DrStool Posted May 20 Report Share Posted May 20 Keeping in mind that cycles and liquidity turned bullish back in April, here's the latest. Higher and Higher LEE ADLER 2 - TECHNICAL TRADER MAY 20, 2024 Cycle projections have increased across the board. A top is coming but not for awhile. Here’s where and when. Non subscribers click here to access. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! As for today, the hourly chart of the ES 24 hour S&P futures presents no basis for disagreement. To do so, it would need to break 5290 just for starters. Otherwise the path of least resistance would be up, to at least test Friday's high of 5325, or if that breaks, 5340. For moron the markets, see: Why Sell in May and Go Away May 14, 2024 Swing Trade Screen Picks – No Way! May 13, 2024 Higher But Narrow May 13, 2024 Icing on the Gold Cake May 10, 2024 April Tax Collections Soared May 4, 2024 Gold Valley Rally May 3, 2024 The Fed Doesn’t Matter Any More May 1, 2024 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Hidden Gems April 29, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TurdButter Posted May 20 Report Share Posted May 20 Why Sell in May and Go Away... has been contradicted in six days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted May 20 Report Share Posted May 20 5500 is new SPX target. I see bullishness everywhere. Commodities are booming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted May 20 Report Share Posted May 20 every drop is a blessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted May 20 Report Share Posted May 20 Gold to the 3000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 20 Author Report Share Posted May 20 That's why I do many hours of research, analysis, and reporting every week. Markets are dynamic. I report what the data shows. The thread of the story is consistent. Only the timing requires adjustment. The important thing is to read the reports and get a full understanding of the likely timing, and adjust your trading accordingly. Doing that, I've been able to generate positive theoretical returns in most weeks. Low Confidence, Limited Risk, Tilted Buy LEE ADLER 2 - TECHNICAL TRADER MAY 20, 2024 List performance was slightly positive last week, but underperformed the market. Including picks still open at the end of the week, plus those stopped out during the week, the list had an average gain of 1.5% with an average holding period of 17 calendar days. This compares with the prior week’s drawdown of -0.4% on an average holding period of 15 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. The screening data lately has not kept up with the strength in the market averages, which are dominated by a few stocks. Non-subscribers click here for access. The latest screens ferreted out 74 stocks that met buy side criteria on Friday before the trigger test. That was up from 32, the week before. There were just 14 sells versus 41 the week before. While the buys had a solid edge, it was not broad strength. Non-subscribers click here for access. Next, I counted the signals that were triggered on Friday alone. After applying the trigger filters, none of the 14 sells hit their triggers on Friday, while 4 of the buys did. I liked two of them enough to add to the list and start tracking as of Monday. Non-subscribers click here for access. With the 2 new picks and an existing pick stopped out last week, that will leave 5 buys and 2 shorts on the list for this week. 7 picks remains a low number relative to the 11 to 20 that we’ve typically had in recent months. This indicates low confidence and suggests limiting exposure. Non-subscribers click here for access. 5/6/24 For all picks closed out in April the average gain was 15.2% on an average holding period of 34 calendar days. Of those 7 were buys and 4 were shorts. 9 of the 11 picks close out were profitable. Non-subscribers click here for access. Past performance does not suggest future results. Non-subscribers click here for access. I have added or adjusted stops for several existing picks. New picks are added without stops. Risk management is assumed via multiple small positions that won’t break the bank if they go wrong. Non-subscribers click here for access. See the table and charts in the report. Non-subscribers click here for access. Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted May 20 Report Share Posted May 20 Doc, why play around with buying companies? isn't it better to focus on sectors and ETFs like XLK, XLE etc and just track them? When you get a buy signal buy the ETF and hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 20 Author Report Share Posted May 20 A couple of reasons. First, I can't buy ETFs in my account. Second, in theory, the screens should generate superior returns by selecting from a broader universe of all actively traded stocks. In theory, they should find the best performers in the short run, and through the magic of compounding eventually generate immense wealth, ultimately cornering and owning all of the wealth in the universe and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
specie Posted May 20 Report Share Posted May 20 Ever since Friday, JPMorgan Chase is paying much higher rates on their CDs than other banks. May have a tiny silver problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Takachi-1 Posted May 20 Report Share Posted May 20 If they have a silver problem, its not gonna be tiny. That will be something if/when they have to cover. Of course, the Treasury may just let them mark to some equivalent of maturity, instead of market. Wouldn't that be something if the Fed just said, "OK, you can borrow an infinite amount to cover the difference like they did for the banks." Never say never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted May 20 Report Share Posted May 20 Well some problem is needed so the Fed can start printing, expanding its balance sheet, again. The world is begging for more money. It will get it sooner or later. Make that sooner. The Feds balance sheet is a polite fiction. Believing in balance sheets is so yesterday. So Enlightenment. That's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted May 20 Report Share Posted May 20 i bought some Bitcoin some ar sayin we will visit 1 mln by 2030. live your dreams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted May 20 Report Share Posted May 20 2 hours ago, DrStool said: A couple of reasons. First, I can't buy ETFs in my account. Second, in theory, the screens should generate superior returns by selecting from a broader universe of all actively traded stocks. In theory, they should find the best performers in the short run, and through the magic of compounding eventually generate immense wealth, ultimately cornering and owning all of the wealth in the universe and beyond. Do you have an account with some bank from the Middle Ages? now you can buy etf everywhere. open an account with saxo bank, where ever you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 20 Author Report Share Posted May 20 Interactive Brokers Ireland US ETFs do not meet EU disclosure requirement rules. I wouldn't trade ETFs anyway because they just damp returns. I'm up 2% today on 100% cash basis on stocks that I bought this morning at the open, based on screen results that took me 60 years of observation to develop. So far since May 1, trades I have have taken from those screens have generated 11% net, full cash basis cumulative profit. On the macro side, my broad market technical work forecast and confirmed the April bottom. This is what I do. This is how I do it. I don't need, nor do I want advice you or anyone else to tell me how to do this. Here's how this works. I do my thing. You do yours. If I did it your way, it wouldn't be my way, it would be your way. Sinatra said it better than anyone ever could. On 4/19/2024 at 10:03 PM, SiP said: And April suppose to be good because of tax Bahahhahaha On 4/19/2024 at 10:24 PM, DrStool said: April isn't over yet. In some years the response to the buildup of liquidity is delayed by several weeks. The liquidity influx has just started. Warning Signs Abound, But Ignore Them for Now On 4/20/2024 at 10:36 AM, SiP said: Lee, come on. It's gonna be 22nd April this Monday. April sucks. Biggest correction in stock since many months. I think we should get some up phase next week if we don't get any new bad news from Middle East and earnings from bigtech Meta, Google, Microsoft will be good. The big q is - how the phase will look like. If it's just sideways then... Be prepare to see 4500 in spx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 20 Author Report Share Posted May 20 I'm getting ready to leave for a week. I'll be taking the Train de Merveilles to Cuneo and Turin, Italy. Meanwhile, the work will continue, but I will be out of touch at times. Ciao and have a great rest of the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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