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Lovin' Me Some 3900 1/20/23

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The business about running out of money in June or July or August is irrelevant. It will happen when it happens. The lifting of the debt ceiling in a market where the Fed and ECB are still doing QT will be a disaster of the highest order. In the meantime, choppy bullishness. 

 

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3 hours ago, DrStool said:

They have always worked hand in hand. And with the Primary Dealers. They're all on the wire with each other all day every day. Constant open line of communication. The troika of the Fed, Treasury and their Primary Dealer strawmen are one entity. 

And in fact 13 of the Primary Dealers hold the same role in Japan and Europe. Two thirds of US Primary Dealers are foreign banks. When the big three act, money flows freely worldwide.

Only China is not a direct actor as their banks do not participate in the big 3. China has no direct impact on US markets. Their markets usually go their own way. Analyzing China is an utter waste of time. An act of sheer futility. Avoid doing that. 

Yes right. US, European and Japanese stocks go more or less in lockstep since decades. Differences only due to FX. Example: Huge upmove in EUR/USD from 2002 to 2008, so DAX performed better than S&P.

 

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3 hours ago, DrStool said:

The business about running out of money in June or July or August is irrelevant. It will happen when it happens. The lifting of the debt ceiling in a market where the Fed and ECB are still doing QT will be a disaster of the highest order. In the meantime, choppy bullishness. 

 

The mechanism is as follows:

Directly after the ceiling is lifted the Treasury will start issuing shitloads after  shitloads relentlessly. But the market will not be able to suck it up due to lack of liqui cause CB‘s drain. Right?

Well, since the FED and Treasury are aware of this, it will not happen that way. Right?

So when the ceiling is lifted the FED will stop drainig. Right?

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I loves me some Mediterranean living!  Accordingly, this listing had special appeal:

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French Mediterranean Estate with Spectacular views! The Former estate of Hubert Germain-Robin world renown brandy maker has everything you need and more to live a life of elegance and charm. This 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom home gives way to expansive lake views, multiple terraces and balconies that sit perched among a large mature olive grove, an organic Petite Syrah hobby vineyard, multiple vegetable gardens, lavender, fig trees and large blue agave plants. All on over 30 + acres with plenty of water, space and sun. Inside the home you will find multiple living spaces, great rooms and plenty of space to entertain guests both in and outdoors.

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/6580-Black-Bart-Trl_Redwood-Valley_CA_95470_M24958-00030

As the price history reveals at that site, it transacted for $899K in September 2016, on the eve of decriminalization in this state.  Then, it was listed this past November for $899K.

I originally found the property through Redfin, and property details there indicate it went "Conditional" on December 7, 2022, only to return to market a week later.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Redwood-Valley/6580-Black-Bart-Trl-95470/home/179222325

Lastly, it appears to have been delisted on realtor.com on January 5th.  And now, it is listed on Redfin as "For Sale by Owner," where new details emerge, presumably from the seller:

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Permitted cannabis grow provides annual passive income on rental of approx. one acre over a quarter mile from the house. Grower / tenant is open to permit transfer or will discontinue if new owner desires. The site is not visible from the house.

There was never any mention of the pot farm in the original listing. Makes me wonder whether the prospective purchasers withdrew the offer once they learned of the "passive income" component? 

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