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Never a Dull Moment- 12/23/22

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That's about the only thing I could think of to meaningfully describe this market.  Meanwhile, a couple of comments in response to your late postings yesterday. 

18 hours ago, fxfox said:

That was a very weird day. 

Ah, yah. 

  

17 hours ago, Jimi said:

So, as I alluded to earlier, I have an update.

Something really weird happened yesterday.

"What happened, man?!"

These all came to market in the past 24 hours, in no particular order:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Junction-City/521-River-Acres-96048/home/124454863

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Willow-Creek/203acre-Creeks-Rd-95573/home/183488012

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Hayfork/2220-Post-Mountain-Rd-96041/home/124468608

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Willow-Creek/12229-Fs-Route-1-95573/home/183488009

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Weaverville/35970-CA-3-96093/home/124385958#marketing-remarks-scroll

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Hayfork/8021-Rattlesnake-Rd-96041/home/124440038#marketing-remarks-scroll

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Myers-Flat/0-Dyerville-Loop-Rd-95554/home/183488000#marketing-remarks-scroll

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Hayfork/48-Rocky-Rd-96041/home/124456609

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Hayfork/4911-Summit-Creek-Rd-96041/home/124422171

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Hayfork/140-Demos-Ct-96041/home/124413312#marketing-remarks-scroll

 

Boom!!!

Each of these NorCal properties - with their watertanks, PVC fittings, greenhouses, and roundhenges - strikes me as having recently served as pot farms. I may mistakenly have falsely included one here or there... but I don't think so.  

It is as if a bunch of cultivators had set up relationships with listing agents and were awaiting the "Go!!" signal... on a freaking Tuesday... so that... they could list their places immediately on Wednesday...?

As if they wanted to get out NOW and get out ahead of others... before some flood?

:huh:

Very odd.

What could have been the signal?

Well, I think it was the $1.7 trillion federal spending bill... and specifically, what was not in it:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/20/politics/spending-bill-congress-omnibus/index.html

Okay... so, it would appear that a bunch of farmers want out of the cash-business.

The listings in the first 24 hours are likely the tip of an iceberg, since federal reform is now frozen for the next two harvests, given GOP control of the House.

Supply in this sector is about to escalate, methinks....

Or one owner of many properties. 😉😉

  

5 hours ago, SiP said:

the battle of 11.000 on Nasdaq 100

50/50 SMA/EMA on monthly - still no close since 2009 below this movin avg.

If this is real thing they need to close the month significantly below 11.000. That would be a change since 2009.

QTs, Covid, EMU crisis, Fed rates and many other things didnt stop NQ from going up.

Is this different this time?

 

naasdaq.PNG

In my brief history of watching charts for 59 years, I seem to recall that it usually takes 3 touches of a major MA to finally result in a breakdown. I have absolutely no doubt that this one will be broken. I think that the Fed will stay tight until it is. Therefore it's a given. 

Doesn't mean that my view is correct, but I like to leave no doubt about where I stand. 

However, there will more back and forth until it is. 

And now, in microcosm. In the short run, equivocation is the word. Will there be a Santa Clause Rally, finally? Or will bulls get coal in their stockings? That's the question for Christmas Eve. 

At least there are clear parameters that I think will yield an answer. 

For SCR, they need to get the ES, 24 hour S&P futures above 3842 by the early going in regular NY trading. If bears can take it below 3813, they'll have the Christmas party. Between those two numbers, a sweaty, drug addled mosh pit. 

image.png

I have a Liquidity Trader Money Trends report in process to be posted later this morning. 

With the holiday upon us, I know that most of you will be busy with more important things, so I will also take the opportunity for a little down time. I wish you and your families the Merriest Christmas and Happiest New Year, Happiest Hannukah, Kwanza, and Festivus for the rest of us. 

I want to thank all of you for helping me to have a very good year. Here's to a good 2023!

Hag Sameach! 

For moron the markets, see:

If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me

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8 minutes ago, Mkucstars said:

I like to leave no doubt about where I stand. 

You, my friend, are out standing in the field.

Merry Christmas to all and Festivus!

My god, my father used to tell that joke every time we passed a dairy farm. 

He had a degree in agriculture from National Farm School and worked on farms when he was young. 

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5 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Did I mention two weeks ago that bond yields had bottomed. 

I don't remember. 

Yes and you were more or less the only one who did that. All others were foaming at the mouth bullish TLT for example at that time.

You made very good interest rate calls. 

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