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The Top is In- 11/10/23

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But for how long, that is the question. Not to be or not to be. To be for how long, for not to be is our destiny. 

The hourly chart of the ES, 24 hour futures doesn't tell us about the long term. I'll look at that and post something on it before Monday. For now, I will hold to my last headline. But much depends on whether the bulls can hold the line today, methinks. 

Yesterday we had a failed buy signal on the ES hourly. But it's not over till it's over. The hourly oscillators haven't broken down and the last key uptrend line is still below at 4325 as of 8 AM in NY. That line rises to 4333 as of the NY close. If they don't break that, bulls still have the ball for this move. But if that breaks, 4305 would be the next spport line and likely target, with a whole lot of air below that. A breakdown could be fast and furious. But I'd expect an attempt to defend spport today, first. 


The 30 year Treasury bond auction was a disaster yesterday. Surprise, surprise, surprise. OK, not. You had been warned. Repeatedly. And if there's ever a reason to expect that to change, I will let you know as soon as I see one. 

But as I pointed out yesterday, the trend is still your friend. Fuggedaboutit! Treasury Supply Ain’t Going Away 


What about the yellow relic. As bonds sold off yesterday, so too did it. Sigh. Why am I not surprised. But have faith, ye of little. All is not lost. This is still well within the context of the expected pullback


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11 minutes ago, PullMyFinger said:

Ransomware attack on China’s biggest bank may have hit US Treasury market



Read about that yesterday. A laughable excuse. Just a coincidence that it coincided with trendline touch? 

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1 hour ago, PullMyFinger said:

Mr. Above Reproach might be in some hot water for doing about the same thing he fired Dave Sokol for: 



Shocked!!! to hear that untoward dealings by highly respected and responsible individuals could occur! 

Actually I've thought that a supersecular ultralong term bottom would not occur until Warren the Weasel's reputation was fully ruined and he'd kicked the bucket.

And another story right by that one had his sidekick Charlie Chuckles pimping AAPL and GOOGL. Must think it's 2010.

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A real long term bottom will not occur before everyone hates stocks. Best would be if at the same time the 10y yield would be above the long term average yearly return of the S&P.

Last time we had the „everyone hates stocks“ part was in 2003 (the downmove in 2008 was not long enough), esoacially when you look at a global scale, DAX lost like 70% within 3 years.

We are still in a phase whwre EVERYONE knows for a fact that we will be „much higher in 5 years“, that „on the long run stocks go up“ and such. You didn‘t hear many of those phrases in 2003.

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