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Weak Jobs Data Will Surprise Market, Trigger Rally in Bonds and Stocks 9/2/22

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I just updated the withholding tax data for August, with that data now complete for the month. 

It looks weak. I'll have more in a full report to follow later today.  Normally the month end data is out a few days before the BLS (Bureau of Liar Statistics) NFP (Non Factual Payrolls) data. This month, that data as finished only as of last night, too late for me, here in Europe, to update until this morning. That said, the July data was solid and it often feels to me as though the BLS data lags the 12th of the month data collection date to correlate more with the end of the prior month, not the current month. 

Withholding Tax Collections Collapsed in August But BLS Data Won’t Show It

Meanwhile, the futures are perfectly positioned to go either way!


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Now we spend the rest of today and maybe part of tomorrow finding out if they have what it takes to complete a right shoulder. 


Where are the documents missing from the empty top secret folders? Who has them, and what did they contain? 

Why hasn't the perp been arrested yet? 

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Probably the most active month I've seen in several years. 

I'm just going to give it to you straight out of my own notes.

Starting off September with the 1st into the 2nd.  The 1st being the mid-point in the 40 day beginning on August 12th(224)(+4/-4)(+10/+20), then the night of the 4th going into the 5th.  The full moon is on the 10th and a window opens the 11th and closes on the 12th.  14th(fades into the 15th). 21st into the 22nd and again on the 24th(and strengthens into the 25th).  On Sunday the 25th you have a new moon and the beginning of Rosh HaShanah until the 27th. 

I saw you're post from last evening Jimi.  As mentioned...I prefer left field, but I'm not ruling anything out. 

Global instability should accelerate...

Current Thoughts...

Yesterday gave us the edge of the creek within all areas of interest.  Next, is to just watch for these issues to "jump the creek"(or reject the jump) and adjust accordingly. 

Although...with one small caveat. 

Always be watchful for short-term inversions/deceptions along the path.

Currently...I'm seeing nothing out of the ordinary. 




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I guess the raison du jour is the gazprom thing. Or maybe the missing top secret files containing the 11 herbs and spices. Also the names and locations of US spies in Russia.  

I don't think that this will end well. 

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It would be irresponsible for me not to mention...

In light of fxfox's "This is It" video from the other day and considering where we are in the 2008 vs. 2022 pattern in the SPX...Lehman fell on September 15th, 2008. 

Now...I personally don't like the saying "History never repeats, but it sure does rhyme" even though I have used it on occasion.  I've done this only because everyone is familiar with the implication.

In my own terms....I use the word 'echo'. 

"An echo from the past".

With all of that said...

In regards to history and my own view of the patterning structure of the SPX in 2008 vs. today here in September of 2022.  We are on the edge of the Lehman incident...and that is why I'm watching for "It".

I'm expecting an echo from the past...

As a gentleman...this is my way of saying it might be time to - strap in.




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