go from tightening to QE overnight, soon.

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