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How Ya Doin' If Ya Don't Hold the Mag Seven- 2/23/24

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Just an epic breakout yesterday. To da moon Alice. But what if you didn't buy and hold the Magnificent Seven. 

Despite the huge gains on Thursday there were only 39 charts which met all my buy side criteria in the screens, and 26 with meeting final sell criteria. It suggests that this is a mature up-move, not one just getting started. By the same token it shows no sign of an imminent downturn.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

List performance was disappointing in light of the big move. That’s because I had too many shorts on the list. The average gain was just 4.8% on an average holding period of 26 calendar days. That’s versus 2.8% on an average holding period of 18 days, the previous week.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

It’s disappointing not to take full advantage of that huge gain. On the other hand, buying and holding the Magnificent Seven for the past couple of years would have been brilliant… Right… what they say about hindsight.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

If you’ve known me for a long time, you know that I am more comfortable shorting stocks than buying them. That’s been the weakness in this process in the past 18 months. I’ve been fascinated by those stocks that the screens are spitting out on the sell side, but shorting them hasn’t worked well. The downsides have been limited, if they emerge at all.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

This morning, I looked at the 26 charts on the sell side with interest to see if any of them stood out. Upon visual review, let’s just say that I was underwhelmed, which skepticism would have served better if I had applied it 4 weeks ago. But I did cave on two of them, and added them to the list on the short side as shown on the table below.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

On the buy side, most charts looked to be too late in the game, but there were 6 that I liked for their potential to be late-stage movers, or long-term breakouts that look likely to extend.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

All tracking, except for one pick, will start assuming half the purchase on the opening price and half on the close as of today, February 23. The exception is based on a limit price being hit at some point prior to the next update. These are all shown on the table below.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

6 picks hit stops since the last report. I will close out 2 shorts as of the opening print today. I have added or adjusted stops on several of the remaining picks. The rest I’m content to let ride for this week. The table below shows open picks and those closed out last week.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 


Meanwhile, did I suggest that this might be coming? 

As for today, which is the reason all 3 of us are here, along with you Magnanon visitors, it does appear they're gonna take you hiya. Yesterday I had a 5 day cycle projection of 5085. Now that has inched up to 5095-5105. And yes, there does appear to be a semblance of uptrending resistance around that level today. So let's look for an itsy bitsy top to form around that 5100 area. I wouldn't even think about getting excited about the downside unless they broke 5080 with force. 


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My old post from 2023.



Is it me or.......

Looking at the ten year chart.....

I just can't help but think the FED has drawn a line in the sand.....

At around 4.2%.

Its bounced off this line three times .....

I don't think that is coincidence.

Is the FED is using a lot of "Dark Liquidity" to save the banks, insurers and pensions funds bond portfolios from further loss???

And could a lot of that liquidity be leaking over into the stock market???

Ten year currently at 4.31 .....just where the FED wants it.

Not too far from 4.2. 

In the 4 to 5 band is the FED's "goldilocks" zone.

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47 minutes ago, DrStool said:

OK. But what's it mean? 

One possibility:  Those that forced 0.25% on Grandma during much of the previous fifteen years might consider doing the same again at some point during the next ten years?

What should one fear more, this possibility, or the specter of persistent inflation?

Even in the latter case, if one ladders the bonds (actually Treasury Notes), one can keep rolling into new ten year bonds as the shorter term ones mature, at the new low price /higher rate.  And meanwhile watch the skyrocketing Magnificent Seven go ever higher, dreaming of the yachts one could have bought.

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analcyst's having to raise 2024 market targets because already approaching projections from 2 months ago... no, no this is not a bubble... this is all going to blowup... just a matter of how high they can push it before it pops... I am betting not much higher...

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Boy is sure seems like we need a lot more money.  In fact is seems like we are getting a lot more money but from where?  It's not too hard to daydream about money in the 9 digits going to 10 by the slip of a bit, anywhere in the world, and whose the wiser.

In the real world RRP has flat lined. And where is the missing tax revenue?

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It's no mystery. 

Sometimes it just boils down to animal spirits. When people believe, they borrow and buy and mark up. When they mark up, more margin is created and more markup becomes likely.

This continues until the Wile E. Coyote moment. 

That's a highly technical condition that no one knows when it will be reached but some know when it is reached. 

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