DrStool Posted January 31 Report Share Posted January 31 Today is the grand finale of the 2 day FOMC tent revival. It will climax with the regular appearance of Load Jaysus before the assembled masses at 2:30 PM ET, to. He will explain the proclamation the high priests of monetary policy hand down at 2 PM. The only thing that will matter is whether the announce any change of plans regarding balance sheet reduction. All else is fluff. The end is coming, o ye sinners. Prepare to meet thy doom. The Danger Is that the Rally is Narrowly Based In the meantime, Partay On, despite the issuance of $42 billion in Treasury coupons today, and $58 billion in T-bills in the next week. At least. And watch that RRP slush fund drain down. Tick tock. Z Day cometh. Fed Balance Sheet Right Now Says Bears Should Get Ready to Rumble Meanwhile a few traders in the ES 24 hour S&P futures had second thoughts in the Asian session overnight, but as long as they're above 4897 when NY opens and 4899, when it closes, then no harm, no foul. This remains a bullish setup. If the uptrend lines hold, then we can look for at least a test of the high, and with some likelihood that they'll take that out, then 4950. Beyond that, 4980. I don't think that we'll see 5k today, but stranger things have happened on FOMC day. Thinking about the possible downside, wot? They'd have to break 4890 for starters, then there's a big spport zone in the 4860-70 range. Can't imagine that, and really can't imagine it breaking. For moron the markets, see: Swing Trade Screen Picks – Clearing Out the Shorts January 30, 2024 The Danger Is that the Rally is Narrowly Based January 29, 2024 Fed Balance Sheet Right Now Says Bears Should Get Ready to Rumble January 28, 2024 No Way Gold Has Forceful Breakout – 1/26/24 January 26, 2024 Primary Dealers Are Maxed Out Again January 24, 2024 Weekly Bank Data and Fed Balance Sheet Say the End is Nigh January 16, 2024 US Economy Didn’t Crash in December? January 4, 2024 US Economy Crashed in December – Nope, See Update January 3, 2024 This Chart Tells Us Exactly When the Bull Market Will End November 26, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted January 31 Report Share Posted January 31 It's about time for one of Jay's greatest hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 31 Author Report Share Posted January 31 It's DoD here. Beautiful afternoon here. I'm going to promener. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted January 31 Report Share Posted January 31 Yesterday's and today's profit realisation on BitTechs following the publication of very strong results by Microsoft, Alphabet and AMD gives food for thought and suggests that the market's growth over the past three months has most simply gone too far stretching valuations to levels at which even such good results do not meet expectations embedded in share prices. We won't know the results of Apple, Amazon and Meta Platforms until tomorrow, but they too are already clearly retreating today. The question, then, is whether the recent gains on the Nasdaq 100 have not carved out a stock market top? On the technical side, the risk of such a scenario seems considerable. The January rise, although it took the technology market to a new ATH, was unable to match the earlier rally from the October low in terms of momentum. Negative divergence reminiscent of the situation in July appeared on the D1 chart. The analogy does not, of course, guarantee a repeat of the index's behaviour in the following days and weeks, but it can be taken as a kind of warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
specie Posted January 31 Report Share Posted January 31 infospace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted January 31 Report Share Posted January 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 31 Author Report Share Posted January 31 5 hours ago, DrStool said: Thinking about the possible downside, wot? They'd have to break 4890 for starters, then there's a big spport zone in the 4860-70 range. Can't imagine that, and really can't imagine it breaking. Zaye wuz sayin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 31 Author Report Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, SiP said: Yesterday's and today's profit realisation on BitTechs following the publication of very strong results by Microsoft, Alphabet and AMD gives food for thought and suggests that the market's growth over the past three months has most simply gone too far stretching valuations to levels at which even such good results do not meet expectations embedded in share prices. We won't know the results of Apple, Amazon and Meta Platforms until tomorrow, but they too are already clearly retreating today. The question, then, is whether the recent gains on the Nasdaq 100 have not carved out a stock market top? On the technical side, the risk of such a scenario seems considerable. The January rise, although it took the technology market to a new ATH, was unable to match the earlier rally from the October low in terms of momentum. Negative divergence reminiscent of the situation in July appeared on the D1 chart. The analogy does not, of course, guarantee a repeat of the index's behaviour in the following days and weeks, but it can be taken as a kind of warning. Who wrote that bullshit? Oh, wow, a negative divergence. Negative divergences have predicted 12 of the last 2 bear markets and 39 of the last 3 corrections. Warning my ass. How the fuck is that actionable? In or out? Long or short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 31 Author Report Share Posted January 31 56 minutes ago, potatohead said: Sigh. For someone who worked for GS, that guy's ignorance is astounding. BILLS ARE ALWAYS PAID DOWN IN APRIL AND MAY. ALWAYS WITHOUT EXCEPTION. Net bill paydown of $245 B is light. Last year was an exception because the lifted the debt ceiling after Treasury cash hit zero so they had net issuance. 2022 $360B paydowns. 2021 $412 B. And the RRPs were being withdrawn in December with virtually no net issuance. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 31 Author Report Share Posted January 31 The number to watch on the 10 year is 3.86. Other than what happens when that's tested nobody knows nuthin about nuthin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted January 31 Report Share Posted January 31 I have a feeling that the game is about to change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
specie Posted January 31 Report Share Posted January 31 JDS uniphase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted January 31 Report Share Posted January 31 Could someone please tell the guests on Bloomberg to stop with the "good question" comment after every inane utterance of the host... makes the show almost unwatchable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted January 31 Report Share Posted January 31 44 minutes ago, specie said: JDS uniphase Coming to a bloated stock near you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted January 31 Report Share Posted January 31 WHEEEEEEEEE... what a ride... the ups the downs, the twist the turns... the sheer stupidity. When this is all done, maybe reason will be beat back into the markets... it's all just a casino now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts