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Market Down the Tubes Looks for Terminal Way Out

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Hourly oscillators are on the buy side on the ES S&P 500 fuguetures this morning. It looks like only a 3 day cycle low. It's too early for the 5 day, so I'm guessing there's one more down wave accompanied by a positive divergence before this sell wave ends. 

The key levels to watch this morning are 3800-05, coming into the NY open. If they clear that, the next minor resistance level would be 3820. Breaking that would create a minor reversal breakout that would measure to 3855. 

Seems unlikely, but it's not my decision. Now, on the downside, keep an eye on 3765-75. That's the major sport level that needs to hold. If it breaks, Happy Meltdown. 

That also seems unlikely. However, whatever the market gives, I'll take it, thank you very much. 

zxf9e

An uptick on Friday would coincide with a letup in the year end tax selling that most likely is all but done. Most wealth is, after all, managed by professionals, and most likely they want to take the day off tomorrow. So, being the prudent planners that they are, I suspect that they're done with their tax sales. Their ski reservations are made and many of them are already on the slopes. 

Heh heh. 

In fact, in my daily swing trade screens, I've seen lots of evidence of nibbling for bargains this week. 

So, no, I don't expect a massive collapse today and tomorrow, and yes, I think we see a bit of rebound to start the new year. 

A bit. As for the bigger picture, I'll post my outlook to begin the new year later on this coming long weekend

Be there!

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OK. I feel a little guilty for my inside non-joke. Not everyone has been to London. In fact, most people haven't been to London. 

The Tubes are the London subway.  

Exit signs do not say "Exit." They say "Way Out." 

Which has always struck me as hilarious. 

Truth is, I love the Tubes. Whenever I go down there, not only do I feel at home riding the down escalators deep into the bowels of the London Underground, but I am filled with a sense of awe and gratitude for this history there of how they saved Londoners from the savagery of Adolf Hitler. 

God bless the Brits for that, and of course for their greatest contribution to human civilization. 

Monty Python. 

 

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4 minutes ago, fxfox said:

It seems that tax loss selling for US taxpayers is even possible tomorrow Dec 30 to count for 2022 tax year:

https://investingnews.com/amp/mark-these-tax-loss-selling-dates-on-your-calendar-2655238728
 

I thöught it would be yesterday because of 2 day settlement, but that seems to be wrong.

Yes

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What we can also learn from the British: That appeasement is not in EVERY case the way to go. Anti-war movement was big in Britain in the 1920s and finally led to appeasement policy. Maybe history would have been written a bit different if the British and French would have had very strong army‘s in the 1920s/30s. Dictators like Hitler and Stalin perceived that as „weakness“ and „invitation“. You always have to be so strong that your counterpart knows from the beginning that by attacking you he at least risks severe damage if not extinction.

And that‘s why I say that under no circumstances whatsoever the Iranian Mullah regime never ever must be allowed to posses nuclear weapons. if another few dozen „scientists“ must die due to car bombs or whatever so it should be. 

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1 hour ago, fxfox said:

Guess those 100 billion came to play today

Yes, and I think that the tax loss selling is finished and that the natural tendency of the market to rise in the absence of sellers at year end will follow through tomorrow. Short sellers also want to close their books on the year.  

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23 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Yes, and I think that the tax loss selling is finished and that the natural tendency of the market to rise in the absence of sellers at year end will follow through tomorrow. Short sellers also want to close their books on the year.  

I think so too. Could have enough steam ro go to 3995 in the first week of Jan.

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I took a look at ETFs. You can see some drawdowns at bonds, equity etc etfs but when i look at dividend etfs i dont see any risk

Just take a look at Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG)

or VYM

SCHWAB US DIVIDEND EQUITY ETF

 

its just keep buying till your retirement.

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