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Today 4880, Tomorrow the World 1/22/24

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Market didn't priced in

- back of goods inflation due to war

- problem with supply chains

- Taiwan war

- collapse of China

- renew of Ukraine war

- populist movement in EU after EU elections (June 2024)

I follow tech space and one thing still amaze me - they keep cutting the headcount. Google just announced layoffs, same in Switzerland (their hq). In Poland in h1 2023 Microsoft was laying of people, now again). So the earnings is delivered also on lower cost of operations. It's getting stretched.

In terms of AI - the cost of processing is absurd. Most Of the services had to cost like 20-50 use at lease to cover the cost of computing. Most of the free AI apps will not fly. For sure semis are still the winner.


Also I don't get at least one point. If there is so much risk associated with war, why oil stays flat? Shouldn't it reach at least 100 usd per barrel so energy stocks again are a bargain?

Same for copper. If the whole world is going for war why copper stays flat? What metal do you need to make guns, trucks, tanks etc? The whole sector should go up.

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1 hour ago, SiP said:


What about Germany, a good place to invest? Any recommend assets like discounted RE?

As long as the Green Communists reign I wouldn‘t invest a penny into Germany.

RE is just another asset class. I never understood all the drama about it. The returns are lousy over the decades. Just do what Bogle said and you will be far better off than with any RE investment. You have to have DEEP knowledge about any specific RE market. As a foreigner I would never invest in a RE market abroad. RE is to a large extend about tax laws and politics.

Prices do not really fall in Germany. The RE market is frozen. 

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