DrStool Posted January 30 Report Share Posted January 30 A two day circus is in town. It's the FOMCircus featuring ringmaster Lord Jaysus Powell, and his Clown Posse. The stock market celebrated its arrival yesterday. Anything that happens in the market between now and tomorrow's dog and pony show is just for show. The real action comes Thursday. Meanwhile, be careful where you step. That said we have both a 5 day cycle projection and conventional measured move target of 4940 on the hourly chart of the ES, 24 hour S&P futures. No doubt when the circus opens tomorrow, the market will zoom to 5000 for show. But what happens after that will be interesting. The Danger Is that the Rally is Narrowly Based For moron the markets, see: Swing Trade Screen Picks – Clearing Out the Shorts January 30, 2024 The Danger Is that the Rally is Narrowly Based January 29, 2024 Fed Balance Sheet Right Now Says Bears Should Get Ready to Rumble January 28, 2024 No Way Gold Has Forceful Breakout – 1/26/24 January 26, 2024 Primary Dealers Are Maxed Out Again January 24, 2024 Weekly Bank Data and Fed Balance Sheet Say the End is Nigh January 16, 2024 US Economy Didn’t Crash in December? January 4, 2024 US Economy Crashed in December – Nope, See Update January 3, 2024 This Chart Tells Us Exactly When the Bull Market Will End November 26, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 30 Author Report Share Posted January 30 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Clearing Out the Shorts LEE ADLER 2 - TECHNICAL TRADER JANUARY 30, 2024 OK, not all but most. Two hit their stops over the past couple of days and 5 more will be closed out from the list based on this morning’s opening price in New York trading. That will still leave 5 shorts from our last review last week. There are also 5 longs remaining open. Non-subscribers click here for access. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. The pick list gained a tad in the past week. It currently shows an average gain of 1.8% on an average holding period of 20 calendar days. That’s up from an average gain of 1.6% on an average holding period of 18 calendar days last week. This includes currently open picks, those that will be closed out today, and those that have hit stops over the past week. Non-subscribers click here for access. Over the past two trading sessions there were 27 charts with a second buy signal on the week, and 22 with a second sell signal. That’s both a small total and a small buy side margin. It suggests that this rally is very narrow and in its late stages. Non-subscribers click here for access. I visually reviewed all of the charts. I wasn’t enthused about the sells. I’m not a fan of exercises in top picking when we’re only looking at the charts once a week. Even if they break, the bounces come quickly. I chose 5 buys to add to the list, as shown, with charts below. Non-subscribers click here for access. I will start tracking the new picks based on a price assuming a half position at the open and half at the close today, January 30, 2024. I have added or adjusted stops on a few of the picks. The rest I’m giving room to breathe for this week. The table also shows picks to be closed out as of today’s open. Non-subscribers click here for access. Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access. Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted January 30 Report Share Posted January 30 According to strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co, the dominance of the top 10 stocks in the US equity market increasingly resembles the dotcom bubble, increasing the risk of a sell-off. The share of the 10 largest companies in the MSCI USA index, including all the so-called Magnificent Seven technology stocks, rose to 29.3% at the end of December. This is only slightly below the historical peak of 33.2% in June 2000.The strategists also note that only four sectors are represented in the top 10, compared to the historical median of six. "The key finding is that extreme concentration now poses a clear risk to equity markets in 2024. Just as a very limited number of stocks have been responsible for most of the gains in the MSCI US Index, declines in the top 10 could drag equity markets down." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted January 30 Report Share Posted January 30 I wonder why the FOMC hasn't gone back to the one day meeting? I remember that the crowd went wild when they had the first two day meeting but I can't guess when that was. At the time I wondered what would happen if they announced a 3 day meeting but all these years later going back to one day would have made more sense. I'm sure the lunches are nice. Do they get dinners too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurntOnce Posted January 30 Report Share Posted January 30 microsoft and the few other AI conglomerates are taking over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted January 30 Report Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, Jorma said: Do they get dinners too? Yes. At your cost. 😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 30 Author Report Share Posted January 30 2 hours ago, SiP said: According to strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co, the dominance of the top 10 stocks in the US equity market increasingly resembles the dotcom bubble, increasing the risk of a sell-off. The share of the 10 largest companies in the MSCI USA index, including all the so-called Magnificent Seven technology stocks, rose to 29.3% at the end of December. This is only slightly below the historical peak of 33.2% in June 2000.The strategists also note that only four sectors are represented in the top 10, compared to the historical median of six. "The key finding is that extreme concentration now poses a clear risk to equity markets in 2024. Just as a very limited number of stocks have been responsible for most of the gains in the MSCI US Index, declines in the top 10 could drag equity markets down." Similar to my findings. Hmmm.... The Danger Is that the Rally is Narrowly Based 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 30 Author Report Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, Jorma said: I wonder why the FOMC hasn't gone back to the one day meeting? I remember that the crowd went wild when they had the first two day meeting but I can't guess when that was. At the time I wondered what would happen if they announced a 3 day meeting but all these years later going back to one day would have made more sense. I'm sure the lunches are nice. Do they get dinners too? 1 minute ago, fxfox said: Yes. At your cost. 😂 And $129 billion in negative liabilities. Fed Balance Sheet Right Now Says Bears Should Get Ready to Rumble 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 30 Author Report Share Posted January 30 They're setting up to ram it to 5k Tamara. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 30 Author Report Share Posted January 30 Bloomberg is reporting that a Fed decision is due on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 30 Author Report Share Posted January 30 Who knew? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted January 30 Report Share Posted January 30 14 minutes ago, DrStool said: They're setting up to ram it to 5k Tamara. The Left is so desperate they even bomb it to 10k right in front of the election and if the Head of the BLS refuses to masssge the numbers as they want there will one of those famous „Helicopter accidents“ or some stuff from the „Final Destination“ playbook 😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 30 Author Report Share Posted January 30 That's ridiculous. Meanwhile, Republican governors are saying that the law is what they say it is. god almighty we are in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted January 30 Report Share Posted January 30 Google and msft both double beat but Google went down by I guess 8%. AMD tanked after results due to smaller free cash flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted January 30 Report Share Posted January 30 One cyclist guy calling for top of Spx based on days/waves Will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts