DrStool Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 The S&P 500 has barely moved over the past 24 hours. Clearly, stock traders have found the perfect equilibrium price where stocks are fairly valued, and everyone is happy. We can all now close our trading screens and go do something productive with our time, secure in the knowledge that the US stock market is free and fair, enlightened and efficient. Wall Street exists to help us grow and secure our wealth, and is always looking out for our best interests. As are government policymakers. As is the Federal Reserve. All is well. And on this election day we awaken secure in the knowledge that everyone who wants to vote will be able to, everyone's vote will be counted: Congressional districts are drawn fairly: so as not to favor a particular political party, democracy will prevail, and all will accept the results of a free and fair electoral system. Never mind that one political party bent on preserving its electoral advantages is suing to have thousands of mail ballots excluded in Pennsylvania. People should know to put a date on the outside of the envelope. Yes, democracy will prevail. Or maybe it won't, and we'll all find out how it is to live in a Brave New World. What does that have to do with the stock market? Absolutely nothing. Day to day, it's noise, and yes, the stock market jumps and swoons on the noise, but for the trend, the really big trend, only liquidity matters. On the other hand, in the day to day world that short term traders deal with, and on which we focus here, liquidity is not determinative. Here it's just noise and cycles. And it's difficult to distinguish between them. Sometimes the noise is pro-cyclical, and sometimes it's counter cyclical. Normally the market settles back into its daily and intraday cyclical rhythms after noise causes distortion, either with or against the direction of the current phase. If we do our homework correctly, more often than not, we should be in a position to take advantage of the noise driven moves, by fading the distortions. Today, the ES 24 hour S&P futures face the prospect of a 5 day cycle high and downturn, at or below significant resistance at 3830. However, the 5 day cycle projection points to 3840-45. That would break the trend resistance. If the market stays above those trendlines, and is above 3825 at the end of the day, the next up phase should extend, perhaps as far as the early November peak of 3915. But if they roll over here, then they'll probably go back to 3700. In either case, the setup doesn't call for a big move on or after election day. The free and fair market is in perfect equilibrium. Big picture stuff below. Swing Trade Screen Picks –100% Buys – Yikes! November 7, 2022 What To Do About an Anxiety Ridden, Conflicted Market November 7, 2022 Bad News for the Markets – Not Just Withholding Boomed in October November 3, 2022 Surge in Withholding Tax Collections in October Indicates Faster Jobs Growth November 2, 2022 Signs of an Intermediate Bottom in Gold Falter November 2, 2022 Bear Market Isn’t the Mirror of a Bull October 31, 2022 We Can Now Project When Fed Will Pause, But Not Reverse October 13, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 Gold Slot Racing Leading NowhereNovember 8, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 XX20 hit $1.9 Billion Powerball Fail due to "security problems" (No Drawing on Monday) >: The FED is also a factor in the Powerball (indirectly?) From the WSJ The advertised jackpot is calculated in part based on the Federal Reserve’s benchmark federal-funds rate. That is because it is the future value of the prize after being invested in government bonds over 30 years. The Federal Reserve has played a role in boosting the latest Powerball jackpot because it has been raising interest rates this year to tame inflation. The winner can take home either $1.9 billion, paid out in 30 annual payments, or a lump sum of about $929 million. The lump sum would be cut to $585 million after federal taxes alone. No winner has chosen the annual payments since 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 In honour of Voting Day (US) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 The battle is joined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 Bears need to induce a fumble here. Doesn't look good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 5 day cycle projection rises to 3850-55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 - Bullish day - great intro from Doc - great jokes about elections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 2 hours ago, DrStool said: Bears need to induce a fumble here. Doesn't look good.. INTERCEPTED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 Bitcoin @ $18,794 down nearly 10%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 And the shooting hasn't even started yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 The Dow Jones would like to know what all this talk about a bear market is about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 So far only pulls back to breakout area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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