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Relentless Rally - 1/24/24

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Time marches on and so does the market on its upward path. Overnight, the ES 24 hour S&P futures rolled to new high after new high, finally hitting the measured move projection of the high base breakout at 4886. It bumped into an uptrend channel line twice, including as of 6:45 AM ET at 4885. That line is the only resistance that matters at the moment, and it rises to 4900 as of the NY close at 4 PM ET. If they clear it during the day, they're likely to run into a second line of resistance at 4900. If they are above that approaching the close, the next place to look for a stop would be 4920ish. And then every 20 points or so above that. But all of those lines are uptrending. 

In the unthinkable event of a pullback, the ES would need to be below 4860 around mid day to break anything. 


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The dealers have gone to an extreme of leverage against their bond positions for the second time since last July.  Back then, the extreme lasted for about a month, and it coincided with an intermediate top in stock prices and an accelerated decline in bond prices and the necessary inverse rise in yields.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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1600 calling the XOI... will be watching for the break back below 1800... then the fall to 1600 should not take long.

(barring a geopolitical event...)

The broader markets are under the delusion that lower energy prices are a good thing... the reality will soon become apparent... 

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