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Another Day, Another Sucker Play - 2/9/23

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And apparently, I was the sucker, capitulating on my longs. 

But alas, New York premarket trading is just getting ready to roll, and an upside breakout isn't guaranteed, as the 24 hour ES, S&P futures, move in a narrowing triangle, liable to trickle out the apex. At these moments we pause for a moment of silence in memory of the great racing driver, Dick Trickle. 

Thank you. 

Now, here's the maddening chart. Have you been manipulated? I sure have.


Meanwhile, we noted yesterday that the Treasury is slamming the market with supply, much to my surprise. With the debt ceiling preventing an increase in total debt, I had forecast that there would be T-bill paydowns. Instead, the opposite is happening.  I will have an in depth report on that, including why they might be doing it, and what it means for the outlook, in Liquidity Trader, to be posted this afternoon

I had noted that I surmised that the Treasury might be doing this to keep T-bill rates from falling, sending the market a signal it did not want to send.   We got this reaction yesterday from Jorma, who I think has been here even longer than I have. He was just waiting for the rest of us to show up.

14 hours ago, Jorma said:

I suppose but I see no reason why they wouldn't want rates to fall since 95% of the populace knows the Fed is raising rates.   Falling or steady market rates  have nothing to do the fact that everyone knows the Fed is raising rates. This is the Alice In Wonderland state of our world. Everyone also knows that higher rates are required to fight inflation so the Fed has to fight inflation by raising rates. If rates happen to fall when they are raising rates, all the better.


For moron the markets, see:

If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me

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Good morning fellow Stoolies...

Last evening as I perused through my mountain of NYSE/DJI issues that I follow...I had to go pretty far down the list to find stocks that were towards their recent highs.  Many of the DJI issues turned weeks ago.  I have several on my list already testing their October lows and a few that have already surpassed them.  Several are firmly planted deeply in 1929 style crashes.

Because of time constraints I'm actually quite upset I can't give more examples...I have dozens of issues sitting right here that I could comment on and I just picked a couple from the group to show you. 

At the end of the day...I've already given my opinion and that opinion hasn't changed.  I grade this market a solid 'F'.    In this case...the 'F' stands for Fucked.  I mentioned 'Event Risk'...and considering the month were in...I do believe it's a possibility.   I continue to plan accordingly hoping that I'm wrong.

Ok...without further ado.

The first chart is MGM on the Weekly.  Looking through my pile of charts...I'm seeing a pattern of behavior among one group.   Repetitive patterns are popping up across several issues that are mirroring their respective topping formations from the 2020 Pandemic Crash.  Interesting.  Please recall...I "taught them to trade the issue...against itself".  THIS is a perfect example.

The first chart of MGM I've left raw without any form of visual cues.  The second chart is with Jimi in mind.

Please note that the pandemic turn came at the BttB(Back to the Breakdown) area and...is currently struggling with the same issue.


Visual cues added...


Next, I'm going to move to a simple comparison chart of the SLV right after I made the call to 16 back in 2012 vs. the current pattern being exhibited in the DJI today.  1867513988_TheSLVCallto16-February92023.thumb.jpg.9b8a454b20a620511f853396aabcb8b9.jpg

Next...I'm going to take a look at 3M vs. how we currently stand in the DJI with visual cues added.  As always, study those inversions. 

Why the double red circle?  Very important point...if exceeded...the bear case fails. 4.21 to 12.1 is how many days?  12.1 is the middle of a three point pattern?  Study.  Think...


Have you taken a good look at 3M on the Weekly Chart?  It's currently struggling at the 2020 Pandemic lows.  358033631_MMMWeeklyChart-February92023.thumb.jpg.6f8385be9f5f340a90672d791b35ffd0.jpg

Let me zoom into the 5.10.21 high.  This roll-over pattern is currently being exhibited in quite a few large stocks on the NYSE as well as the DJI  itself(shown above) and makes for an excellent vehicle going forward.  Not to mention...it's the primary variant of the pattern from the SLV/DJI comparison chart above.  Note the variation...see the 3 points off the left side?  There you go...


If time permits...I'll pick a few more out of the pile as I'm able.

Best Regards,

The CoinGuy


To take the MMM/DJI comparison comment one step further...

Peak to peak.  Study...and...Think!

How many days?


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The stock market rally has stuttered and stumbled over the past 9 days. We now know why and, knowing that, we can forecast what comes next.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

The US Treasury announced this week that it would issue another $67 billion in net new T-bills next week. That’s on top of $9 billion coming today. At the same time, they have not revised downward TBAC forecast net coupon issuance. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

WTF! Don’t they know there’s a debt ceiling in place, and that they hit it on January 19? Usually under these debt ceiling impasses, the Treasury stops issuing debt on balance for the duration that they’re at the ceiling! They literally CANNOT legally issue more. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

But WAIT! There’s more! Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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Patiently waiting for the conclusion...they're winding the candles on the daily nice and tight.  No confirmation for the bulls or the bears as of yet.

Personally speaking(in the SPX)...I'm just watching 4110(then 4100), 4160(then 4210) to see what breaks first.



That would be 34200 and 33200 in the DJI.

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