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Read My Lips, No New Longs 11/28/22

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40 minutes ago, BreakOut said:

S&P 4000 was essentially the 38.2% retracement from the January 1 drop.  Countertrend rally has brought out enough bulls for this to now be Primary Wave 3, The Great Humbler.  A jam up to the 50% retracement of 4150 for a last high during the first week in January would also be poetic.

However, the quietness of this board and the disappearance of other bear boards suggests that Frazier might really be in the house this time.  Really.


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This is a bear board?


I thought this was a farming website?

Did you know that you could...


...[g]et a jump start on your own canna licensed business with this 5+ acre property located in the heart of Trinity! Property holds state license for 10K mixed light cultivation while CEQA has been submitted to county and under review- license had been kept current. Property features 400 amp service, a 3-5 gpm well (per seller), lots of water storage, permitted septic, and four fully auto-dep greenhouses, all wired and set up. Building permit for small home has been filed, just not built yet. Great sunshiney location with nearly end of the road privacy. This package has all of the key points covered- come check it out!

For the low, low price of "only" $299K?  That actually seems like a lot for ~5 acres, given the comps otherwise posted here in recent weeks.  There is no price history on the place, so we can't compare asking to a prior transaction. Listing became active on October 13, 2022... just after the harvest cycle, I would guess.


This weird pot-farm thing began as a stumbled-upon oddity, while I passively looked for interesting second-homes in my beloved state. But it has me thinking more about enterprise opportunity. Cultivators are exiting, I assume, because the return on investment wasn't what they'd hoped it would be: "farming" is a whole lot less interesting at $500/plant (or whatever it is) than +$1,000/plant.  I get that.

What I'm now trying to puzzle through is whether there is some prospect of finding a farm/facility that can be purchased, and then overseen by some enterprising young soul (say, a recent graduate out of the University of California at Davis, with an undergrad degree in Plant Sciences - https://caes.ucdavis.edu/students/academics/majors/plantsci) with whom you split harvest proceeds in an equitable manner.  They make the property productive while learning first-hand the ins & outs of cultivation; as its owner, you earn a passive - albeit, modest - income.

If you have a return time horizon that extends farther out than those who are currently selling, then you can find financial purpose in the more modest return, as it slowly pays down the implied note on the purchase.

Additionally, there may exist an implied call option embedded in California pot farms in the form of prospective legalization at the federal level. So... you buy now from disheartened & impatient sellers at prices that reflect both depressed dollar-per-pound economics & high mortgage rates, you generate from it whatever income you might in the interim & indefinitely, and you sell when/if federal regulation disposes of its current "Schedule I" control.

Hmmm... just sort of thinking out loud here.


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Back of the envelope (4800-3500) x 1.61 = 2100.

So if we get the 50% S&P retracement to 4150, Primary wave 3 could drop us all the way to 2050 or so.

Fibonacci left the building in 2010 when the Fed blew it away and made a mockery of it.  In a potentially Fed-free environment, we might see it regain some stature.

Could apply to a continued rise in LT interest rates, as well.  At least until the QE machine starts up again, then all bets are off.


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Neither a perma bull nor perma bear be...

Just be right....which is difficult enough....

Re zero hedge...the comments section is deeply amusing for anyone who likes laughs.

The comentors basically spend their enitre time insulting each other. 

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