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The Market's Moment of Truth Has Arrived 2/3/23

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Good morning...It's Friday. 

After quickly perusing yesterdays comments...not a Windows fan.  At all.  Microsoft is one of my top five hated companies, right next to nVidia.  I will mention...our servers run on Linux.

Onto my comment...

I'm going to repost the "Twin Peaks" Formation Reference Chart.  Please recall, there are two main varieties to the pattern and several variations. 


And then follow up with "Twin Peaks Revisited".  Our current chart of the SPX is mirroring the SLV variation and this is what I've been watching unfold since the beginning of December. 

An acceleration...is the killshot.


Mark 'Dead in the Eyes" Zuckerberg made a few billion yesterday.  So...let's use the Facebook(Meta) topping pattern as an example of recent Twin Peaks action.   Can you see it?  If you  can see it...you can definitely trade it.  Although...I want to mention so it doesn't go unnoticed.  There is no secondary peak is there?  And...there doesn't have to be.

From my perspective Facebook will give you a very good roadmap for what lies ahead in 2023 - in the broader markets.  Because...as I've said a million times.  "The SPX is one step behind the Nasdaq."


I've laid out my argument.  The crash starts...here.


The CoinGuy


So it's easy to reference.  I'm adding a chart of Facebook during 2020-2022 advance...then decline.  I left the chart blank, although...I did draw a line at 150, then 140 as food for thought.


I'm going to repeat...

2,25(x) to 2,24(x) will get touched in the SPX. 

At that time...Poof. 

I'll be gone.



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IF IF IF we will crash (at least some sort of) it will start when there are CPI surprises to the upside in two consecutive months. Cause then the FED is in a trap: Hike and kill the banks (bonds must rise in 2023 so that banks get rid of their under water bonds fartpolios) OR do not hike and risk a raging inflation.

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When you look back to my comments on UUP from a week(or so) ago.  We got that test and rejection to the downside.  This bottom as long as it holds above 27.44 looks good to me.  The metals, well...I already mentioned what I thought in regards to the metals.  Today seals that door shut...

^XOI ain't looking too good...


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11 minutes ago, SiP said:

Everywhere unemployment in not a problem. even in spain or greece.

Baby boomers retire. For US stoolies: Baby boom in Europe was a bit later (due to WW2) than in the US. In Germany for example circa from 1955 till 1964 (then came the baby pill)

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After peeling off 2/3 of my longs yesterday, and a couple more on the open this morning, I have been gradually adding back longs. Not large, just half positions in a couple of something old, something new, something borrowed, and something blue. 

I'm a slow reactor. I remain bullish for now.

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18 minutes ago, DrStool said:

I remain bullish for now.

I thought we'd have a clean resolution by Friday...although, you know how these things go.  I think I'd personally feel better if I saw another burst to the upside.  In the new "Twin Peaks" Revisited chart I circled 42.50 for a reason.  I'd like to see 4250 tested since we're already up here.   I'm holding off any judgement until I sense weakness.  Thus far...since it broke the high on the 23rd...not much of that, eh?  Smile.  the only thing bothering me here is the metals/oil complex.  Well...they're not going in the same direction anymore are they?  I'm watching that relationship closely.  There was a head fake or two back in 2008...

I will note the SLV in 2011...topped at 47.50 AND...the drop below 32.50 was the death knell.



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