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Lovin' Me Some 3900 1/20/23

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Only one little beep by the FED which gets interpreted by the market that balance sheet reduction will end or at least reduced and the S&P will be at 5000 by June.

The FED MUST hike by 0.50 on Feb 1st and speak ultra hawkish or the avalange of trillions of money waiting on the sidelines will flood the market.

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Mumble... mumble... new the last 24 hours... mumble... mumble... Northern California pot farm... mumble... mumble... fewer listings recently... mumble mumble... rally today... mumble... mumble... sociopathic equity market... mumble... mumble... 40 acres... mumble... mumble... "This one is priced to get your attention!"

Harumph... harumph... hate the freaking markets... harumph... harumph... greenhouses & permit for over 11,000 sqft of cultivation... harumph... harumph... not much else to the place... harumph... harumph... couple of dilapidated structures... harumph... harumph... relatively cheap at $280K with "permitted well" and pond... harumph... harumph... listing speaks of "sunshine": no kidding, since it's outside... harumph... harumph...

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Blocksburg/40-Acres-Sylvan-Glade-RD-95514/home/183862408#marketing-remarks-scroll

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Bitcoin is back because its an about time for it. most Bitcoin lovers were sayin that sept-nov is the low based halving and some month count.

So actually its all according to the plan. It should hit 150k usd this time

20230121_081151.jpg

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"We are in the trickiest part of the investment cycle: tightening ending but easing far from beginning, inflation over but recession not yet begun, China reopen vs US recession…little wonder Wall St narratives (are) changing quicker than a TikTok video"

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Treasury Has About $500 Billion of Headroom After Debt Limit Hit

Wall Street anal cysts have estimated the Treasury has room to keep functioning without a debt-limit resolution until July or August. Yellen hasn‚Äôt yet specified to Congress when the Treasury anticipates running out of cash ‚ÄĒ the so-called X-date ‚ÄĒ only stating that it‚Äôs unlikely the extraordinary measures would be exhausted before early June

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/treasury-500-billion-worth-extraordinary-205519195.html

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$Gold - The duration from the last weekly cycle high has reached 23 weeks which is the longest in the last 3 years. In 2019 there have been 27-28 week cycles so it's possible the rally will continue for another 4-5 weeks. A close below 1896 will confirm a bearish reversal

20230121_184336.jpg

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Doc,

could it be that since Yelen is Treasury Sec that, due to her former role as FED head, the Treasury and FED work more hand in hand than before? And because of that for example things like balance sheet reduction by the FED gets somewhat offset by actions of the Treasury and therefore their impact on the overall liquidity situation regarding financial market is somewhat muted and  the impact is not as harsh than say in 2018?

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1 hour ago, fxfox said:

Doc,

could it be that since Yelen is Treasury Sec that, due to her former role as FED head, the Treasury and FED work more hand in hand than before? And because of that for example things like balance sheet reduction by the FED gets somewhat offset by actions of the Treasury and therefore their impact on the overall liquidity situation regarding financial market is somewhat muted and  the impact is not as harsh than say in 2018?

To me, A lot of that "kinda of stuff" seems to be "sorta obvious" since "QE", and the alphabet bailouts of '08, etc.

and I will leave it at that.........Insert shoulder shrugging/shaking head/disbelief icons.....

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On 1/20/2023 at 11:42 PM, Jorma said:

For anyone suspecting cognitive impairment I recommend visiting my cousin, Dr. Bob's Budget Brain Surgery.

Where is he located? 

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17 hours ago, fxfox said:

Doc,

could it be that since Yelen is Treasury Sec that, due to her former role as FED head, the Treasury and FED work more hand in hand than before? And because of that for example things like balance sheet reduction by the FED gets somewhat offset by actions of the Treasury and therefore their impact on the overall liquidity situation regarding financial market is somewhat muted and  the impact is not as harsh than say in 2018?

They have always worked hand in hand. And with the Primary Dealers. They're all on the wire with each other all day every day. Constant open line of communication. The troika of the Fed, Treasury and their Primary Dealer strawmen are one entity. 

And in fact 13 of the Primary Dealers hold the same role in Japan and Europe. Two thirds of US Primary Dealers are foreign banks. When the big three act, money flows freely worldwide.

Only China is not a direct actor as their banks do not participate in the big 3. China has no direct impact on US markets. Their markets usually go their own way. Analyzing China is an utter waste of time. An act of sheer futility. Avoid doing that. 

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